The Anonymous Widower

Equilibrium With The Covids

The rate of lab confirmed cases in six cities per 100,000 of the population are as follows.

  • London – 836.6
  • Leeds – 2128
  • Liverpool – 2113.6
  • Manchester – 2879.6
  • Sheffield – 2291.2
  • Hull – 1013.9

In addition, if you look at many individual London boroughs, they are around the 600-900 range.

Is There A London Equilibrium?

As London is a more-or-less coherent entity has  the virus found an equilibrium with the city?

As a Control Engineer, I think London is showing a classic example of water finding its own level.

I would suspect that the average Londoner, visits a couple of other boroughs very regularly.

Does this mean that the virus gets transferred regularly across borough boundaries and this levels things up?

Is There A Northern Equilibrium?

It also looks like the virus has found a higher equilibrium with the Northern cities.

If you look at other areas in the North, that sit between the major cities, they seem in line with rates in Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds..

The city that is out of line is Hull, which has a rate half that of the others. Could this be because of its location?

Suffolk In The Sixties

I remember Suffolk in the 1960s, when it was three counties; East Suffolk, West Suffolk and Ipswich.

All counties had different pub opening hours  people would drive miles to get an extra half-hour of drinking.

I wonder if the different regulations and lock-downs across the various parts of the North have actually increased travel across regions and spread the virus.

This behaviour has created an equilibrium between the virus and the population.

Is There A East Anglian Equilibrium?

These are the figures for the three East Anglian counties.

  • Cambridgeshire – 596
  • Norfolk – 536
  • Suffolk – 531

There is not a large spread in the figures.

Other Areas

I have looked at other areas and a similar pattern seems to apply, where the figures are more or less the same in somewhere like the West Midlands, the South West (Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset and Wiltshire) or Wales.

October 21, 2020 Posted by | Health, Uncategorized | , , , , , | 4 Comments

Will The Return Of Strictly Cause The Number Of Cases Of The Covids To Drop?

The phrase Bread and Circuses, was apparently first used by Juvenal, who was a Roman poet

During the covids, Asda, Morrisons, Sainsburys, Tesco, Waitrose and others have delivered the bread.

And now the BBC is bringing on the circuses with the start of the new series of Strictly from tomorrow.

If the rate does drop, the Government should buy up the latest James Bond film and show it on a Friday night.

 

 

October 16, 2020 Posted by | Health | , , , | Leave a comment

How Covids-Unfriendly Is A Class 345 Train?

These pictures show Crossrail’s Class 345 trains.

Note.

  1. This example was a nine-car train going to Heathrow.
  2. It is 205 metres long and can carry 1500 passengers.
  3. As with most London Underground trains, most of the passengers sit longitudinally.
  4. Having watched people on these trains several times in the last few weeks and feel that the design encourages social-distancing

But there are other big advantages, when it comes to suppressing the virus.

  1. Each car has three sets of sliding doors on each side, which is more than most trains. As the lobbies on the train are spacious, does this help the maintaining of social-distancing, when entering and leaving the train.
  2. The trains are walk-through, so if you end up with a car, that is full of mask deniers, it is easy to move.
  3. The trains have full air-conditioning, which should reduce the amount of virus in the air.

I hope Transport for London are watching the statistics for the covids, to see if they go up or down, as more new trains are introduced on Crossrail routes.

October 15, 2020 Posted by | Design, Health, Transport | , , | 5 Comments

How Would Opening Crossrail Affect The Covids In London?

There seems to be very little on the Internet about this, that I can find, Partly because if you search for Crossrail and Covid-19 you get lots of articles about how the virus is delaying construction.

These are a few of my thoughts.

The Class 345 Trains

Crossrail’s Class 345 trains are 205 metres long and can hold 1500 passengers.

  • The passenger density is 7.3 passengers per metre, but the trains have three doors per car, as opposed to others like the Class 700 trains, which have a similar passenger density and only two doors.
  • Would the space and the wide doors, make social-distancing easier at all times?
  • I’ve ridden these trains several times during the pandemic and their full air-conditioning for the tunnels, would surely be ideal to help keep the trains free of the virus, by changing the air regularly.
  • The trains are walk-through, which means you can walk-away from someone who looks dodgy.

There will probably be some better trains to reduce the spreading of the virus, but I doubt there will be that many.

The Stations

I’ve only been in two Crossrail stations.

These are pictures taken in the Woolwich station box.

October 15, 2020 Posted by | Design, Health, Transport | , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Alternative Funding Seems To Be Doing Well

I watch a couple of crowdfunding sites and they certainly seem to be still attracting funds.

I have recently invested a small sum in Cornish Lithium, as I like both the technology and history of the company.

Their round of crowdfunding is coming to an end, as they have raised £4.5 million against a target of £1.5 million.

It certainly appears that there is money for a good company in these troubled times.

October 14, 2020 Posted by | Finance, Health | , , , | Leave a comment

The Liverpool And Hackney Puzzle

I know Liverpool well, as I was there as a student in the 1960s and now help fund cancer research in the University.

