Elizabeth Line’s £29million Fares Bonanza As Passenger Numbers Hit New High
The title of this post, is the same as that of this news item on msn.
These four paragraphs outline the story.
The Elizabeth line has enjoyed a £29m fares income bonanza due to record passenger numbers, it was revealed on Wednesday.
But the positive state of its finances – alongside a prediction that it will break even this year – came as line managers belonging to the TSSA union announced they would strike on May 24 in an unresolved pay battle.
This threatens to close the central section of the £20bn line, between Paddington and Abbey Wood, and embarrass Mayor Sadiq Khan and Transport for London as the walkout falls on the first anniversary of its opening.
Latest figures from TfL show the Elizabeth line is carrying 3.5m passengers a week – and at times almost four million.
After the experience of continuously rising passenger numbers after the opening of the London Overground, it looks like the so-called mathematicians of Transport for London have got their numbers wrong again.
I have some thoughts.
When There’s A Sniff Of Money, The Unions Strike
This seems to be the case.
Perhaps Now Is The Time To Expand The Elizabeth Line?
I would add extra services between Oxford and Southend Victoria.
The extra fare revenue could be spent on trains.
How Sideshore Technology Can Optimise The Layout Of Your Offshore Wind Farm By Applying State-Of-The-Art Algorithms
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
Smarter offshore wind farm layouts will accelerate the energy transition
These paragraphs outline the problem.
Wind farm layout optimisation is the art of defining the optimal locations of wind turbines, infield cables and substation structures. It presents a golden opportunity to increase project value.
The academic community has done extensive research into numerical wind farm layout optimization, however, in real projects, it is hardly ever applied. Wind farm layout optimisation is complex because it is multidisciplinary. A wind farm development is typically split into work packages (turbine, foundations, cables, substation). The location of each turbine influences the project cost across the various work packages. While wake effects are important, other aspects need to be considered as well. For example, water depth affects the foundation size. Turbulence levels need to be restricted. And cables, seabed preparation, and soil conditions are often neglected, while they too can have a substantial impact on costs. Fully optimising the turbine positions requires not only insight into wake interactions and the cost drivers across all work packages but also a way of linking everything together.
My project management software writing experience would take a system like this further and use the output pf their system to create the project network for a project management system.
The possibilities then are endless.
Wind Power For 1.2m Homes Is Wasted Because Of Lack Of Storage
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the Daily Telegraph.
These two paragraphs outline what happened.
Enough wind power to supply 1.2m homes a day was wasted over winter because there is no capacity to store extra energy generated on gusty days, according to new research.
National Grid’s electricity system operator asked wind turbines which were expected to generate about 1.35 terawatt-hours of electricity between October and January to switch off instead because they were not needed to meet demand at the time, according to the consultancy Stonehaven.
The problem has been flagged up by Rupert Pearce of Highview Power, who in my view could have a solution with their CRYOBatteries.
Pearce is quoted as saying this.
Renewable energy storage is essential to powering a cleaner, cheaper, always-on Britain.
By capturing and storing excess renewable energy, which is now the UK’s cheapest, most secure and most abundant form of energy, we can power Britain’s homes and businesses with renewable green energy, taking millions of tonnes of carbon out of the atmosphere and ending a culture of reliance on expensive foreign imports.
He’s too bloody right! And my experience of mathematical modelling large vessels at ICI in the 1970s, says that Highview Power have one of the sensible solutions to large scale energy storage.
World’s First Offshore Wind Farm Using 16 MW Turbines Enters Construction In China
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG) has started construction of the second phase of its offshore wind farm Zhangpu Liuao. The project will be both China’s and the world’s first wind farm to comprise 16 MW wind turbines.
I hope the Chinese have done all their calculations, research and testing. The dynamics of large wings are tricky and there are a lot of square law factors involved. I’d always be worried that at a particular wind speed a dangerous vibration will be setup.
How many Chinese engineers have seen videos of Galloping Gertie?
As the video says, no one was injured or killed, when the Tacoma Narrows Bridge fell into the river, but we nearly had a very similar disaster in the UK. I used to work at ICI in Runcorn and at the time, I lived in Liverpool, so every day, I went to work I crossed the Silver Jubilee Bridge twice.
One day, after a party in Cheshire, I even got so drunk, I had to stop the car on the bridge and was sick into the Mersey. It was before C and myself were married and she always claimed she nearly called the marriage off, after the incident.
