While Cameron Dithers About London, Manchester Decides!
I picked up two reports on airports this week.
This report on the BBC is entitled Heathrow airport delay gutless, says business group and talks about a lot of the fallout from David Cameron’s decision not to decide on a new runway for the South-East.
In contrast, you have this report in the Manchester Evening News entitled New images shows possible high-tech future of Manchester Airport’s check-in after ‘Super Terminal’ transformation, which describes the airports expansion plans.
Expanding Heathrow seems to generate controversy in super-tanker loads, whereas Manchester doesn’t sem to attract anything like the same level, even when you take the different sizes into account.
Look at this Google Map of Heathrow.
Heathrow Airport
Compare it with this one of Manchester Airport.
Manchester Airport
I don’t know for sure, but it would appear from these maps and larger ones, that Heathrow has used up much more of the available space around the runways, whereas Manchester hasn’t!
When Heathrow wanted to build Terminal 5, they had to move a sewage works, and another terminal would be difficult on the same site. Manchester has some space left.
So any expansion at Heathrow needs to expand the airport site, which is where a lot of the opposition comes from.
In my view the only way to expand Heathrow is to make better use of the current runways and the terminals. But that can only go on for so long!
And would the locals object to more landings and take-offs? You bet they would!
David Cameron is no fool and he knows that with the opposition of Boris Johnson and nearly all the candidates for the London Mayor against Heathrow, that it will never gain a third runway.
I hate to look backwards but the Roskill Commission of the 1960s and their eventual decision by a roundabout route was for an airport on Maplin Sands to the East of Southend.
But Harold Wilson’s government cancelled this airport, just as they did the Picc-Vic Tunnel in Manchester and improvement of the rail lines across the Pennines.
In my view as air traffic increases, Heathrow needs to expand to just survive, as there is competition all around.
- Schipol, Paris Charles de Gaulle and even Manchester competing for the interchange traffic.
- Trains to the Continent
- Birmingham, Gatwick, Luton, Southend, Stansted and others nibbling Heathrow’s markets.
- HS2
- Passengers are increasingly savvy and go from any convenient airport, using an acceptable airline at the right time and price.
- Internet technology will guide people to the best and cheapest way to travel from say Cambridge to Boston. An expensive Heathrow could be its own worst enemy.
- Other airports will offer better car-friendly solutions.
So as it can’t expand, due to the politicians and local residents, Heathrow must accept that it can’t and it must prepare itself for downgrade to just an airport for London and those living locally.
It also means, the South East must eventually find another site for a new airport to replace Heathrow.
The only place is the Thames Estuary!
So why didn’t the Davies Airport Commission recommend the Boris Island?
Howard Davies is a man of the City Establishment, who are very conservative with a small c and love the convenience, which Crossrail will make better, of Heathrow. How many submissions were against the Boris Island because it would mean too much change in their business?
But a properly designed Thames Hub Airport, could also incorporate the new Thames Barrier and Lower Thames Crossing that London needs.
To many of London’s residents and a lot of their politicians, it is a no-brainer! But for the City, only an expanded Heathrow will do!
So how will Manchester Airport affect London’s Airport mess in the future.
I believe that Manchester Airport will start to dominate air transport in the North of England and Scotland, just as Heathrow used to dominate the South.
- It has space for new terminals and aircraft and car parking.
- A rail network is developing to bring passengers to the airport from all over the North and Scotland.
- HS2 and probably HS3 are coming to the Airport.
- When it needs to expand it decides to and does!
It could also be combined with Liverpool Airport using a very high speed train, if it needed more runway capacity. It’s just forty-four kilometres as a Maglev would fly at 200 kilometres per hour, up the Mersey. Manchester and Liverpool airports could work together, much better than Heathrow can work with either Gatwick, Luton or Stansted.
So will an expanded Manchester Airport take a big bite out of Heathrow’s traffic? You bet it will. Especially, if Heathrow continues to not expand.
I think we should start to plan a Thames Estuary Airport now, even if we don’t built it for twenty years.. If we don’t, then when we need to start building, we’ll take another fifty years to make a decision.
Or we could always do what we’re doing now and let market forces, various interests and passenger choice decide our airports policy?
And as ever, engineers and architects, will improve aircraft and airports, so that we find them acceptable.
The airports problem won’t be solved until perhaps in about 2060, when the Dutch get fed up with Schipol and we join with them and the Belgians to create an airport perhaps slightly east of the Thames Estuary connected to various countries by high speed rail lines. It could be called Canute International!
The only certainty, is that I won’t be here to see it built!
Towards A Thames Valley Metro!
After my visit yesterday to Twyford Station and the Henley Branch and today to The Marlow Branch, I think something bigger could be emerging.
