A Road Scheme That Appears To Going Nowhere
This article on the BBC is entitled A57 Link Roads Mottram Bypass: Charity Seeks Judicial Review.
This is the sub-heading.
Environmental campaigners are seeking a judicial review of proposals designed to ease road congestion between Manchester and Sheffield.
And these are the first two paragraphs.
Plans for the A57 Link Roads Mottram Bypass scheme were boosted in November when Transport Minister Huw Merriman granted a development consent order.
But countryside charity the CPRE said there was no evidence building a new road “moves away a traffic problem”.
I remember this area well from the 1960s, when I was studying at Liverpool University and my parents lived in Felixstowe.
- There was no motorway across the Midlands between Coventry and Stafford and the alternative of the A5 was a nose-to-tail crawl.
- The M62 was still in the design phase.
So I took to using this cross-country route.
- A45 between Felixstowe and Huntingdon.
- A1 to Worksop, which was mainly dual-carriageway.
- A57 to Manchester, through Sheffield and Glossop, which was and still is single-track.
- A580 to Liverpool.
I think my best time was about five hours in a 1954 Morris Minor.
I feel, I must have gone through Mottram in Longdendale, judging by the map on the BBC article.
It is interesting to read the Wikipedia entry for the Longdendale Bypass, which starts like this.
The Longdendale Bypass (also known as the A57/A628 Mottram-in-Longdendale, Hollingworth & Tintwistle Bypass) is a long-planned road scheme in England by the Highways Agency. The aim is to alleviate traffic congestion on the A57 road/A628 road/A616 road routes that presently pass through the villages. There is both support and opposition for this long-planned scheme which will pass through the valley of Longdendale and part of the Peak District National Park.
The scheme was approved by the Highways Agency in 2014, so politicians have not exactly been quick off the mark.
These are some choice phrases from the Wikipedia entry.
- It is used by a relatively large number of heavy goods vehicles.
- Supporters of the scheme say that the A628 is one of the most congested A-road routes in the country.
- There is no viable alternative to a bypass.
- A survey in 2010 found that the junction of the A57 and M67 was the most congested in Manchester.
It is a disaster and the intervention by the CPRE will further delay a solution.
Conclusion
It is problems like this, that lead me to one solution.
On the one hand, you improve the railways and on the other you bring in universal road charging.
Hopefully passengers and freight will find a happy equilibrium.
But voters wouldn’t like it and any Government, that brought it in would lose the next election to a yet-to-be-formed Motorists Party.
Former US President Donald Trump Launches $99 NFT Trading Cards
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
Under images of two of the cards, one showing him as a roughneck with a shotgun and the other as a superhero, this is the first paragraph.
Former US President Donald Trump has launched a collection of digital trading cards depicting him in various guises including a superhero, astronaut and Nascar driver.
In the superhero picture he has a T on his chest.
I would think a W with an anchor would have been more appropriate.
Electrolyser System To Linde For Green Hydrogen Production In Niagara Falls, New York
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from Cummins.
This is the first paragraph.
Cummins Inc. will supply a 35-megawatt (MW) proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer system for Linde’s new hydrogen production plant in Niagara Falls, New York. Once commissioned, Cummins’ electrolyzer system will power Linde’s largest green hydrogen plant in the U.S., marking significant progress in moving the green hydrogen economy forward.
Note.
- The electrolyser will be powered by hydroelectricity.
- Linde have a strategic investment in iTM Power, who are a British manufacturer of electrolysers.
- ITM Linde Electrolysis is a joint venture between iTM Power and Linde.
Why did Linde choose Cummins over iTM Power?
Is it down to cost, delivery, politics or quality?
€1m Qatar Corruption Scandal Rocks European Parliament
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article in The Times.
This is the sub-heading.
A senior MEP and three officials have been charged with corruption, money laundering and participating in a criminal organisation.
As Cilla would have said “Surprise Surprise!”
