The Anonymous Widower

Norway’s Answer To Wind Power Intermittency Lies Offshore – Study

The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.

This is the first paragraph.

SINTEF has revealed in its recent study that there is no statistical covariation or systematic correlation in time between the occurrence of offshore wind conditions in southern and northern Norway, and adds that this knowledge will increase the commercial value of Norwegian offshore wind energy.

It does seem lucky for the Norwegians, that their wind farms appear to be able to supply a more constant amount of electricity, than many of those against wind farms would have you believe.

I hope that a reputable UK agency or university, is doing a similar analysis for UK wind farms.

January 5, 2023 Posted by | Energy | , , , , | 1 Comment

It’s Hugo Lloris vs Jordan Pickford And There’s Only One Winner

The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Telegraph.

This is the introductory paragraph.

By most measures, Jordan Pickford has been the better keeper than Hugo Lloris this season — especially when it comes to penalties

The Telegraph uses statistics from a specialist goalkeeping statistics site, which is called Goalkeeper-XG.

So I would tend to put a high level of trust in their deductions.

I found the Telegraph article, when I was looking for any article about the two team captains, Harry Kane and Hugo Lloris, who both play for Tottenham Hotspur, where Lloris is captain.

I also suspect that in training.

  • Harry Kane has probably scored more penalties than any other player has against Hugo Lloris.
  • Hugo Lloris has probably saved more penalties than any other keeper from Harry Kane.

The two players probably know each other’s strengths and weaknesses well and in addition.

  • Eric Dier of Tottenham has played many games in front of Lloris, is also in the England team.
  • I suspect several of the England team have taken penalties or been in one-on-one situations with the French goalkeeper in Premier League games.
  • Some England players may feel they have scores to settle, after Lloris denied them of a goal, because of a superb save.

All of this information, will be powerful in the hands and minds of England’s coaches and psychologists.

On the other hand, with the notable exception of Olivier Giroud, I suspect that only a handful of the French players have faced Jordan Pickford in a goal-scoring opportunity.

I feel that the battle of the goalkeepers will be key tonight.

December 10, 2022 Posted by | Sport | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Blood Clot Risk Eight Times Higher From Covid Than AstraZeneca Vaccine, Study Finds

The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Telegraph.

This is the first two paragraphs.

The risk of a rare brain clot from coronavirus is approximately eight times greater the risk presented by the AstraZeneca jab, a University of Oxford study has found.

The research, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, and compared blood clot rates among 500,000 coronavirus patients with data from the roll-out of 34 million vaccine doses across Europe.

I will certainly be having my second AstraZeneca jab next Monday.

This press release on the Astra-Zeneca web site is entitled Oxford Phase III trials interim analysis results published in The Lancet.

This is an extract.

In addition to the Oxford led programme, AstraZeneca is conducting a large study in the US and globally. In total, Oxford University and AstraZeneca expect to enrol more than 60,000 participants globally.

The Telegraph article also says this.

The incidence of rates for cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) – a rare blood clot on the brain – is 39 per million coronavirus patients, while it is five per million recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Note that five per million is 0.3 per 60,000.

Any participant, who got a blood clot in the AstraZeneca Phase III trial would have been a very unlucky person.

Those who say, that the AstraZeneca vaccine was rushed and that many more people should participated in the trials may have a point.

But countering that is my belief that data analysis has improved so much in the last twenty years that all the data on all the vaccines has been so thoroughly analysed by some of the best data analysts and analytic software, that most more common problems have been identified.

 

 

April 15, 2021 Posted by | Health | , , , , | 8 Comments

A Thought On Covid-19

I am a Control Engineer, Mathematical Modeller and Statistician and have been following the data since the pandemic started.

Consider.