But have you ever wondered, why that bridge is a through arch bridge rather than a suspension bridge as over the Forth, Hmber and Severn, which were all built around the same time?
Wikipedia has a section, which describes the Planning of the bridge.
The new bridge had to allow the passage of shipping along the Manchester Ship Canal. Many ideas were considered, including a new transporter bridge or a swing bridge. These were considered to be impractical and it was decided that the best solution was a high-level bridge upstream from the railway bridge. This would allow the least obstruction to shipping and would also be at the narrowest crossing point. The first plan for a high-level bridge was a truss bridge with three or five spans, giving an 8 yards (7 m) dual carriageway with a cycle track and footpaths. This was abandoned because it was too expensive, and because one of the piers would be too close to the wall of the ship canal. The next idea was for a suspension bridge with a span of 343 yards (314 m) between the main towers with an 8 yards (7 m) single carriageway and a 2-yard (2 m) footpath. However aerodynamic tests on models of the bridge showed that, while the bridge itself would be stable, the presence of the adjacent railway bridge would cause severe oscillation.
The finally accepted design was for a steel through arch bridge with a 10-yard (9 m) single carriageway. The design of the bridge is similar to that of Sydney Harbour Bridge but differs from it in that the side spans are continuous with the main span rather than being separate from them. This design feature was necessary to avoid the problem of oscillation due to the railway bridge. The main span measures 361 yards (330 m) and each side span is 83 yards (76 m).
But that misses out part of the story that I learned about at ICI.
I developed a very simple piece of electronics for ICI Runcorn’s noise and vibration expert. The equipment allowed the signals from two noise meters to be subtracted. This meant that if they were pointed in different directions, the noise generated by an object or piece of equipment could be determined.
The noise and vibration expert had tremendous respect from his fellow engineers, but his involvement in the design of the Runcorn bridge had elevated him to a legend.
The designers of the suspension bridge, that is detailed in the Wikipedia extract, presented their design to the ICI (Merseyside) Scientific Society.
The noise and vibration expert was at the meeting and questioned the design and said it would collapse due to oscillations caused by the presence of the railway bridge. He advised aerodynamic tests should be done on the bridge.
His back of the fag packet calculations were shown by tests to be correct and the bridge was built as a through arch bridge.
These pictures show the bridge.
They were taken from a train on the railway bridge.
US Utility Xcel To Put Form Energy’s 100-hour Iron-Air Battery At Retiring Coal Power Plant Sites
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on Energy Storage News.
This is the first two paragraphs.
‘Multi-day’ battery storage startup Form Energy’s proprietary iron-air battery is set to be deployed at the sites of two US coal power plants due for retirement.
Form Energy said yesterday that definitive agreements have been signed with Minnesota-headquartered utility company Xcel Energy for the two projects, one in Minnesota and the other in Colorado.
On their Technology page, they say this about their battery storage technology.
Our first commercial product is an iron-air battery capable of storing electricity for 100 hours at system costs competitive with legacy power plants. Made from iron, one of the most abundant minerals on Earth, this front-of-the-meter battery will enable a cost-effective, renewable energy grid year-round.
They also seem to be very much into grid-modelling technology. As I’ve build mathematical models for sixty years, I like that!
It does seem Form Energy is on its way.
Who Needs A Spoonful Of Sugar?
This article on The Times is entitled Lie Right To Help The Medicine Go Down.
These are the first two paragraphs of the article.
Next time you take an aspirin, try speeding up its effect by lying on your right. But don’t turn over, or you could be waiting a long time for pain relief.
Scientists have modelled the dynamics of the stomach in an attempt to understand how posture can affect drug absorption.
Strangely, I generally lie on my right.
In my life, I have done a lot of mathematically modelling of all sorts of systems.
It has surprised me several times how unexpected the results have been.
Are Vaccinators Scraping The Bottom Of The Barrel?
Yesterday, the vaccinations given were as follows.
- First – 3123
- Second – 4871
- Booster – 121439
Boosters still seem to be jabbing away, but first and second appear to have dropped off a cliff.
According to worldometer, the UK population is estimated at 68,411,061.
As 51,364,110 have had the first vaccination, that means that 17,046,951 or around 25 % of the UK population have not received any vaccination at all.
