The Anonymous Widower

Will We Be Able To Open Up In The UK At The End Of April?

This page on Statista is entitled Population Of The United Kingdom In 2019, By Age Group.

Adding their numbers into groups gives.

  • Over 70 – 9 million
  • 50-69 – 16.2 million
  • 30-49 – 17.3 million
  • 20-29 – 8.7 million
  • Under 20 – 15.6 million

This adds up to a total of 66.8 million.

Consider.

  • Over the last three days, over half a million first doses of the vaccines have been given.
  • In the first thirteen days of February an average of 443,525 jabs per day were administered.
  • In the first thirteen days of February, half a million first doses was exceeded four times.
  • Around 80-90 per cent of the four most at risk groups have had their first dose.
  • There are at least 70 days to go before the end of April.

I feel it is not unreasonable to expect that we can vaccinate half a million first doses per day, so by the end of April we should administer another 35 million first doses.

If the rate is only 400,000 first doses per day, that is still 28 million first doses.

Conclusion

It looks to me, that everybody over the age of twenty could be offered a first dose of vaccine, with some to spare for those under twenty. in higher risk situations.

So will we be able to open up the UK at the end of April?

It is my view, that the computer could say Yes! It certainly doesn’t say No!

In memory of Dame Barbara and Sir Henry, we should Carry On Jabbing!

February 15, 2021 - Posted by | Health | ,

7 Comments »

  1. The other dimension here is this is seasonal virus so there will be natural moderation bought about increase in UV exposure and better environmental conditions to limit virus life when airborne.
    My take is most definitely but we need some good oversight feedback mechanisms to understand virus transmission and appropriate levers to stamp out any outbreaks. ie a control system but one that doesn’t oscillate too much!

    Comment by Nicholas Lewis | February 15, 2021 | Reply

  2. As a Control Engineer, I’d go for lots of little levers perhaps even on a much more local basis, but that would probably be politically difficult.

    But will we see pubs and restaurants perhaps applying No Jab No Service rules. It would certainly get a lot of free publicity.

    Comment by AnonW | February 15, 2021 | Reply

  3. Infection & death rates are dropping. Now they need to see if this is a result of the lockdown or the vaccine working.

    I can see a phased easing of the lockdown taking place from April onwards.

    Comment by MauriceGReed | February 15, 2021 | Reply

  4. Need to factor in that second doses needs to start en masse at end March/early April and at the very large rate seen so far.

    So a huge proportion of doses in April will NOT be available for first doses unless gthere is a big ramp up in supplies.

    Comment by TW | February 15, 2021 | Reply

    • At tonights presser they indicated they will achieve cohorts 1-9 by end of April plus those due a second dose

      Comment by Nicholas Lewis | February 15, 2021 | Reply

      • I heard that! Listening to the vaccines minister now! Could some communities be very hard nuts to crack?

        Comment by AnonW | February 15, 2021

      • Maybe but the modellers say we needed 75% take up for community wide effectiveness and there above 90% and over 95% in the 70-80 age group. Im unaware of anybody in my immediate and wider circle who aren’t champing at the bit to get in the queue.
        If it works as forecast we should be in good shape come late spring.

        Comment by Nicholas Lewis | February 15, 2021


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