The Anonymous Widower

Is HS2 At Risk Of Derailing?

There is an article in The Telegraph entitled HS2 at risk of derailing at top speeds, report finds.

I have read the article and the report by Professor Woodward at Heriot-Watt University is obviously, based on sound mathematics and enginering principles.

We have a problem with HS2, which is not unlike the problem with the new Hinckley Point nuclear power station.

There is a big need for extra capacity, but it will cost an awful lot of money.

In both projects too, there is a lot of opposition.

Professor Woodward’s research has one serious consequence, even if the high design speed of the line doesn’t make the trains derail.

It is that if you reduce the speed of the line, the economic case for HS2 is shot to pieces.

If you decide that there could be a safety problem with the embankments, you have to strengthen them and that ruins the economic case too.

If we look at Hinckley Point C nuclear power station, not building it, is not as serious as not building HS2.

We have several other ways to generate power and also lots of ways to save it. Also, the widely quoted strike price of £92.50/MWh would make a lot of other much cheaper schemes like tidal power viable.

But this doesn’t solve the problem of creating more capacity on the rail lines between north and south for both passengers and freight.

HS2 doesn’t carry freight, but hopefully, it will free up paths on traditional routes to the north, that could be used by freight trains.

If you think we don’t, travel between Euston and Glasgow on Virgin Trains and look at the passenger loading.

At present, Network Rail are carrying out various schemes to squeeze more capacity out of the current lines and it is hoped that in the short term, this will help.

But in some ways all it will do is create more demand for travel on the routes.

So at some time we’re going to have to build a new line, which will allow faster speeds than the current lines.

If you look at Phase 1 to the West Midlands, this will have the following effects.

• Extra capacity between London and the West Midlands.
• Journey times of around fifty minutes.
• Making Birmingham Airport, a viable one for those living in North London.
• Paths released for freight on the West Coast Main Line.
• Reorganisation of traditional services on the West Coast Main Line to serve more places.

In Phase 1, there would probably be no more than half-a-dozen trains in both directions on the southern section of HS2, south of Birmingham International station.

On the other hand, when Phase 2 to Manchester and Leeds opens there will be upwards of twenty trains per hour both wayson the same southern section.

I can understand, why those in the Chilterns are getting angry.

So to the protesters, Professor Woodward’s research could be manna from heaven.

For some time, my view has been that we need new tracks between London and the North via Birmingham, as even if all existing lines were upgraded, there wouldn’t be enough capacity.

I think we’re going to need some radical thinking.

For instance, suppose you made Birmingham International a hub, where the lines from the North met a line to London and one into Birmingham city centre.

This might help in the design of HS2 to the north of Birmingham, but that is not the area, where there is major opposition to the line. That is between Birmingham International and London, where land is limited and wherever you build it, you’ll annoy someone.

I suspect, a lot of people working on the project, sometimes feel like going and working elsewhere.

But whatever we do with HS2, we must improve the traditional routes.

• Electrify the Midland Main Line to Derby. Nottingham and Sheffield,
• Electrify the Chiltern Main Line to Birmingham.
• Electrify the routes across the Pennines from Preston and Liverpool to Hull, Leeds and Newcastle via Manchester.
• Sort out the Digswell Visduct on the East Coast Main Line.
• Improve speeds to as high as possible on all routes to the North.

The only trouble, is that the more we improve traditional routes, the more people will travel by train and the need for HS2 will become more urgent.

March 13, 2016 - Posted by AnonW | Transport/Travel, World | High Speed Two, Nuclear Power, Trains