Zopa Returns – August 2009
I posted a graph and explanation of this a few weeks ago.
So have things changed?
Zopa Returns - August 2009
There are various lines shown on the graph.
- Red shows the A* lending rate
- Blue (Earn1) shows the returns discounting for any bad debt, but including accounts in arrears.
- Orange (Earn2) shows the returns discounting for any bad debt and arrears.
- Dark Blue at the bottom, is the OBR or Official Bank Rate
Notes.
- Earn2 is creeping back up towards Earn1. I think this is because after initial hiccups accounts tend to settle down. I also think that Zopa have tightened their lending conditions, which may mean they get less hiccups.
- Earn1 seems to have a sawtooth pattern. This is because, most contracts are from the 25th or one month to the 3rd of the next. At least the monthly peak rate seems to be rising.
- At present the Inland Revenue does not think that bad debts are allowable against tax. Many disagree and my accountant has said that he believes they will be allowed. After all do they want a big fight over £200?
I’m still happy.
Clouds on the Zopa Horizon?
I’ve now got over £30,000 invested in Zopa.
Nothing really untoward has been happening with my money and according to the latest figures, I’m earning a genuine five percent on my money. By a genuine five percent, I mean one that includes all the charges and bad debts. It also takes into account money that is in Zopa, but is not been lent out yet.
Of the 650 or so people I have lent to, only three are in trouble, with one a genuine bad debt and the other two limping along still making payments. That level is below the level forecast by the company and well below the levels experienced by the average finance company.
The graph below shows the rates at which money has been lent out on Zopa.
Zopa Rates to August 2009
Note that since mid-April rates have been rising, but over the last month or so, they have flattened off a bit and they may even have been falling slightly.
The graph below shows the amount of money requested.
Money Requested on Zopa - August 2009
Note how over the last six weeks, the amount of money requested by borrowers has dropped significantly.
Is this and the drop in interest rates linked to the banks being easier places to borrow money or does it reflect a typical lack of business because of the summer holidays? You could argue that the peak in June/July was caused by people borrowing money for holidays or new transport to take them there!
So there could be some fluffy cumulus on the Zopa horizon. We’ll see if business takes off in the autumn.
But a bigger thundery cloud has been seen courtesy of the Office of Fair Trading.
When I first got the letter saying that I must register because of Anti-Money Laundering Regulations, I thought it was a joke or at worst a try-on. Basically, reading the letter it just seems to be a catch-all to raise more money for this beleaguered government.
Why should I pay £115 a year, when my lending is controlled by Zopa and I only transfer money into them, by a straight transfer from my bank account? It is a yearly charge and would cut my rate from five to 4.7 percent.
If every lender on Zopa had to pay this tax, then it would not be the place for lesser mortals to get a decent rate on their money. But then Prudence and his ilk, have never liked private enterprise. Unless of course it benefits themselves!
It could be argued that Zopa is also a competitor to the various State Banks, that Prudence has saddled us with.
But despite all these clouds I will still be putting a percentage of my spare money into Zopa in the future.
Zopa’s 300,000th Member
In their July Newsletter, Zopa has said this.
In the last week, we also recruited our 300,000th member – meaning that we’re now officially bigger than Belfast!
That’s a lot of members. It would be interesting to know how many have actually lent or borrowed.
But that figure does illustrate how many people now know about the concept.
Gambling, Zopa and On-Line Bots
A strange thing is that since I’ve been using Zopa, I have cut down my gambling on things like horse racing.
I think that using Zopa is a bit like on-line gambling with a bit of the same buzz, as you check the results of what has happened every day about 10:30 at night. Or it certainly seems so to me. But perhaps I’m more an information man, than a true gambler.
Whilst we’re looking at gambling, there is an interesting site, which talks about on-line bots, that do automatic processing on gambling, foreign exchange and other sites.
Not for me!
Computers are great slaves, but bad masters.
BigZopa.com
I’m convinced that Zopa is working. I get a good return and judging by the number of people who apply for loans who have good credit ratings, it provides a service for discriminating people who need to borrow money. I tend to think that anybody can lend money to those with bad credit ratings.
At present Zopa has a borrowing limit of £15,000, but what if you created BigZopa.com and had a limit of £1,000,000. You would obviously need a lot more money to be paid in, but it would be an interesting place to put corporate money.
The economies of scale would mean that the system would cost about the same to run as the current system. But it would obviously cost a lot more for the due diligence.
But BigZopa.com will come.
Incidentally, BigZopa.com is available to register. Try Low Cost Names.
Zopa Demand Increases
I keep track of the amount of money that is requested on Zopa.
Over the last few months it has risen substantially, as on April 1, 2009 it was £3.5 million and now as I write on the 14th July it is hovering around the £10 million mark. In other words demand has increased three times in three and a half months.
Incidentally, interest rates have firmed up in that period and started rising towards the end of April.
I still only have the one bad debt and accounts in arrears are about the same they were in April.
