The Anonymous Widower

A Thought On Covid-19

I am a Control Engineer, Mathematical Modeller and Statistician and have been following the data since the pandemic started.

Consider.

  • Systems like the pandemic want to get to an equilibrium. And preferably one where they are in control. The virus tries to infect more people, so they can pass it on.
  • But anybody, who is immune to the virus acts as a moderator does in a nuclear reactor, to slow the reaction down. So the more, who are immune in the population the better.
  • As of today, 2,713,563 have tested positive for the virus and sadly 75,431 have died. That means at least 2.6 million have had the virus and survived. Are these people now immune to the virus? If they are, can they be added to those who are vaccinated?
  • Also, how many people have had the virus and were not tested, but treated it like they might a cold? Are these safe from the virus, a second time around?
  • What about children, who seem to have lower susceptibility to the virus?
  • We can add in by the end of this week over a million, who have received the vaccine.
  • We are at the present time having about 350,000 positive tests in a week. If these people with positive tests isolate as they should, that will be breaking the transmission of a lot of carriers.
  • And then if the vaccine makers deliver two million a week and they are all used, that takes a lot of people out of the mix.
  • How many people are shielding or working from home and never giving the virus a chance to infect them? It must be a couple of million.

These are all big numbers, but most of them are on our side and not that of the virus.

I watched BBC News at six and Emma Vardy said that in Northern Ireland, the vaccine might be having a positive effect. I wouldn’t have expected that this early!

I am more optimistic, than I was before I started to write this post.

Could the combination of lockdown and increasing numbers of vaccinations cut the rate of transmission of the virus?

January 4, 2021 - Posted by | Uncategorized | , ,

6 Comments »

  1. Much effort has been put into getting people to have a test to see if they have the virus.

    Perhaps it would be more useful to carry out tests to see if people have already had the virus and even have antibodies or T Cells which may give them a level of protection and this number could then be published. It might also be possible to move some of these people down the priority list for vaccination?

    I heard on local BBC Essex that one hospital still plans to give the second vaccination to those who have already had their first and been given a date for their second. Given most of these people are over 80 and thus at greater risk of dying perhaps second vaccination for all over 80s should go ahead as originally planned?

    As for getting enough people to carry out vaccination I read of a dentist who applied to volunteer and was sent a massive document of around 15 pages to complete!

    Surely people like Dentists and their assistants and even veterinary surgeons who use needles all the time should automatically qualify?

    I do wonder if these vaccines have to be injected using needles or can the alternative method using pressure injections be used as is the case with some vaccination programs.

    Comment by Melvyn | January 4, 2021 | Reply

  2. This video from the always brilliant Dr John Campbell covers a new study that seems to show that those who catch COVID 19 and survive seem to be immune from catching it again.

    Tim

    Comment by Tim Regester | January 4, 2021 | Reply

  3. I like your comparison and that ought to put around 4m people either with anti bodies or a vaccine but so far its not helping the level of hospitalisations which is the key driver of restrictions to contain transmission. I wonder at what level we will start to see some moderation? Remember also there was an initial view that London not participating in the autumn upsurge was due to an inherent level of antibodies already built up from wave one that supposition now looks flawed so I remain cautious of any early benefits.

    In terms of the vaccination strategy where is the esteemed Minster of Vaccination Nadhim Zahawi explaining what it is that would surely help reassure people and even if its fluid give them some hope to keep hunkered down..

    Comment by Nicholas Lewis | January 4, 2021 | Reply

    • Thanks for that!

      Comment by AnonW | January 5, 2021 | Reply

  4. I had an injection for polio, but my kids had it with a sugar lump.

    Comment by AnonW | January 5, 2021 | Reply

    • We had a suspected polio outbreak in our school in early 70’s and we all just queued up and took a sugar lump never questioned whether it was safe or not just grateful to be given it.

      Comment by Nicholas Lewis | January 5, 2021 | Reply


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