Small Nuclear Power Plants To Replace Gas In Quest For Net Zero
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on The Times.
I was very much involved in the writing of project management software in the last three decades of the last century and if there’s one thing we’re generally good at in the UK, it’s complex project management.
Usually problems arise because of political or ignorant senior management meddling.
Our Energy Saviours
I believe our two energy saviours will be floating offshore wind and small nuclear reactors (SMRs) and both need good project management to be built successfully on production lines.
So I don’t see any reason, why we can’t build large numbers of floating offshore wind farms to supply our electricity.
They are also complimentary, in that the fleet of SMRs back up the wind.
Floating Wind First
Floating wind is likely to be developed at scale first, as certifying anything involving nuclear will take an inordinate time.
The electricity from floating wind farms will keep us going, but it is also starting to develop a nice line in exports.
This press release from Drax is entitled Britain Sending Europe Power Lifeline – Report, where this is the sub-title.
For the first time in over a decade, Britain became a net exporter of electricity to its European neighbours, making around £1.5bn for the economy in three months.
Note.
- The report was written by Imperial College.
- Two new interconnectors; Viking Link and NeuConnect between the UK and Europe are under construction.
- Several large wind farms are under construction and will be commissioned in 2023/24 and could add over 4 GW to UK electricity production.
Exports will only get better.
A Sprint For Wind
So we must have a sprint for wind, which will then provide the cash flow to allow the SMRs to roll in.
Or will that be too much for the ultra-greens, who would object to cash-flow from GWs of wind being used to fund SMRs?
Should I Get Depressed About A World Ruled By Putin, Trump And Xi?
When I read the reports of the mid-term elections in the United States, Putin’s War in Ukraine and Chairman Xi’s coronation as Emperor for Life, I despair.
As I suspect do many others!
The First Of The Cavalry Arrive To Rescue Kwasi Kwarteng
Most commentators think Kwasi Kwarteng is in trouble, but I feel that he has the strength of the mathematics around him.
This press release from BP was released on Wednesday and is entitled UK Offshore Wind: Laying The Groundwork Today.
These two paragraphs outline the work BP are doing to develop wind power in the Irish Sea.
Plans are critical, but it’s putting them into action that counts. As part of our strategy to get wind turbines turning, specialist vessels and crew are out on the Irish Sea undertaking massive seabed survey work. It’s an early but important step on the road to building some of the UK’s biggest offshore wind farms.
Once up and running, our Morgan and Mona projects could deliver enough capacity to power 3.4 million homes with clean electricity and help the UK to meet its climate goals. Their near-shore location – around 30 kilometres off the coast of northwest England and north Wales – will allow for lower-cost, more reliable transmission infrastructure, making them a core part of our plans for more secure and lower carbon energy for the UK.
This EnBW-BP infographic describes the project.
Note.
- BP’s partner is EnBW, who are a publicly-traded German energy company.
- There is a project web site.
- The press release and the graphic are showing the same numbers.
- Morgan and Mona will use proven fixed-foundation wind turbine technology.
- The combined site is around 800 km² or a square of under thirty kilometers, so it is only quite small in the context of the Irish Sea.
- First operation is given on the web site as 2028.
As BP and enBW have massive financial, engineering and project management resources, I believe they will look to bring the 2028 operation date as far forward as is possible.
If you do the cash flow for a project like this, especially when you have the financial and engineering resources of BP and enBW, the mathematics show that if you can accelerate the installation of the turbines, you will start to have a cashflow earlier and this will finance the debt needed to install the wind farms.
Consider.
- I believe the 2028 date, is one that BP know they can keep, to satisfy the Stock Market and investors.
- BP have large cash flows from their profitable oil and gas businesses.
- BP have probably reserved places in the manufacturing queues for wind turbines, foundations and all the electrical gubbins to connect the turbines to shore.
- BP want to prove to themselves and sceptics, that they can handle the building of wind farms.