This means that my return is still at present just over five percent. But that includes all the money tied up in Zopa and not just that lent out.
Zopa and Bad Debts
I’ve got one bad debt on Zopa and when calculating my returns I do not count it in any way at all. It might be recovered and more likely, I would be able to claim it against tax.
But HMRC are not being very helpful, as this post in the news on the Zopa site shows.
As those of you who follow our discussion forum will know, we are in conversations with the government about the tax treatment of lenders’ losses at Zopa. We had thought that lenders would be able to offset their losses from bad debt, as well as their Zopa fees, against their interest income from lending at Zopa. In that event the figure lenders would use in their tax return would be the ‘Total’ figure on the Zopa income statement.
However, HMRC advised us last year that they didn’t believe the losses could be offset, only the Zopa fees. That would mean that lenders should subtract the Zopa fees from the total of borrower and holding account interest and loan subsidy, but ignore the bad debt figure for the purpose of their 2008/09 tax returns.
We don’t believe this interpretation is remotely fair and have been lobbying the Government and Treasury accordingly. We are in continuing and constructive conversations with the Treasury and are hopeful that they will find a reasonable solution for the growing peer-to-peer lending industry in this country on the bases that 1) it will be fair in comparison with other lenders and 2) innovation in financial services is in everyone’s interest in these difficult times.
I’ve had various runs-in with HMRC in the past and tend to agree with the news. I should say that I’ve won most of these in the past.
We shall see!
Zopa as a Borrower
I have no experience of Zopa as a borrower, but it is worth stating how a loan is charged.
- There is an arrangement fee of £100.
- You are fully credit checked using the methods any responsible lender would.
- You can chose your repayment date to suit.
- You can cancel the loan at any time without any charges.
If you think this can help you, then take advice and try it.
But don’t blame me, if anything is not as I say here, or it all goes wrong.
Zopa as a Lender
I have been asked by several of my friends how I feel about Zopa, and how do you get started.
I should say that I would never tell anybody to use the site, before they have researched it in full. There are many excellent articles by respected financial journalists on the Internet. Some have told me that they have even invested themselves.
I only invest what I can afford to lose on Zopa. Most of my intial investment actually came from the sale of my late wife’s Porsche Boxster and the site has certainly performed better than that car would have. I used to love my two 911’s but a Boxster is like a fat pig compared to the gazelle of my Lotus Elan.
I started with small amounts of under a £1,000 and made sure I got the workings of the site under control, before I upped my levels to what they are now. You must do this, as you need to do the following.
- Check rates every morning, so that you are tracking the rates in the way you want.
- Check returned money every night, so that you make sure you are offering money for lending and it’s not sitting in your holding account.
- Make sure you understand the rules on how money is lent. For instance, note how lending offers inter-relate and that you can lend from two offers to the same person.
Did I make any mistakes?
Yes!
As I said in an earlier post, I set my limits too high at first and ended up with a bad debt of £200. I now have a maximum limit set at a thousandth of my total money, but that is probably a bit low. Somewhere between £50 and £80 would be a safe limit for most people. But this would be too high if you were only lending a total of say £2,000.
I am trying to get my average lending per lender down to under £50.
I would also make sure that you construct your lending offers, so that you can’t lend from two offers to the same person. I didn’t do this at first and I ended up lending far too much to some individuals. So now, I have one lending offer to A* and A rated borrowers and another for Youth. The two lending offers can’t lend money to the same borrower.
But as with anything to do with money, be careful. I would have used prudent, but Gordon Brown has long since proved that his definition of that word, is not the same as mine.
Zopa Returns
I am trying to be as honest as I can here. I don’t want to be optimistic and I know that with any investment can go up as well as down, but so far the returns are much better than I get with my account at the Nationwide.
One point to note, is that all of the returns shown in the graph, are based on real returns. For instance, if I have any money that is unlent, then it is included in the total and thus it reduces the returns.
Zopa Returns Since January 2007
There are various lines shown on the graph.
- Red shows the A* lending rate
- Blue (Earn1) shows the returns discounting for any bad debt, but including accounts in arrears.
- Orange (Earn2) shows the returns discounting for any bad debt and arrears.
- Dark Blue at the bottom, is the OBR or Official Bank Rate
Notes.
- You will notice that Earn1, shows a large dip around the end of May. This was because I had a large default of £200 on a loan. I have now cut substantially the level I lend out in any individual tranch. It used to £200, but now it is just £30. The whole idea is to push the average level of loan to around £40 to £50, so that each deafult costs less. Admittedly, you will have more loans so it will be a case of swings and roundabouts.
- The dip and recovery in Earn2 was caused by payment difficulties at the start of some loans. So they went quickly from being in arrears to being up to date. You might blame computers and finger trouble, but I couldn’t possibly comment.
I’m happy with the returns and feel that by managing the lending properly, I can keep the Earn1 rate above five percent in these difficult times.
The Anonymous Widower 