From this page on Statista, my rough estimate is that there are about twelve million in the UK under twelve.
I have used twelve as those over that age can be vaccinated according to this page on the NHS web site.
I suspect there are about five million in the UK or around seven percent of the over-12 UK population have not received any vaccination at all.
Are there that number of anti-vaxxers in the UK?
It now appears that I jumped the gun and the statistics were wrong.
This important data is not up to the quality I expect!
I suppose it is understandable as sums isn’t part of the PPE degree at Oxbridge.
Gresham House Unveils 45-MW Battery Storage Purchase
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Renewables Now.
This is the introductory paragraph.
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund plc (LON:GRID) has acquired a 45-MW portfolio of battery storage systems in England, growing its operational fleet to 395 MW.
Gresham House are certainly growing.
As a Control Engineer and mathematical modeller, I certainly like what they are doing.
Modelling the cash-flow and earnings from all these batteries are is one of the sort of multi-variable problems, that I cut my teeth on, in early 1970s.
If I was starting out on my own now, as I did in 1972, Gresham House would be one of the companies I’d approach.
Their latest purchase is interesting in that it includes a 35 MW battery with a twelve year control to load balance for the National Grid.
There must also be a business model emerging for the developers of energy storage.
- Design and build an energy storage system to satisfy a company or local area’s need.
- Show it is working successfully for a period of time.
- Add a nice lucrative contract if you can!
The whole setup is then sold to someone like Gresham House.
At present, Gresham House has a portfolio, which is all lithium-ion storage. I don’t think, it will be a long time before other types of storage are added.
A Thought On Covid-19
I am a Control Engineer, Mathematical Modeller and Statistician and have been following the data since the pandemic started.
Consider.
- Systems like the pandemic want to get to an equilibrium. And preferably one where they are in control. The virus tries to infect more people, so they can pass it on.
- But anybody, who is immune to the virus acts as a moderator does in a nuclear reactor, to slow the reaction down. So the more, who are immune in the population the better.
- As of today, 2,713,563 have tested positive for the virus and sadly 75,431 have died. That means at least 2.6 million have had the virus and survived. Are these people now immune to the virus? If they are, can they be added to those who are vaccinated?
- Also, how many people have had the virus and were not tested, but treated it like they might a cold? Are these safe from the virus, a second time around?
- What about children, who seem to have lower susceptibility to the virus?
- We can add in by the end of this week over a million, who have received the vaccine.
- We are at the present time having about 350,000 positive tests in a week. If these people with positive tests isolate as they should, that will be breaking the transmission of a lot of carriers.
- And then if the vaccine makers deliver two million a week and they are all used, that takes a lot of people out of the mix.
- How many people are shielding or working from home and never giving the virus a chance to infect them? It must be a couple of million.
These are all big numbers, but most of them are on our side and not that of the virus.
I watched BBC News at six and Emma Vardy said that in Northern Ireland, the vaccine might be having a positive effect. I wouldn’t have expected that this early!
I am more optimistic, than I was before I started to write this post.
Could the combination of lockdown and increasing numbers of vaccinations cut the rate of transmission of the virus?
A Reason To Be Cheerful
I have a good reason to be cheerful.
When my wife died in 2007, I had the problem of what to do, with the money from the sale of her Porsche.
Peer-to-peer lending was just starting, so as a trained control engineer and mathematical modeller, I gave them a good check out!
I then put the money into an automatic peer-to-peer lender, where you deposit the money, forget it and the computer lends it out. Some of my family and friends, including my accountant were horrified.
Then came 2008 and the banking crisis. Like a Flower-Class corvette in the teeth of an Atlantic gale, it bounced safely through the crisis.
Since, then it has earned more than the stock market and grown.
And it repeated a similar safe passage through the Covid-19 crisis.
It does seem that there are always people with a good credit ratings that want to borrow money.
How much of the money borrowed in 2020 was for home improvements to cater for a home office or home schooling?
Conclusion
I blame my mother! I got my skill with and feel for numbers, from her genes and the tutoring she gave me,
She had won a scholarship to Dame Alice Owen’s School, but was unable to go to University, due to lack of funds, so she became a comptometer operator in the Account’s Department at Reeves, who used to make artist’s materials and were based just round the corner from where I now live.
That was probably, the only sort of job a mathematically bright young lady could do in the 1920s.
The Anonymous Widower 