- The are already lots of wind farms along the North Wales Coast, so I suspect that the problems of building wind farms in the Irish Sea are well known.
I will not speculate on the date that Mona and Morgan are complete, but I very much doubt it will be in 2028.
These are some more thoughts from the BP press release.
What’s Happening And Why?
The purpose of these deep geotechnical investigations, carried out by specialist Geo-data company Fugro, up to 100 metres below the seabed is to determine soil characteristics for foundation design (find out how it’s done in the short film, above). Collecting this data will enable bp and EnBW to build efficient offshore wind farms with the least environmental impact. It is crucial for securing government consents for the projects and defining the structure and location of the individual turbines.
Even thirty kilometres off shore, there needs to be detailed planning permission.
Our Other Offshore Wind Projects
We aim to become a leader in offshore wind and, over the past three years, we’ve built up a pipeline of projects with partners in both the US and UK that have the potential to power more than 5 million homes.
And earlier this year, we agreed to form a partnership with Marubeni to explore an offshore wind development in Japan.
It’s all part of our aim to have 20GW of developed renewable generating capacity by 2025 and 50GW by 2030 – that’s broadly enough to power the needs of 36 million people.
Note.
- Their ambitions are high, but then so much of the experience of offshore oil and gas can be applied to offshore wind.
- BP has the cashflow from oil and gas to reinvent itself.
- Assuming a strike price of £40/MWh and an average capacity factor of 30 %, that is an income of around five billion pounds for starters.
- If they added energy storage to the wind farms, there’s even more money to be generated.
As Equinor, Ørsted and SSE have shown, you have to be big in this business and BP aim to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest.
Conclusion
Wind farms like Mona and Morgan, and there are several under development, will create the electricity and revenue, that will come to the rescue of the Chancellor.
As I update this after a busy day, it looks like Jeremy Hunt has inherited KK’s excellent groundwork and mathematics.
An Update To Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?
My Methods
Project Timescales For Wind Farms
In How Long Does It Take To Build An Offshore Wind Farm?, I came to these conclusions.
- It will take six years or less from planning consent to commissioning.
- It will take two years or less from the start of construction to commissioning.
I shall use these timescales, as any accelerations by the government, will only reduce them.
Dates
If a date is something like 2024/25, I will use the latest date. i.e. 2025 in this example.
The Update
In Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?, which I wrote in July this year, I did a calculation of how much renewable energy would come on stream in the next few years.
I summarised the amount of new renewable energy coming on stream like this.
- 2022 – 3200 MW
- 2023 – 1500 MW
- 3024 – 2400 MW
- 2025 – 6576 MW
- 2026 – 1705 MW
- 2027 – 7061 GW
This totals to 22442 MW.
But I had made two omissions.
- Hornsea 3 wind farm will add 2582 MW in 2026/27.
- Hinckley Point C nuclear power station will add 3260 MW in 2027.
Ørsted have also brought forward the completion date of the Sofia wind farm to 2023, which moves 1400 GW from 2024 to 2023.
The new renewables summary figures have now changed to.
- 2022 – 3200 MW
- 2023 – 2925 MW
- 3024 – 1326 MW
- 2025 – 6576 MW
- 2026 – 1705 MW
- 2027 – 13173 MW
This totals to 28554 MW.
Note.
- The early delivery of the Sofia wind farm has increased the amount of wind farms coming onstream next year, which will help the Winter of 2023/2024.
- It will also help the Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng government at the next election, that should take place in early 2025.
- Hornsea 3 and Hinckley Point C make 2027 a big year for new renewable energy commissioning.
By 2027, we have more than doubled our renewable energy generation.
The Growth Plan 2022
In this document from the Treasury, the following groups of wind farms are listed for acceleration.
- Remaining Round 3 Projects
- Round 4 Projects
- Extension Projects
- Scotwind Projects
- INTOG Projects
- Floating Wind Commercialisation Projects
- Celtic Sea Projects
I will look at each in turn.
