The Anonymous Widower

All Along The South Coast

Taking the figures from this page on the BBC for the total number of COVID-19 cases and population for Health Authorities along the South Coast, we get the following.

  • Plymouth – 11 – 263,100 – 23,900
  • Devon – 43 – 795,286 – 18,500
  • Dorset – 11 – 376,484 – 34,200
  • Bournemouth – 12 – 395,784 – 33,100
  • Southampton – 11 – 252,796 – 23,000
  • Hampshire – 156 -1,376,316 – 8,800
  • Portsmouth – 25 – 215,133 – 8,600
  • West Sussex – 27 – 858,852 – 31,800
  • Brighton and Hove – 17 – 290,395 – 17,100
  • East Sussex – 9 – 554,590 – 7,400
  • Kent – 48 -1,568,623 – 32,700

Note the last figure is the number of residents per confirmed case. I would have thought that as the areas are similar, the last figure would be fairly constant.

The mean of the last figure is 21,700, with a standard deviation of 9,900.

It is my view that the standard deviation is too high, if all the areas were using the same health policies.

So I think testing methods are a bit variable!

Hopefully, the figures will settle down or those clever guys at Imperial will make sense of it all, in the next few days.


March 23, 2020 - Posted by | Health | ,


  1. There are differences amongst the areas of Greater Manchester; some areas have very many more than others. I suspect it is that people in some areas have a large number oc local relatives who they see a great deal. People in other areas have family who live a distance away, and possibly far fewer family members.

    Comment by nosnikrapzil | March 23, 2020 | Reply

  2. I think the differences probably comes from the proportion of people with symptoms that report it. I know of someone who is recovering from it, but living in the country with the family self-isolating, there is no way that she will be recorded in any statistics. I know of others who believe they may have had it, but the symptoms only lasted a few days, so also not reported. The use of number of cases and proportion of these dying are unreliable statistics. The number dying and the proportion of population, are the only reliable stats.

    Comment by John | March 23, 2020 | Reply

  3. The numbers dying may be unreliable. We are told the numbers dying who are infected by coronavirus but not whether, for the individual, that was the cause of death. The authorities are always careful to say the patient died with coronavirus not from coronavirus.

    Comment by JohnC | March 23, 2020 | Reply

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