The Anonymous Widower

Lib Dems Dither Over More Runways In The South East

According to a report on the BBC web site the Lib Dems are thinking of making a U-turn over their aviation policy of no more runways in the South East. This is the first bit of the article.

The Liberal Democrats are heading for a possible U-turn over their opposition to airport expansion.

The party has been committed to a blanket ban on the construction of any new runways in south-east England.

But two Lib Dem MPs at the party’s conference in Glasgow have tabled an amendment that would allow Gatwick Airport to be exempted.

I have been feeling that the only policy on airports in the South East that will work in the short-term, is to wait until we’ve seen the Crossrail/Thameslink effect work its way through the system. This will make Central London an enormous terminal to the current three runways at Heathrow and Gatwick. No-one can predict how the passengers will react, but coupled with the growth of Manchester Airport, I suspect that the transfer traffic at both Heathrow and Gatwick airports will decrease as a proportion of traffic over the next few years.

As I write this note it has just been announced on the BBC that Virgin is closing their Little Red airline.

Virgin Atlantic has said it will stop running Little Red, its UK flight network launched in 2013, next year.

The flights between London Heathrow and Manchester will stop in March, while those between Heathrow and Edinburgh and Aberdeen will end in September.

Obviously, it hasn’t been bringing in the transfer passengers for Virgin’s long haul flights.

We should be pushing on with developments that will take the pressure of runways in the South East.

1. Eurostar has just announced that they are making Geneva services easier from St. Pancras. The trains could go to direct to places like Amsterdam, Cologne, Geneva and Lyon from London now, if only governments could sort out the political problems, like immigration and security.

As the European high-speed network grows, we could be seeing a large shift from plane to train, which will mean a big reduction in short-haul services from the South East airports.

The French are even talking about building a new line to make London to Paris under two hours. If they could make onward connections in Paris easier, it would increase the number of passengers going by train from London. Better and more welcoming French stations in the style of St. Pancras and Kings Cross would help too!

2. Over the next few years we will see a tremendous improvement in the rail services between Scotland and the South East. Both the East and West Coast Main Lines are being upgraded to remove bottlenecks and allow running at 225 kph, allowing Edinburgh  and Glasgow to be within the magic four hours from London. So will most passengers between the South East and Central Scotland, go by train at the end of this decade?

I think they will and we must do those improvements that make England Scotland rail services even better.

3. An interesting knock-on from the previous point, is that even today Glasgow to Heathrow Airport by train, takes well over two hours longer than going to Manchester Airport. The train services have increased in recent months, but Scots are increasingly seeing Manchester as their long-haul airport of choice.

We should be improving the rail links across the North of England as fast as we can, so that if you live North of the line between the Mersey and the Humber, you use Manchester as your long-haul airport.

All this can only make Manchester Airport a bigger rival to the airports in the South East. British Airways might not like it, but they should fly where the passengers are, not where they say they should be!

4. HS2 from London to Birmingham, will make is easier to go to Birmingham Airport from the South East. This extract is from Wikipedia.

According to Birmingham Airport‘s chief executive Paul Kehoe,  HS2 is a key element in increasing the number of flights using the airport, and patronage by inhabitants of London and the South-East, as HS2 will reduce travelling times to Birmingham Airport from London to under 40 minutes.

That makes Birmingham Airport closer to Central London than Stansted, so will we see more flights out of London Birmingham International.

5. Trains though, have some very big advantages advantages over flying.

• They generally go from city centre to city centre, where major cities are concerned.
• There is generally, no requirement to get to the station and be subjected to endless security checks, except possibly in Spain. It’s certainly turn up at the barrier with a valid ticket, which has often been purchased just a few minutes before, sit in your seat and go. When was air travel last like that?
• The UK is also showing the way with creating stations, which are very welcoming with decent shops, bars, cafes and restaurants. St. Pancras must rate with the best airports for what it provides the customer.
• But on the trains, we are seeing more and better services, with an improvement in on-board services like wi-fi and catering.

6. Virtually, the only advantage left to flying by air, is that you can drive to the airport and leave your car in the long-term car-park.

For many though, this is decreasingly becoming another facet in the old adage – Time to spare, go by air!

7. Those wanting a new runway in the South East are discounting ingenuity and innovation.

• Ryanair have said that they will be starting low-cost transatlantic services. Knowing them, they won’t be using an expensive airport in the South East.
• Icelandair have been very successful at getting passengers to split their transatlantic flight. So will we see the same happening in London? Perhaps fly from America to London, where you check out the city and then onward by train or short-haul flight to Europe. This will be more relaxing and London will benefit.
• Airliners will get bigger and quieter, so the amount of runway space we’ll need will be less, but the number of passengers through each airport will rise. The latest Boeing 737s to be delivered in 2017 will carry 220 passengers, as opposed to about 160 today. So if all airliners have that sort of increase in capacity, that is almost equivalent to an extra runway for Heathrow and Gatwick.

So perhaps we’ll get the extra capacity without building it?

But in the end are the passengers having the final say and not flying in the same ways they have for years?

I think that any political party that backs another runway in the South East wants its credentials examined.

October 7, 2014 - Posted by AnonW | Transport/Travel | Airports, Politics