I now live in Hackney, which is a very mixed borough in London and not unlike lots of Liverpool in parts.

It puzzles me and some of the researchers I know in Liverpool, why Liverpool has a rate of the covids, which is five times higher than it is where I live.

October 14, 2020 Posted by | Health | , , | 1 Comment

Any Politician Who Advocates A Circuit Breaker Is Ignoring The Dynamics

As a Control Engineer, trying to control things with an on-off control like a circuit breaker is like trying to ride a bike only turning hard left or hard right.

We need to apply lots of small actions to nudge the pandemic to a safe equilibrium with the UK population.

  • A small action, I would do is shut betting shops, as this can be done on-line and most are owned by big groups, so commercial damage wouldn’t be great. Some staff surely could be redeployed.
  • I would also close down all religious services with more than six people. Obviously, God is working on a bigger project at the moment and is too busy to help with the pandemic.
  • I would also encourage working from home where possible, as that has been shown to reduce spread.

But perhaps we need to take some serious dramatic action.

Why not release the latest James Bond film on a Saturday evening on free-to-air television? And do it worldwide, except to China!

It wouldn’t do the cinemas any good, but if they got on with the next one, if this one is any good, everybody will flock to see it.

October 13, 2020 Posted by | Health | , , , , | 3 Comments

Hull Trains Seat Allocation System

When I went to Hull recently, I used Hull Trains.

 

These pictures show the train as I boarded at London Kings Cross.

When I got my ticket out of the machine, I was very surprised to see the phrase No Specified Seat on the ticket.

I queried it with one of the LNER staff and they said, it will be alright and anyway, it is nothing to do with them.

When I got to the gate, I asked the guy from Hull Trains and he said, you’ll see when you get inside and something like. “Sit in any seat with a green flag!”

You can see the coloured flags on the seats in the pictures. The different colours mean.

  • Green – For single travellers
  • Red – Do not sit here
  • Yellow – For two or more travelling together.

So I choose a window seat with a green flag on it.

Did it work?

  • There were no families, but several  pairs of travellers and I suspect about sixty percent of the seats were taken.
  • Everybody was socially distanced and either had a spare seat or someone they knew next to them.
  • At one table, I could see four guys all sitting together,
  • The system deals with no-shows and leaves their seat for someone else.

Until proven otherwise, I think it worked well.

  • I didn’t get allocated a seat, but I’m certain the system would work well if say some seats had been allocated by the booking computer.
  • Seats could also be indicated by coloured lights.
  • But as Hull Trains had only just restarted after the attack of the covids.

I had to have a quiet smile though.

My father was a master at designing production control systems and coloured cards were one of the tools in his box.

Often cards for his big customers like Belling, Dunlop and Enfield Rolling Mills were intricate and numbered creations, all produced with letterpress and his two faithful Original Heidelberg Plattern Presses.

 

Original Heidelberg

With the right gadgets in the chase, that held the type, they could number, score and perforate. You couldn’t do those operations with litho, in the 1950s and 1960s.

I hadn’t realised much about this side of my father’s work, until I met Ray Askew, whilst walking our basset hound. He had a basset too and on talking,  it turned out he had worked for Enfield Rolling Mills and it was part of his job to source production control documents and he used to design them with my father, whose firm, then printed them!

Could This System Be Used On East Coast Trains?

East Coast Trains are another First Group company like Hull Trains, who will be running services between London and Edinburgh from some time next year.

I can’t see why they could use a developed version of this system, with tri-colour lights on the seats.

East Coast Trains will be aiming for a four hour service and I suspect they’d like people to just turn up and go, so quick ticketing would be needed. A simple app, where you said how many tickets and what train and then you just turned up in time for your train would do.

 

 

October 13, 2020 Posted by | Design, Health, Transport | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why The Covids Are Worse In The North

Dr. Chris Smith is BBC Radio 5’s tame virologist and he talks more sense that most on the Covids.

Asked by Adrian Chiles, why the Covids are worse in the North, he made following points.

  • The Covids are following a similar pattern to flu.
  • Flu tends to like colder climate, so is more prevalent in the North.
  • He also indicated, that because London had a bad dose of the Covids earlier in the year, London may be closer to some form of herd immunity.

If you can catch-up with what he said, it’s probably worth a listen.

October 9, 2020 Posted by | Health | , , | 5 Comments

Covid Humour

I have yet to hear any good humour about the covids.

Although an incident this morning at my local station was thought funny by those present at the time.

  • The large lifts at the station are now limited to six passengers at a time.
  • A couple of other passengers and myself, were waiting to descend, when an enormously pregnant lady appeared at the lift doors.
  • She smiled and asked! “Have you got room for another two?”
  • A guy in the lift, pointed to everyone and did a quick count on his fingers.
  • He then said. ‘Not if you’re expecting triplets, Madam!”

We were all laughing and smiling, as we walked to the trains.

October 7, 2020 Posted by | Health, Transport, World | , | Leave a comment