The Anonymous Widower

Will There Be An Eight-Month Closure On The Gospel Oak To Barking Line?

This has been stated in several articles on the Internet, but I’ll use this article from London 24 entitled Barking to Gospel Oak Overground line “to close for EIGHT months this year”. This is said.

A closure is necessary so the diesel stock can be replaced with electric trains and to increase capacity on the hugely-overcrowded route.

A £60m contract was awarded to J. Murphy and Sons to electrify the line in September last year but there has been no announcement from the Department of Transport, Network Rail or TfL.

London24 understands negotiations have been ongoing between the organisations over the length and nature of the closure while electrification takes place.

Shutting it will cause mayhem for thousands of passengers who will have to find alternative routes, which will often take longer and be more expensive.

I have also heard from a reliable source that there will be an eight month closure and the Gospel Oak to Barking Line (GOBlin) will open with new trains.

I feel that Murphys are electrifying the line in a novel way and I wrote about it in Are We Seeing A New Approach To Electrification On The Gospel Oak To Barking Line?

I have no specific or private information, but only what I have read in the media or seen with my own eyes.

I will of course be using my own experience of many years of supporting and observing large projects.

What Would Be An Acceptable Closure?

In Summer 2015. the Victoria Line was closed for two months, to replace a cross-over at Walthamstow Central. This was just about acceptable to the locals, but the alternative routes and Rail Replacement Buses coped.

At the right time of the year, I suspect that the residents of North London could endure a closure of perhaps 3-4 months. But of course, they’d prefer it, if there wasn’t any closures, except for odd days at weekends.

At least there are alternative routes.

• The upgraded Victoria Line can help between Walthamstow and Upper Holloway, with assistance from buses.
• After the 17th April, there would appear to be no North London Line closures.
• The Victoria Line to Highbury and Islington can partly replace going to Gospel Oak for the North London Line.
• There are a couple of out of station interchanges.

Freight trains can be routed via the North London Line.

How Much Work Can Be Done?

The key to doing anything, is the number of hours that work can be done and the amount of resources that can be used.

This is the current list of closures on the GOBlin.

• Sun 31 Jan 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sun 07 Feb 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking until 12:00
• Sun 14 Feb 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking until 12:00
• Sun 21 Feb 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking until 12:00
• Sun 28 Feb 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking until 12:00
• Sun 06 Mar 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking until 12:00
• Sun 20 Mar 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking until 12:00
• Sun 27 Mar 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking until 12:00
• Sun 03 Apr 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking until 12:00
• Sun 10 Apr 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 16 to Sun 17 Apr 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 23 to Sun 24 Apr 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 30 Apr to Mon  02 May 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 07 to Sun 08 May 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 14 to Sun 15 May 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 21 to Sun 22 May 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 28 to Tue 31 May 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 04 to Sun 05 Jun 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 11 to Sun 12 Jun 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 18 to Sun 19 Jun 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 25 to Sun 26 Jun 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 02 to Sun 03 Jul 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 09 to Sun 10 Jul 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 16 to Sun 17 Jul 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking
• Sat 23 to Sun 24 Jul 16 – Gospel Oak to Barking

No long closure seems to have been announced yet!

Note the following.

• There doesn’t appear to be any working day closures, so it would appear that Transport for London/Network Rail are looking after the passengers! And the revenue!
• I should also say, that an engineer working on an unrelated station project in London, said that it was typical to work on a twenty-four hour basis. Thus a weekend closure could give over fifty continuous hours for working.
• There are two longer closures in May at the Bank Holidays, so what is planned for these weekends?
• None of the work is in tunnels!
• The line could be blockaded at night to allow work to continue all through the night.
• Important freight could use the North London Line.
• The line connects a string of roads together, where there are various facilities like cafes and shops. I bet if someone is peckish at two in the morning, they can get a sandwich.
• I would suspect, that they will apply some of the lessons learned at Dawlish.
• J Murphy and Sons have a reputation for using lots of sub-contractors.
• A lot of the work is taking place close to Murphy’s depot!
• They can get the lights out and use the summer months to great advantage.
• Days can be used to get everything ready for the following night’s work.
• The extension of the line to Barking Riverside can be done later after the GOBlin has reopened.

I think that someone is doing a universe-class project management job and has realised that by clever working practices and selected weekend and overnight closures, there could be masses of time and resources available for the job.

Could this explain, that when the eight month closure is discussed, Mike Stubbs from London Overground is always quoted as saying no final decision has been made?

Perhaps every day, project managers are telling him a smaller and less disruptive figure.

Have the freight companies been told, that the line will be closed to them for eight months, so they can plan accordingly? It would be very sensible and I suspect they have already made alternative arrangements.

I think that Murphy’s orange army will get an amazing amount of actual work done before the end of 2016.

If the electrification gets delivered on time and budget, a great number of men and women, will be telling their grandchildren exaggerated tales about how they rebuilt London’s railways!

Trains

One problem is the Class 710 trains, as they can’t be delivered until 2018, so I suspect that opening after the eight month closure with new trains, should be opening with four-car electric trains.

In a section in my related post entitled Where Are The Trains?, I said this.

I believe that the Class 387 trains, are the only acceptable and available trains, that will be available to open the service after an eight-month blockade.

Nothing else except some old trains from British Rail’s dustbin are available.

The Class 387 trains will be available as Bombardier have sorted the production. I wrote about this in Class 387 Trains On Track

Political Considerations

In May we have the London Mayoral Election and if there is an eight-month blockade of the GOBlin, I don’t think it would be to Zac Goldsmith’s advantage.

But supposing by mid-April a plan has been published and evidence of masts and wires is creeping along between Gospel Oak and Barking!

So why has the eight months closure been so widely publicised?

I’m no spin-doctor, but wouldn’t it be better to give people low expectations and then say that there’ll be new electric trains at the end of the year.

A couple of months ago, Modern Railways published an editorial saying Network Rail needed a win to restore their image in the eyes of the general public.

Could this be their strategy to go for a win?

If it fails, it will be an own goal of horrendous proportions.

Conclusions

I am led to the following conclusions.

• Between now and December 2016, there is a very large number of man-hours available to electrify the GOBlin.
• The line can be blockaded every night and work could continue under lights
• Eight four-car Class 387 trains could be borrowed to start the electric service.
• Zac Goldsmith, Boris Johnson, Network Rail and Peter Hendy, and J. Murphy and Sons have a lot to gain if this line is electrified on time and on budget.

I have a feeling that if we don’t get biblical rain, plague and pestilence, London is in for a surprise.

January 28, 2016 - Posted by AnonW | Transport/Travel | Gospel Oak And Barking Line, London Mayor, Project Management, Trains