On the Great Western Main Line, between Paddington and Didcot, there are several branch lines and other more major routes that run local services into Reading and/or Paddington.
Taken in order from Paddington, they are.
- Acton to Northolt Line – 11 miles – Rather a leftover line that gets used for all sorts of traffic, including freight, diversions and driver training.
- Greenford Branch from West Ealing – 2.7 miles – Another leftover line, that is being rerouted to a bay platform at West Ealing – Could be transferred to the London Overground.
- Brentford Branch Line – 4 miles – Freight only
- Staines and West Drayton Line – 5.5 miles – Freight only.
- Windsor and Eton Branch from Slough – 2.5 miles
- Marlow Branch from Maidenhead – 7.15 miles – I wrote about it in The Marlow Branch.
- Henley Branch from Twyford – 4.5 miles – I wrote about it in Twyford Station and the Henley Branch
- Waterloo to Reading Line – Electrified, but links to the North Downs Line for Gatwick Airport, which isn’t!
- Reading to Basingstoke Line – To be electrified, with possibly some extra stations.
- Cherwell Valley Line from Didcot Parkway – To be electrified.
What follows are my observations.
Class 387 IPEMU Trains
Great Western Railway is to receive twenty-nine Class 387 trains from Thameslink and eight new ones from the factory.
These could easily be upgraded to IPEMU variants by the addition of batteries.
Once the power is switched on as far as Didcot Parkway station, I suspect that all these mainly short branches could be run using IPEMU trains, if passenger services were required or required to be run by electric trains.
Some like Greenford, Windsor and Eton, Marlow and Henley, would be as now, one train per branch. But elderly two car diesels would be replaced by new four car electric trains with a superior performance.
In Rumours of Battery Powered Trains, I reported on an article in Modern Railways magazine, which speculated that the extra Class 387 trains were to be IPEMUs and that they could be used on routes like Bedwyn and Oxford.
So it’s not my speculation!
Electrification Of The Branches
Some of the branches like Marlow Branch with its unusual layout and the Bourne End bridge and Windsor and Eton Branch with the historic nature of where it goes, will not be straightforward, as I suspect the heritage lobby will have a field day. As I wrote in Why We Should Use Independently Powered Electric Trains, the opposition to electrification in sensitive areas is stirring.
Electrification of the Greenford Branch might be more straightforward, but with five stations and a terminus in a bay platform at Greenford, I would suspect that a dedicated Class 387 IPEMU would cost less and only require the bay platform at West Ealing station to be electrified.
North Downs Line
In some ways, the North Downs Line is the most interesting, as I think that a dual-voltage IPEMU could easily supply a high quality service between Reading and Gatwick.
At present the direct service is hourly and takes around eighty minutes, using a two car Class 156 train.
Reading to Gatwick by Crossrail and Thameslink could on current figures and predictions for Crossrail times, take a few minutes over a hundred.
So the current direct route is quicker now with Class 165 diesel trains!
What difference would a faster four-car electric train make?
Crossrail’s Effect On The Great Western Main Line
The biggest effect will be when Crossrail arrives at all stations on the Great Western Main Line from Paddington to Reading.
Stations like Slough, Maidenhead and Twyford, where branches connect, will see a positive effect, as I suspect that more connections to and from the branches will be easier and involve less waiting.
Improving Services On The Branches
I think we could see some reorganisation of the services on the branch lines to give increased frequencies?
I think if Great Western Railway take the IPEMU route instead of electrifying the branches, there is scope for providing improved services from Slough to Reading and on the branches in the area. Diagrams could be arranged that after trundling down a few branches, the IPEMU did a section on the electrified lines to charge the batteries.
On thing I noticed on my trip to Marlow, was that Network Rail seem to be installing a lot of bay platforms at Crossrail stations. Some are London-facing for flexibility in the Crossrail schedules, but some are facing the other way. Could Network Rail be thinking out of the box and making sure, they don’t compromise any possible future services?
Reading As An Important Hub
As the routes develop, it would almost be like a Thames Valley Metro centred on the extremely well-connected Reading.
- Great Western Railway to Wales, the West Country and London
- Crossrail to London and beyond.
- Cross-Country Trains to the South, Midlands and North
- In a few years time the East West Rail Link could join Reading to Oxford, Milton Keynes, Bedford and the East.
The Class 387 IPEMU trains could serve the following stations from Reading, with very little extra electrification and perhaps the odd curve or two.
- Basingstoke
- Bedwyn
- Gatwick Airport
- Heathrow Airport
- Henley-on-Thames
- London Paddington
- Marlow
- Newbury
- Oxford
- Windsor and Eton Central
- Wokingham
If the Marlow Branch were to be extended, the trains could even reach High Wycombe.
Reading is going to have a very interesting time!
The Anonymous Widower 