The Anonymous Widower

Likelihood Of Dying From A Positive Test For The Covids

Bob, one of my mentors on making sense of data always suggested looking at ratios, when you wanted to investigate a database.

These ratios are the chance of dying after a positive test for Covid-19 in various places in the UK, based on Government statistics.

At the moment, the ratios are mainly  from England, but I may expand them with time.

Countries

  • England – 2.8 %
  • Northern Ireland – 1.7 %
  • Scotland – 3.3 %
  • Wales – 2.3 %

Regions

  • London – 2.0 %

London Boroughs

  • Barking and Dagenham – 1.9 %
  • Barnet 2.4 %
  • Bexley – 2,0 %
  • Brent – 3.0 %
  • Bromley – 2.0 %
  • Camden – 1.7 %
  • Croydon – 2.8 %
  • Ealing – 2.1 %
  • Enfield – 10.1 %
  • Greenwich – 1.8 %
  • Hackney – 1.7 %
  • Hammersmith and Fulham – 1.8 %
  • Haringey – 1.8 %
  • Harrow – 2.9 %
  • Havering – 2.8 %
  • Hillingdon – 2.1 %
  • Hounslow – 2.1 %
  • Islington – 1.5 %
  • Kensington and Chelsea – 2.1 %
  • Kingston upon Thames – 2.2 %
  • Lewisham – 2.3 %
  • Merton – 2.5 %
  • Newham – 1.7 %
  • Redbridge – 2.1 %
  • Richmond upon Thames – 2.3 %
  • Southwark – 1.4 %
  • Sutton – 2.2 %
  • Tower Hamlets – 1.1 %
  • Waltham Forest – 1.9 %
  • Wandsworth – 1.9 %
  • Westminster – 2.0 %

Big Cities

  • Belfast – 1.9 %
  • Birmingham 2.8 %
  • Bradford – 2.3 %
  • Bristol – 1.3 %
  • Cardiff – 2.5 %
  • Coventry – 2.3 %
  • Derby – 3.3 %
  • Edinburgh – 3.4 %
  • Glasgow – 3.0 %
  • Hull – 3.1 %
  • Leeds – 2.1 %
  • Leicester – 1.9 %
  • Liverpool – 2.6 %
  • Manchester – 1.9 %
  • Newcastle – 1.8 %
  • Nottingham – 1.9 %
  • Sheffield 2.6 %

Medium-Sized Towns and Cities

  • Blackpool – 4.6 %
  • Bolton – 3.0 %
  • Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole – 2.4 %
  • Brighton and Hove – 1.9 %
  • Luton – 2.6 %
  • Middlesbrough – 2.8 %
  • Milton Keynes – 2.0 %
  • Peterborough – 2.2 %
  • Plymouth – 2.2 %
  • Portsmouth – 1.8 %
  • Reading – 3.0 %
  • Rotherham – 4.0 %
  • Salford – 2.9 %
  • Southampton 2.1 %
  • Southend-on-Sea – 3.0 %
  • Stoke-on-Trent 3.5 %
  • Stockport – 3.2 %
  • Sunderland – 3.8 %
  • Wakefield – 3.1 %
  • Warrington – 2.8 %
  • Wigan – 3.8 %
  • Wolverhampton – 2.9 %
  • York 2.0 %

English Countryside

  • Bath and North East Somerset – 1.6 %
  • Bedford – 3.7 %
  • Buckinghamshire – 2.3 %
  • Cambridgeshire – 2.6 %
  • Central Bedfordshire – 3.7 %
  • Cheshire – 4.0 %
  • County Durham – 3.5 %
  • Cumbria – 4.1 %
  • Derbyshire – 3.6 %
  • Devon – 3.0 %
  • Dorset – 3.4 %
  • East Riding of Yorkshire – 4.0 %
  • Essex – 2.7 %
  • Gloucestershire – 4.6 %
  • Hampshire – 3.3 %
  • Herefordshire – 7.8 %
  • Hertfordshire – 8.3 %
  • Isle of Wight – 3.4 %
  • Kent – 2.9 %
  • Lancashire – 3.1 %
  • Leicestershire – 2.9 %
  • Lincolnshire – 3.9 %
  • Medway – 2.6 %
  • Norfolk – 3.2 %
  • North Yorkshire – 3.1 %
  • Northamptonshire – 3.7 %
  • Northumberland – 3.6 %
  • Nottinghamshire – 3.0 %
  • Oxfordshire – 2.0 %
  • Redcar and Cleveland – 3.2 %
  • Rutland – 3.3 %
  • Shropshire – 4.0 %
  • Staffordshire – 4.0 %
  • Sussex – 3.0 %
  • Suffolk – 4.9 %
  • Surrey – 2.8 %
  • Torbay – 4.0 %
  • Warwickshire – 3.6 %
  • Windsor and Maidenhead – 2.6 %
  • Worcestershire – 4.0 %

Miscellaneous

  • Cornwall and Isles of Scilly – 2.8 %
  • Highland – 2.7 %
  • Isle of Wight – 3.4 %
  • Orkney Islands – 5.1 %
  • Scottish Borders – 3.8 %
  • Shetland Islands – 4.7 %

Note that all values are rounded to one decimal place.