  • Systems like the pandemic want to get to an equilibrium. And preferably one where they are in control. The virus tries to infect more people, so they can pass it on.
  • But anybody, who is immune to the virus acts as a moderator does in a nuclear reactor, to slow the reaction down. So the more, who are immune in the population the better.
  • As of today, 2,713,563 have tested positive for the virus and sadly 75,431 have died. That means at least 2.6 million have had the virus and survived. Are these people now immune to the virus? If they are, can they be added to those who are vaccinated?
  • Also, how many people have had the virus and were not tested, but treated it like they might a cold? Are these safe from the virus, a second time around?
  • What about children, who seem to have lower susceptibility to the virus?
  • We can add in by the end of this week over a million, who have received the vaccine.
  • We are at the present time having about 350,000 positive tests in a week. If these people with positive tests isolate as they should, that will be breaking the transmission of a lot of carriers.
  • And then if the vaccine makers deliver two million a week and they are all used, that takes a lot of people out of the mix.
  • How many people are shielding or working from home and never giving the virus a chance to infect them? It must be a couple of million.

These are all big numbers, but most of them are on our side and not that of the virus.

I watched BBC News at six and Emma Vardy said that in Northern Ireland, the vaccine might be having a positive effect. I wouldn’t have expected that this early!

I am more optimistic, than I was before I started to write this post.

Could the combination of lockdown and increasing numbers of vaccinations cut the rate of transmission of the virus?

January 4, 2021 Posted by | Health | , , | 6 Comments

The Government’s Terrible COVID-19 Statistics

In an article in The Times today, Sir David Speigelhalter lambasts the Government over their collection of COVID-19 statistics.

I have been involved in the analysis of several very large databases and four factors improve the quality of the answers you get.

  1. The more records or in this case tests you have, the better. So I back David Speigelhalter! We should stop people on the street and test them!
  2. The more fields or pieces of data in each test you have, the better. So perhaps each test should be linked to your NHS record.
  3. The quality of the data is important. In my experience NHS scores about two out of five for quality as a lot of medical staff, often fill it in badly. In one case, I was looking for reasons for low birth weight babies and in many cases, the field was filled with 9.99 Kg.
  4. And then there’s the output of the data. I was taught how to display data for idiots, by the former Chief Accountant of a FTSE 500  company, who was working as the Chief Management Accountant of a Clearing Bank. He had found showing scatter diagrams with each branch as a single point on a large sheet, really got Branch Managers to think about what they are doing, if they weren’t running with the herd. These diagrams made problem branches stand out like the sorest of thumbs!

So where are the scatter diagrams for all of the Health Authorities in the UK, so everybody can see how their area, is doing against everybody else?

By the way, I trust Sir David, as we have the same birthday and share it with James Cameron, Jeff Thomson, Katherine Hamnett, Lawrence of Arabia, Menachem Begin and Madonna.

May 11, 2020 Posted by | Health | , , | Leave a comment

What Percentage Of Over 65s In England Have Tested Positive For COVID-19?

On the official government web site, they now give a breakdown of lab-confirmed cases in England by age and sex.

This is their graph.

Note.

  1. From 0-60, there ae more female cases.
  2. From 60-85, there are more male cases.
  3. Over 85, there are more female cases.

I do find this unusual. Could it be that more healthcare, teachers, nursery and care home workers are women under sixty.

I’ll now look at the individual figures.

Male

  • 0-4 – 356
  • 5-9 – 157
  • 10-14 – 167
  • 15-19 – 310
  • 20-24 – 938
  • 25-29 – 2256
  • 30-34 – 2549
  • 35-39 – 2493
  • 40-44 – 2986
  • 45-49 – 3782
  • 50-54 – 4457
  • 55-59 – 4725
  • 60-64 – 4473
  • 65-69 – 4121
  • 70-74 – 5064
  • 75-79 – 5816
  • 80-84 – 6598
  • 85-89 – 5703
  • 90+ – 3929

Under-65 – 29649

Over-65 – 31231

Over-75 – 22046

Female

  • 0-4 – 274
  • 5-9 – 129
  • 10-14 – 178
  • 15-19 – 501
  • 20-24 – 2303
  • 25-29 – 4756
  • 30-34 – 4546
  • 35-39 – 3842
  • 40-44 – 4160
  • 45-49 – 5038
  • 50-54 – 5538
  • 55-59 – 5018
  • 60-64 – 3729
  • 65-69 – 2684
  • 70-74 – 3359
  • 75-79 – 4266
  • 80-84 – 5792
  • 85-89 – 6387
  • 90+ – 6622

Under-65 – 40012

Over-65 – 29110

Over-75 – 23067

Total Under-65 – 69661

Total Over-65  – 60341

Total Over-75 – 45113

 

Note.