Remaining Round 3 Projects
In this group are the the 1200 MW Dogger Bank B and Dogger Bank C wind farms, which are due for commissioning in 2024/25.
Suppose that as with the Sofia wind farm in the same area, they were to be able to be brought forward by a year.
The new renewables summary figures would change to.
- 2022 – 3200 MW
- 2023 – 2925 MW
- 3024 – 3726 MW
- 2025 – 5076 MW
- 2026 – 1705 MW
- 2027 – 13173 MW
This totals to 28554 MW.
It looks like if Dogger Bank B and Dogger Bank C can be accelerated by a year, it has four effects.
- The renewables come onstream at a more constant rate.
- SSE and Equinor, who are developing the Dogger Bank wind farms start to get paid earlier.
- The UK gets more electricity earlier, which helps bridge the gap until Hornsea 3 and Hinckley Point C come onstream in 2027.
- The UK Government gets taxes and lease fees from the Dogger Bank wind farms at an earlier date.
Accelerating the remaining Round 3 projects would appear to be a good idea.
Round 4 Projects
According to Wikipedia’s list of proposed wind farms, there are six Round 4 wind farms, which total up to 7026 MW.
Accelerating these projects, is probably a matter of improved government regulations and pressure, and good project management.
But all time savings in delivering the wind farms benefits everybody all round.
This document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity.
Many of these projects are smaller projects and I suspect quite a few are shovel ready.
But as with the big wind farms, there are some projects that can be brought forward to everybody’s benefit.
Norfolk Boreas
Norfolk Boreas wind farm is one of the Round 4 projects.
The wind farm is shown as 1400 MW on Wikipedia.
On the web site, it now says construction will start in 2023, which could mean a completion by 2025, as these projects seem to take about two years from first construction to commissioning, as I showed in How Long Does It Take To Build An Offshore Wind Farm?.
The new renewables summary figures would change to.
- 2022 – 3200 MW
- 2023 – 2925 MW
- 3024 – 3726 MW
- 2025 – 6476 MW
- 2026 – 1705 MW
- 2027 – 11773 MW
This still totals to 28554 MW.
This acceleration of a large field would be beneficial, as the 2025 figure has increased substantially.
I would suspect that Vattenfall are looking hard to accelerate their Norfolk projects.
Extension Projects
I first talked about extension projects in Offshore Wind Extension Projects 2017.
The target was to add 2.85 GW of offshore wind and in the end seven projects were authorised.
- Sheringham Shoal offshore wind farm – 719 MW with Dudgeon
- Dudgeon offshore wind farm – 719 MW with Sheringham Shoal
- Greater Gabbard offshore wind farm
- Galloper offshore wind farm
- Rampion offshore wind farm – 1200 MW
- Gwynt y Môr offshore wind farm – 1100 MW
- Thanet offshore wind farm – 340 MW
These are the best figures I have and they add up to an interim total of 3359 MW.
I suspect that these projects could be easy to accelerate, as the developers have probably been designing these extensions since 2017.
I think it is reasonable to assume that these seven wind farms will add at least 3000 MW, that can be commissioned by 2027.
The new renewables summary figures would change to.
- 2022 – 3200 MW
- 2023 – 2925 MW
- 3024 – 3726 MW
- 2025 – 6476 MW
- 2026 – 1705 MW
- 2027 – 14773 MW
This now totals to 31554 MW.
Accelerating the extension projects would be a good idea, especially, as they were awarded some years ago, so are probably well into the design phase.
ScotWind Projects
I first talked about ScotWind in ScotWind Offshore Wind Leasing Delivers Major Boost To Scotland’s Net Zero Aspirations.
It was planned to do the following.
- Generate 9.7 GW from six wind farms with fixed foundations.
- Generate 14.6 GW from ten floating wind farms.
But since then three more floating wind farms with a total capacity of 2800 MW have been added, as I wrote about in Three Shetland ScotWind Projects Announced.