Conclusions

Can I draw any conclusions from the data.

The Four Countries

The mean for the whole of the UK, is 2.8 %, which is the same as England.

  • Given that England is the largest country, this is not surprising.
  • But why is Scotland at 3.3 % higher than England and Northern Ireland and Wales substantially better than England?

Is this a result of devolution? Or a result of national character?

Town Or Country

Looking at English cities and larger towns, their values seem to be lower than the countryside.

I wonder why this is?

To be continued…

January 5, 2021 - Posted by | Health |

9 Comments »

  1. I would split the data up. In the first few months there wasn’t sufficient testing and treatmeant protocols were evolving, so not all cases were being detected initially and survivability has improved.

    Comment by Matthew | January 5, 2021 | Reply

    • It was more an experiment to see if it would show anything useful. Which I think it does!

      Comment by AnonW | January 6, 2021 | Reply

  2. Fascinating! Maybe countryside people only get tested when they are really ill, and town people fuss more and test more?

    Comment by Candy Blackham | January 6, 2021 | Reply

  3. I think it could be that if you live in a big town or city, your support network is better.

    I can walk to my GP and have done several times during lockdown for other issues, like a hand I hurt in a fall and flu and B12 injections.

    I have shops within a hundred metres for milk, eggs, bananas etc.

    I can walk to three M & S food stores for gluten-free food.

    I have lots of buses and black cabs are buzzing around.

    I can even get a bus from virtually outside my door to one of the best hospitals in the world.

    The only thing, I’ve bought on-line since the pandemic started was some decent face masks.

    Comment by AnonW | January 6, 2021 | Reply

  4. Blimey – is our old school borough, Enfield, some sort of aberration!

    I haven;t delved into the statistics – quite the contrary – but how are the figures for deaths being calculated. Is Covid counted as cause of death if someone who dies has a postive test, but quite clearly died for other reasons (car accident), or had a prior terminal illness with a very short life expectancy,how does this compare to rates of death from other causes (I know the issue of cancer is of great importance to you) and is there an agreed defiinition across all countries?

    alors – thoughts…

    Comment by PJS | January 6, 2021 | Reply

    • Enfield and Hertfordshire are the two worst areas I found. I am told by a friend in Cuffley, that hospitals are badly organised in the county. I wonder what the performance of Chase Farm is like.

      Barnet General, Chase Farm and Highlands were well below an acceptable standard in the 1960s. Highlands has gone and good riddance, as I live with their bad handiwork every day.

      It does seem strange, that there is only one hospital in both Barnet and Enfield. Haringey to the South is doing much better.

      It could also be to the large number of Ashkenazi Jews in Enfield. They have suffered badly.

      Comment by AnonW | January 6, 2021 | Reply

  5. My thoughts on Scotland are that a lot of people are long long way from a hospital. There are lot of isolated communities, who see each other every day but don’t see other people from outside. My nephew used to live in the Highlands of Scotland, on the west coast, in a small village. If he had called an ambulance it would take potentially a couple of hours to get there, and even more hours to get to a hospital with suitable facilities – I think it would be Edinburgh or Inverness. That particular village has had NO cases of covid – or hadn’t last time I spoke to him.

    Where I live you could be in hospital, in 20 or so minutes – or at least in the queue to be taken in. That said, the hospital’s CQC report says it is in need of improvement, and it really is in need of a LOT of improvement. I told CQC that when I was asked when they came to the ward I was on.

    Comment by nosnikrapzil | January 6, 2021 | Reply

  6. You could be right! When I used to live in Enfield, as a child, there were three hospitals; Barnet, Chas Farm and Highlands. Highlands buggered my body and I feel the pain from a botched repair to my left arm after a fracture, every day. It closed many years ago and now there is just one hospital in a borough of 333, 900 people.

    And Chase Farm isn’t good.

    Comment by AnonW | January 6, 2021 | Reply

  7. Speed of response might be one factor. The sooner you can get good, practical advice about what you should do from a doctor (GP or online/phone service) the more likely you are to have a good outcome.

    My GP’s amazing response in sending a taxi with an oximeter* when she realised my breathing was deteriorating and then calling for an ambulance when the readings showed dangerously low oxygen levels probably saved my bacon. (* I’ve now bought my own.)

    Fast response is obviously a lot harder in remote communities, while urban areas served by slow/unresponsive healthcare providers may well be losing more than the average number of patients. That might explain some of these strange – but very interesting – figures.

    Comment by Stephen Spark | January 7, 2021 | Reply


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