  1. In an earlier analysis,  I thought these were UK figures, so discount those.
  2. There are no figures for other parts of the UK.

I can now calculate the percentage of Over-65s, who have had lab-confirmed cases in England.

  • According to Age UK, there are 11,989,322 who are over 65 in the UK.
  • As England is 84.3 % of the UK population according to Wikipedia, that means there are 10,106,998, who are over 65 in England.

Using the total number of over 65 cases in England, this gives a figure of 0.6%.

I can now calculate the percentage of Over-75s, who have had lab-confirmed cases in England.

According to Age UK, there are 5,400,000, who are over 75 in the UK.

As England is 84.3 % of the UK population according to Wikipedia, that means there are 4,552,200, who are over 75 in England.

Using the total number of over 75 cases in England, this gives a figure of 0.99%.

I can now calculate the percentage of Under-65s, who have had lab-confirmed cases in England.

  • Using the previous figures, there are 45,870,180, who are under 65 in England.

Using the total number of under-65 cases in England, this gives a figure of 0.15%.

 

 

May 7, 2020 Posted by | Health | , | 3 Comments

Five Eastern Counties

The five Eastern counties around London have the following numbers of people, who have tested positive for COVID-19.

  • Cambridgeshire – 673 of 852,523 or 0.08%
  • Essex – 2320 of 1,832,752 or 0.13%
  • Kent – 3232 of 1,568.623 or 0.20%
  • Norfolk – 1355 of 903,680 or 0.15%
  • Suffolk – 936 of 768,556 or 0.12%

Note that the second figure is the population and the third is the percentage found positive.

Compare these figures with some other places, including Hackney where I live now.

Blackpool – 377 of 139,720 or 0.27%

Cumbria – 1734 of 498,888 or 0.35%

Hackney – 596 of 279,665 or 0.21%

You can make some interesting deductions.

April 28, 2020 Posted by | Health | , | 2 Comments

What Percentage Of People In The UK Survive COVID-19?

This is only a simple analysis based on the COVID-19 statistics published on Sunday, 26th April.

  • So far 152,840 people have been lab confirmed as having COVID-19.
  • There has also been 20,732 deaths in hospitals.
  • Suppose another 25% have died in care homes or in their own bed.
  • That would give a total of 25,915 deaths.
  • So rather crudely, if you get tested positive for COVID-19, you have a 17% chance of dying. What is the chance of dying from a serious stroke or breast cancer?
  • On the other hand 126,925 or 83% have survived.
  • Some, let’s say 20,000 are in ICU beds in hospitals, reducing the figures to 106,925 or 70% that survived.

We should be examining these seventy percent to see why they survived.

The official statistics concentrate on the negative side, but don’t publish figures like how many left hospital for convalescence at home or in an ordinary hospital ward!

Update – 27th April 2020

The actual figure of those in ICU beds yesterday was 18,667, which makes the figures 108, 258 and 71% have survived.

April 26, 2020 Posted by | Health | , , , | 4 Comments

Our Social Distancing Is Working, Says Sir Patrick Vallance

This is a headline on the front of today’s Times.

Sir Patrick is the government’s chief scientific adviser and I doubt he would use words like that lightly.

He noted these points.

  • Hospital admissions are increasing by a stable amount each day.
  • The NHS is coping as numbers have stopped accelerating.
  • He felt that reductions in travel were working.
  • Public transport usage has severely reduced.

He indicated that more of the same was needed.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see that by the end of this week, we’ll be able to make much better predictions on the progress of the COVID-19 virus through the UK population.

Here in the UK, we could be approaching the End of the Beginning!

 

 

March 31, 2020 Posted by | Health | , , | Leave a comment

Lockdown ‘Is On Course To Reduce Total Death Rate’

The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Times.

This is the introductory paragraph.

Britain is on course for an estimated 5,700 deaths from coronavirus, far lower than originally predicted, experts believe.

It’s all contained in a paper by Tom Pike at Imperial College,

Apparently, it is based on the premise that the UK follows the lockdown and social distancing.

Here’s hoping!

The story is also in the Mail and the Express.

March 28, 2020 Posted by | Health | , , | Leave a comment