The Anonymous Widower

A Statistical Provocateur

Not by words, but they are used in this thought-provoking article on the BBC web site.

It shows how the divorce rate mirrors margarine consumption, according to a web site called Spurious Correlations.

The trouble is that people tend to believe these relationships or not, as it suits them.

Perhaps the most famous statistical correlation is that smoking causes lunch cancer. But people still smoke! Or should that be idiots still smoke?

One correlation used by the Police, may have been found using my software called Daisy. Analysis by the Metropolitan Police showed that if they found a car, had no valid excise duty, insurance or MOT, then there was a fifty percent chance that if they stopped the car, they’d find evidence of a non-motoring offence. The logic behind this, is if you are say a burglar, drug-dealer or other crimnal, you are less likely to make sure that your car is legal.

May 26, 2014 Posted by | News | | Leave a comment

The Row Over Heathrow Expansion

There is a real row going on in the letters column of The Times over expansion at Heathrow.

Akbar al-Baker started it by saying people get used to aircraft noise. What does a Qatari national know about the rights of the individual citizen?

But I think it’s all an argument, where the usual British attitude of do nothing and it will be all right on the night, may be the right one.

Various factors will come into play over the next few years, that will also make Heathrow expansion less important.

I have read somewhere that Heathrow passengers are more likely to be travelling for leisure rather than business reasons.

Tourists on the other hand, are more likely to plan a trip on matters of convenience and cost.

So if you live somewhere like Derby, you probably have two or three airports that are easier to get to than Heathrow, so if say that holiday in Florida is cheaper via East Midlands, why would you go to Heathrow?

Even where I live close to Central London, I probably have a multi-airport choice to make on any flight.

If nothing as this choice of flights and airports increases, it will take the pressure off the need for an extra runway in the South East.

The only people, who probably need to fly into Heathrow are those, who have a connection to make, like a businessman going from say San Francisco to Minsk. These passengers will still fly through Heathrow, but increasingly as London gets to be an even more desirable tourist destination, will a transfer passenger decide to spend the night in London before continuing their journey?

It all goes to show how I would never rely on any statistics given out by Heathrow.

So many travellers are held to Heathrow by all sorts of factors, that clever marketing by alternative modes of travel can erode. Ryanair for instance is thinking about going to the United States.

al-Baker also called for Heathrow to become a twenty-four hour airport. He would wouldn’t he, as one of the big beneficiaries of this would be the gulf airlines, as then they could schedule flights to and from London on a virtually turn-up-and-go basis to and from their own twenty-four hour airports.

The man is obviously a man with no experience of UK politics, as no British politician, would ever sanction a twenty-four hour airport in the UK, except possibly on an island in the middle of the North Sea.

But then he’s paddling his own interests as a Director of Heathrow and the CEO of Qatar Airways.

But there are also a couple of rather large elephants in the room; the next generation of super-jumbos and new and upgraded railways.

Airbus A380’s fly into Manchester and I suspect over the next few years, they and the next generation aircraft will fly into several airports in the UK, like Birmingham, Cardiff, Stansted, Liverpool and Edinburgh to create high-capacity point-to-point services, putting more pressure on Heathrow as the long haul airport of choice.

It could be thought that Crossrail would benefit Heathrow, as it will give a quick, affordable and easy route to Central London and South Essex. But it will also enable long-haul travellers to transfer with ease to London’s next three largest airports; Gatwick, Luton and Stansted, so a convenient flight out of London after a long overnight flight, might not be at another terminal at Heathrow, but at another airport after a restful lunch at Farringdon or some other Central London location.

In future HS2 might have an effect on Heathrow, as when fully developed, Manchester Airport will be just over an hour from Central London.

A twenty four hour three-runway airport at Heathrow will only benefit the airlines and probably those in the Gulf more than most.

But if we don’t create it, nothing serious will happen, as people will find more convenient and affordable ways of getting from A to B.

May 26, 2014 Posted by | Transport/Travel | , , , | Leave a comment

BBC Breakfast’s Pointless Move To Manchester

It may be a day of a minor political tremor, but today is illustrating how pointless it was to move BBC Breakfast and probably many other programs to Manchester.

All of the major politicians are of course in Westminster, so Bill Turnbull is in London with Louise Minchin sitting almost by herself in the North, with a few lightweight guests. It is showing, it is a bad recipe for a good programme.

The sooner the BBC does the right thing and moves BBC Breakfast back to London the better.

May 26, 2014 Posted by | News | , , , | Leave a comment