The Anonymous Widower

UK Offshore Wind In 2030

The next general election is likely to be held in 2029, so how much wind energy will be added during the next Parliament?

The Current Position

The Wikipedia entry for the list of operational wind farms in the UK, says this.

In October 2023, there were offshore wind farms consisting of 2,695 turbines with a combined capacity of 14,703 megawatts.

Due To Be Commissioned In 2024

It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2024.

• Neart Na Gaoithe – 450 MW – Fixed
• Doggerbank A – 1235 MW – Fixed
• Doggerbank B – 1235 MW – Fixed

This would add 2920 MW to give a total of 17,623 MW.

Due To Be Commissioned In 2025

It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2025.

• Moray West – 882 MW – Fixed
• Doggerbank C – 1218 MW – Fixed

This would add 2100 MW to give a total of 19,723 MW.

Due To Be Commissioned In 2026

It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2026.

• Sofia – 1400 MW – Fixed
• East Anglia 3 – 1372 MW – Fixed
• East Anglia 1 North – 800 MW – Fixed
• East Anglia 2 – 900 MW – Fixed
• Pentland – 100 MW – Floating

This would add 4572 MW to give a total of 24,295 MW.

Due To Be Commissioned In 2027

It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2027.

• Hornsea 3 – 2852 MW – Fixed
• Norfolk Boreas – 1380 MW – Fixed
• Llŷr 1 – 100 MW – Floating
• Llŷr 2 – 100 MW – Floating
• Whitecross – 100 MW – Floating

This would add 4532 MW to give a total of 28,827 MW.

Due To Be Commissioned In 2028

It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2028.

• Morecambe – 480 MW – Fixed

This would add 480 MW to give a total of 29,307 MW.

Due To Be Commissioned In 2029

It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2029.

• West Of Orkney – 2000 MW – Fixed

This would add 2000 MW to give a total of 31,307 MW.

Due To Be Commissioned In 2030

It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2030.

• Ramplion 2 Extension – 1200 MW – Fixed
• Norfolk Vanguard East – 1380 MW – Fixed
• Norfolk Vanguard West – 1380 MW – Fixed
• Awel y Môr – 1100 MW – Fixed
• Berwick Bank – 4100 MW – Fixed
• Outer Dowsing – 1500 MW – Fixed
• Hornsea 4 – 2600 MW – Fixed
• Caledonia – 2000 MW – Fixed
• N3 Project – 495 MW – Fixed/Floating

This would add 15755 MW to give a total of 47.062 MW.

Capacity Summary

• 2023 – None – 14703 MW
• 2024 – 2920 MW – 17,623 MW
• 2025 – 2100 MW – 19,723 MW
• 2026 – 4572 MW – 24,295 MW
• 2027 – 4532 MW- 28,827 MW
• 2028 – 480 MW – 29,307 MW
• 2029 – 2000 MW – 31,307 MW
• 2030 – 15755 MW – 47,062 MW

Note that capacity has increased more than threefold.

If we assume the following.

• New wind farms are commissioned throughout the year.
• 14703 MW of wind power, with all our gas-fired, nuclear and onshore wind farms is enough to power the UK.
• The average capacity factor is 45 %.
• The strike price is £35/MWh.

The levels I have set are deliberately on the low side.

The amount of energy and cash flow generated by new wind farms in a year can be calculated as follows.

{Average New Capacity In Year}= ({Capacity at Year Start}+{Capacity at Year End})/2-14703

{Extra Electricity Generated In Year}= {Average New Capacity In Year}*365*24*{Capacity Factor}

{Cash Flow}={Extra Electricity Generated In Year} * {Strike Price}

The following figures are obtained.

• 2024 – 1460 MW – 5,755,320 MWh – £ 201,436,200
• 2025 – 3970 MW – 15,649,740 MWh – £ 547,740,900
• 2026 – 7306 MW – 28,800,252 MWh – £ 1,008,008,820
• 2027 – 11858 MW – 46,744,236 MWh – £ 1,636,048,260
• 2028 – 14,364 MW – 56,622,888 MWh – £ 1,981,801,080
• 2029 – 15,604 MW – 61,510,968 MWh – £ 2,152,883,880
• 3030 – 23,931.5 MW – 94,337,973 MWh – £ 3,301,829,055

Nate.

1. The first column is the cumulative amount of new capacity about the 14,703 MW in December 2023.
2. The second column is the extra electricity generated in the year over December 2023.
3. The third column is the extra cash flow in the year over December 2023.

As the installed base of wind farms increases, the cash flow increases.

It should also be noted that there are a large number of wind farms, already pencilled in for 2031-2035.

What Will We Do With All This Extra Electricity?

We need more industries that will consume a lot of electricity, like cement, chemicals and steel.

But I suspect that the easiest thing to do, is to convert the excess electricity to hydrogen and export it to the Continent and especially the Germans by pipeline or tanker.

Conclusion

Whoever wins this year’s General Election, should have a growing source of revenue for the life of the parliament and beyond.

June 4, 2024 - Posted by AnonW | Energy, Hydrogen | Floating Wind Power, General Election 2024, Germany, Offshore Wind Power, Wind Power