An Interesting Correlation With Job Creation
Today, the Centre For Cities published their Cities Outlook 2015. The report is discussed here on the BBC web site, in a report entitled Economic growth ‘dramatically’ diverges between North and South.
They compare the top five cities; Milton Keynes, London, Cambridge, Brighton and Bournemouth for job creation with the five worst; Gloucester, Rochdale, Blackpool, Newport and Hull and conclude that the performance difference is due to the five best being in the south-east.
They can make their point, but if you look at the next five best and worst, I believe another pattern is starting to emerge.
In sixth to tenth place are Portsmouth, Coventry, Newcastle, Aberdeen and Nottingham and the next five worst are Grimsby, Huddersfield, Swindon, Wigan and Burnley.
I’m going to put a list of the top and bottom cities together with how many trains there are with less than two changes to London after 20:00 and what the time of the last direct or one-change train leaves.
This is the top ten.
Milton Keynes – > >20 trains with last train 00:24
London – N/A
Cambridge – >20 with last train 23:22
Brighton – 15 trains with last train 23:05
Bournemouth – 7 trains with last train 23:12
Portsmouth – 12 trains with last train 23:19
Coventry – 11 trains with last train 23:31
Newcastle – 3 trains with last train 21:15
Aberdeen – Not relevant, but you can fly after 20:00
Nottingham – 5 trains with last train 21:32
And this is the bottom ten.
Burnley – 1 train with last train 20:12
Wigan – 3 trains with last train 21:28
Swindon – 6 trains with last train 23:16
Huddersfield – 4 trains with last train 21:12
Grimsby – 1 train with last train 20:34
Hull – 2 trains with last train 20:57
Newport – 3 trains with last train 21:43
Blackpool – 1 train with last train 20:21
Rochdale – 1 train with last train 20:00
Gloucester – 3 trains with last train at 22:14.
I think it is true to say that for the top ten in the creating jobs table, they have much better return trains to London in the evening than the bottom ten.
Some of those in the bottom ten like Grimsby, Hull, Blackpool and Rochdale have truly dreadful services back to London.
I haven’t looked at the outward journey in any detail, but surely if the return is bad, the outward journey would be of a reduced standard.
So some of these cities are not only a long way to drive, but a complete pain on the train. Would you establish or expand a manufacturing plant or offices, if you knew that every trip might have to incorporate an overnight stay? Given that you could now fly to a lot of places in Europe, do a day’s work sand return to your own bed.
It is my view that we could improve the productivity of decision makers , many of whom are based in the London area, solely because London has such a large population, by ensuring that every major town and city south of Hadrian’s Wall could be reached from the capital in a reasonable time with no more than a single change.
One effect of this would be to create a multiplicity of places, where perhaps a new factory was located, or you’d be going to get something you needed manufactured. All too often, certain cities have advantages over their rivals, as when the money was being dolled out a few years ago, they got an improved railway or a better station.
The Anonymous Widower 
Careful. Which is the cause and which the effect. Correlation without causation is a dangerous business.
Comment by John Wright | January 19, 2015 |
I would agree. But you can take similar cities a similar distance away from London, with very different train services and the job creation doesn’t fit the expected pattern. Bournemouth is the interesting one and it has rather a unique return service to London, when compared to say Liverpool or Sheffield.
A lot of the bad services are traditional. A friend told me that there has never been a late train back from Sheffield. Could it be that when they electrified the Bournemouth line in the 1960s, they brought in late trains to get them in the right position for the morning. It will be interesting to see what the service patterns are after electrification on the Great Western and Midland Main Lines.
One group who are particularly aggrieved at the current lack of late trains are football supporters. With many clubs, it is impossible to get back to London after an evening match. As fans tend to be displaced all over the country these days, it may not be a big problem for many, but it is a moan I hear all the time.
Comment by AnonW | January 20, 2015 |