A Zopa Surprise
I have three Zopa loans that have gone bad and have been written off. They have cost me £340.48 against total interest paid of pver £5,000. So it’s not too bad really.
Imagine my surprise when I found that after twelve months of no payments, one of these dead loans credited me with three pounds. So there is some life there!
Is Zopa Getting Too Popular With Lenders?
I keep fairly detailed statistics of my lending on Zopa, so I am able to discern trends fairly quickly. I usually set my rate so that money will be lent out at a Medium speed, which usually means that I lend at a rate between of 7 and 8 percent, with a very low risk of default. Out of the well over 2,000 contracts I’ve lent, only three have gone to default, which is a default rate of just 0.13% by contracts and 0.07% in terms of money.
So I think I’ve got a safe philosophy. But who knows?
However, there is a trend that has started to be noticeable this month.
Zopa allows you to find how much money is wanted by clients and how much is available at all times. Obviously to get a good lending speed to clients, the amount of money on offer should be higher than that demanded. At the start of the month the ratio of Money Offered over Demand was about 2, but it has since risen to over 3.
The reason is obvious as in that time the money on offer has risen from about £15M to £20M.
As every action has an equal and opposite reaction, the extra money has forced the rates that borrowed have to pay down by about half a percent.
So I am now not getting as good a return as I was in the past. But I’m not bothered as the money is much safer than it was in an Icelandic Bank and my returns overall are upwards of five percent, which is above the High Street.
I think though the corollary of this, is that if you need a few thousand to buy a car and you have a good credit rating, then Zopa will be a better place to borrow.
Don’t believe me, but read this article in the Daily Mail about a lady, who wanted £5,000 for a car!
What Do We Do With the Irish Problem?
At times, I think the euro is a good idea. But to be fair, it will only work, if everybody acts as a team and plays the same way and to the same objectives. But Greece and now Ireland have taken advantage of the rules to play the game their way. Robert Peston wrote a very good piece on his blog yesterday and got right to the point.
Ireland has got itself in this mess by pursuing an unsubstanable property bubble and then bailing out the banks and the builders with loans from the European Central Bank.
But what started it?
For more years than I can remember, Irish thoroughbred breeders got it easy in the region of taxes. There were so many crazy rules, such as stallion fees being except of tax and that is why all the best stallions outside Middle Eastern ownership are in Ireland. And when it came to sell yearings and fials, did English breeders get the price their horse deserved? Sometimes but not always! In fact because of the racehorse tax situation, Tattersalls, the auctioneers, thought about moving to Ireland.
In fact you might argue, that the parlous state of racing and breeding in the UK, France, Germany and Italy, is down to the Irish and their feather-bedded industry!
But it’s not just horse owners and breeders, that get this treatment.
Irish corporate taxes are out of line with the rest of Europe and consequently, many companies use Ireland as a legal way of minimising taxes.
This is wrong and European finances will not return to sanity until we all play by similar rules in the areas of budget deficits, corporate taxes, working practices andpensions.
But it will not be easy, as look at the problems, France has been having trying to put a modicum of sense into its pensions.
So to repeat Gladstone’s famous question. which of course was part of “If you solve the Irish question, the Irish change the question!”
So Ireland, you must change the question! Ireland has one of the most educated populations in the EU. perhaps their insistence on not needing the bailout is a good policy and the start of this process.
But remember too, we have extensive investments in the country and they have a lot in the UK, so perhaps if we worked together more in all sorts of areas, we might both do each other some good, despite past troubles.
More Players in Peer-to-Peer Lending
This article should be read before you delve into something like Zopa, as it gives a good summary of how the peer-to-peer market works and who the players are.
I think I’ll stick with Zopa for the time being.
Zopa Brings in a Get Out Method
Zopa is in the process of introducing a get out or sell your loans on method, if you want to cash in and use your money for another purpose.
They call it Rapid Return and effectively loans are passed on to another lender.
I’m not sure if I shall use it, but it makes sense for a lot of lenders.
One restriction is that your can’t pass on a loan with a failed payment.
This does not affect me much, as nearly all of myof loans with a failed payment are now up to date, but I don’t think I will cash in any of the others, as most seem to have been going for over eighteen months at slightly higher rates than I can get now. So those are probably best left to generate interest until they are repaid in a few months.
I seem to have eleven loans, where my contribution is £300 and they were lent out at 8% over two years ago. Most are about 60% repaid, so they have done well. None has a failed payment. So I could recover about £1320, by selling the loans on. If I chose to keep these eleven loans, ‘ll get additional interest of about £100.
So it strikes me that Rapid Return may have uses for some people, it is not worth cashing in good loans, unless you have a desperate need for the money.
On the other hand, buying parts of these loans may well be worthwhile, as old loans tend to be at higher interest rates than those today.
I shall eep you up-to-date on progress here.
Trying to Stop Inevitable Decline
There are two related stories today about improving the lot of rail passengers and improving the Royal Mail.
The Royal Mail is probably past saving especially if they raise prices, as people will not be prepared to spend more to get letters delivered, when e-mail and the telephone is there. After all phone charges are dropping because of competition and the Royal Mail will only compete by dropping prices.
As to improving trains, we need to replace some old stock like the Pacers, but many are saying they’ve had enough with commuting five days a week and are using the Internet to cut some of those journeys. We are also getting to a point, where people won’t pay more to commute, if stories about low-ridership on the fast commute lines to St. Pancras are true. So perhaps we might see some strategic spending on the worst parts of the network, but the grandiose plans of some are surely dead in these austere times.
Power to the People.
David Cameron is proposing putting details of a lot of Government expenditure and plans on the Internet, so that anybody with time on their hands can scrutinise it. It is an idea that I totally approve of. In fact, I think we need a lot more information there, so that people can have statistics to back their theories; conventional or not!
Hasty Legislation Often Doesn’t Work
This article entitled London landlords cash in as MPs play by the rules, also in the Independent, shows how when you do things quickly, you often don’t get the result you wanted. Before the expenses claim, this article says that the average monthly mortgage claim was £694.63. Now the average rental claim is £1,173.81.
It sounds like in order to get the morality right, we have created a system that doesn’t give the best value in all cases.
C would have thought this par for the course, as the number of times she came home complaining how the new laws about families, children, divorce and dogs were often worse than those that had been in force before.
Zopa and the Davids
According to their site, the most common name for both borrowers and lenders is David. Is that because it is the most common name amongst the general public.
When I worked as a consultant to Lloyds Bank, they always joked that most bank managers were called John, as they were so boring!
But then the only good one I ever knew was called David. Where is he biw, when the world needs him?
Would You Trust Western Union?
I’ve never used them, but I’m led to believe they are a reputable company.
But as I get at least five e-mails every day, where the company is mentioned in some form of scam, I don’t think I would even use them to transfer money to someone who I knew to be totally genuine. And I wouldn’t accept any money from someone who wanted to use Western Union!
So why do they allow their name to be taken in vain, by all these criminals?
The Anonymous Widower 