I suspect that some of these projects are ripe for acceleration and some may well be generating useful electricity by 2030 or even earlier.
INTOG Projects
I wrote about INTOG in What Is INTOG?.
I can see the INTOG Projects contributing significantly to our fleet of offshore wind turbines.
I have already found a 6 GW/£30 billion project to decarbonise oil and gas rigs around our shores, which is proposed by Cerulean Winds and described on this web page.
If the other large INTOG projects are as good as this one, then we’ll be seeing some sensational engineering.
Floating Wind Commercialisation Projects
This page on the Carbon Trust website is entitled Floating Wind Joint Industry Programme (JIP).
They appear to be very much involved in projects like these.
The page has this description.
The Floating Wind Joint Industry Programme is a world leading collaborative research and development (R&D) initiative dedicated to overcoming technological challenges and advancing commercialisation of floating offshore wind.
This graphic shows the partners and advisors.
Most of the big wind farm builders and turbine and electrical gubbins manufacturers are represented.
Celtic Sea Projects
The Celtic Sea lies between South-East Ireland, Pembrokeshire and the Devon and Cornwall peninsular.
The Crown Estate kicked this off with press release in July 2022, that I wrote about in The Crown Estate Announces Areas Of Search To Support Growth Of Floating Wind In The Celtic Sea.
This map shows the five areas of search.
One Celtic Sea project has already been awarded a Contract for Difference in the Round 4 allocation, which I wrote about in Hexicon Wins UK’s First Ever CfD Auction For Floating Offshore Wind.
Other wind farms have already been proposed for the Celtic Sea.
In DP Energy And Offshore Wind Farms In Ireland, I said this.
They are also developing the Gwynt Glas offshore wind farm in the UK sector of the Celtic Sea.
- In January 2022, EDF Renewables and DP Energy announced a Joint Venture partnership to combine their knowledge and
expertise, in order to participate in the leasing round to secure seabed rights to develop up to 1GW of FLOW in the Celtic Sea. - The wind farm is located between Pembroke and Cornwall.
The addition of Gwynt Glas will increase the total of floating offshore wind in the UK section of the Celtic Sea.
- Blue Gem Wind – Erebus – 100 MW Demonstration project – 27 miles offshore
- Blue Gem Wind – Valorus – 300 MW Early-Commercial project – 31 miles offshore
- Falck Renewables and BlueFloat Energy – Petroc – 300 MW project – 37 miles offshore
- Falck Renewables and BlueFloat Energy – Llywelyn – 300 MW project – 40 miles offshore
- Llŷr Wind – 100 MW Project – 25 miles offshore
- Llŷr Wind – 100 MW Project – 25 miles offshore
- Gwynt Glas – 1000 MW Project – 50 miles offshore
This makes a total of 2.2 GW, with investors from several countries.
It does seem that the Celtic Sea is becoming the next area of offshore wind around the British Isles to be developed.
How do these wind farms fit in with the Crown Estate’s plans for the Celtic Sea?
I certainly, don’t think that the Crown Estate will be short of worthwhile proposals.
Conclusion
More and more wind farms keep rolling in.
Are The Tories Bluffing About Fracking?
I’ve just listened to a Treasury Minister (Chris Philp (?)) on the BBC and he didn’t mention fracking.
But he did mention more oil and gas in the North Sea, where there is a project agreed between the British and Scottish governments called INTOG, which aims to innovatively cut carbon emissions in the North Sea and possibly extract smaller amounts of gas and oil from existing wells.
As you know, I think fracking is irrelevant. It will take a few years to deliver substantial amounts of gas and we can extract more from the North Sea and by repurposing existing wells.
We might even find one or two existing wells, that could be converted to much-needed gas storage.
I also believe that the cash flow in taxes and leases from offshore wind will be astronomic and it can be used to finance borrowing. We did the same with Artemis to finance the company against future sales. But we were only borrowing millions. We used to parcel up all our leases from companies like Shell, NASA and BP and effectively sell them to Lloyds Bank at a discount.
I’m sure that a clever banker could find a mechanism, that converts future income from offshore wind into a magic money tree for today. Is that what Kwasi Kwarteng has done, in order to cut taxes?
The one problem with offshore wind with the public, is that putting in the cables arouses the NIMBYs. It should also be born in mind, that a lot of the grid connections, go through Tory seats, where NIMBYs are very much against more cables.
So I do wonder, if Moggy has announced the start of fracking to give the NIMBYs a target, so they allow the efficiency of offshore oil and gas to be improved and offshore wind farms to be built without hindrance.
Perhaps Moggy should concentrate on the most important thing that our offshore wind industry needs. This is an innovative pricing mechanism for energy storage, that does the following.
- Allows investors to get a similar return on energy storage to that that they get for offshore wind farms, onshore solar farms and interconnectors.
- Encourages the building of more energy storage.
- Assists in the development of novel energy storage ideas.
As one estimate says we need 600 GWh of energy storage in the UK, sorting this pricing mechanism, can’t come soon enough.
The previous government was talking about this, as I wrote in Ministerial Roundtable Seeks To Unlock Investment In UK Energy Storage.
So continue the conversation, Moggy!
Where Are The Magnificent Eighteen?
In the two classic Japanese and American films of the fifties, there were seven saviours, who worked together.
This page on the Highview Power web site talks about their proposed CRYOBattery in Yorkshire, where this is said.
Highview Power’s second commercial renewable energy power station in the UK is a 200MW/2.5GWh facility in Yorkshire. This is the first of 18 sites for UK wide deployment strategically located to benefit from the existing transmission infrastructure.
As the UK’s energy problem is much worse than the problems in the films, perhaps we need more saviours.
In this article on the Telegraph, which is entitled Britain Will Soon Have A Glut Of Cheap Power, And World-Leading Batteries To Store It, Rupert Pearce, who is Highview’s chief executive, is quoted as saying the following.
Highview is well beyond the pilot phase and is developing its first large UK plant in Humberside, today Britain’s top hub for North Sea wind. It will offer 2.5GW for over 12 hours, or 0.5GW for over 60 hours, and so forth, and should be up and running by late 2024.
Further projects will be built at a breakneck speed of two to three a year during the 2020s, with a target of 20 sites able to provide almost 6GW of back-up electricity for four days at a time, or whatever time/power mix is optimal.
Is this Humberside CRYOBattery, the one on the web site described as in Yorkshire? It’s certainly in the old East Riding.
In Highview Power’s Plan To Add Energy Storage To The UK Power Network, I came to the conclusion, that the Humberside CRYOBattery will most likely be built near Creyke Beck substation, which is close to Cottingham.
- Dogger Bank A, Dogger Bank B and Hornsea 4 offshore wind farms will all be connected to the Creyke Beck substation.
- These wind farms have a total capacity of 3.4 GW.
- The Humberside CRYOBattery, now looks to have a maximum output of 2.5 GW.
- It looks like the Humberside CRYOBattery would be a well-matched backup to the three planned wind farms and perhaps even a few more turbines.
Building the Humberside CRYOBattery at Creyke Beck substation would appear to be a sensible decision.
We Only Have Half A Story
It looks like we’ve only got half a story, with a lot of detail missing.
- Will there be eighteen or twenty of Highview Power’s CRYOBatteries?
- Will they have a power output of 400 MW or nearly 6 GW for four hours?
- Will they have a storage capacity of 2.5 GWh or 30 GWh?
- Is the web site or the CEO correct?
- Have Highview Power and National Grid signed a deal for the next few CRYOBatteries?
I am expecting to see a big press statement at some time, perhaps even in the next few days, that will clear everything up.
If it was me, I would invite the new Prime Minister to the opening of the Carrington CRYOBattery and make the statement there.
The joint publicity could be equally valuable to both the Prime Minister and Highview Power.
The Anonymous Widower 