What Effect Would A Yes Vote In The Scottish Referendum Have On Peer-to-Peer Lending?
I’m prompted to ask this question, as there is a feature in the Times Money section today about the implications of the Scottish Referendum on personal finance.
Searching the Internet for “Zopa Scottish Referendum” there is this discussion in Zopa’s forum.
I’m using Zopa as an example, as it’s the peer-to-peer lender, that I know best.
There is nothing really of importance said and most participants don’t seem bothered.
I see a few small problems, but nothing that major for myself, as I suspect only a couple of percent of my money is loaned to those North of the border.
Scotland Bans Peer-to-Peer Lending
An independent Scottish government could decide to ban peer-to-peer lending (P2P) to protect Scottish banks. After all P2P lending is taking a sizeable and increasing part of the lending market.
This might mean that Scottish loans came into default. But I suspect that under International financial law, the loans would have to be repaid.
The main effect would be in the ability to make new loans to Scottish borrowers and accept money from Scottish savers. But that would only effect Scottish voters and businesses.
Scotland Makes Debt Recovery Difficult
Scottish law is already different to English and I’ve not heard of any P2P lenders having any problems collecting debts.
On the other hand, there are some advantages to having your money in a P2P lender like Zopa.
- Zopa has a balanced portfolio of loans all over the four countries of the UK.
- Zopa doesn’t invest money in investments that would be effected by the break-up of the UK.
- Your money is guaranteed, but this guarantee is not dependent on government favour.
- For Scottish savers, with all the uncertainty of the referendum, it might a reliable P2P Lender like Zopa, might be a safe port in a storm.
A break-up of the UK might not be plain sailing for P2P investors, but I would be very surprised if there were serious problems.
Where Are All The Yes Voters?
I’ve got quite a few friends and acquaintances, who will be entitled to vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum.
I have yet to talk to anybody who can vote, who have said they will be voting Yes! Several have very forcefully said they will vote No!
I don’t care either way how the vote goes, although if Scotland decides on independence, that will finish the argument once and for all and my legal friends, will be able to put their noses in the big full trough, that the hassles over breaking up will create. As we all know, the only winners in divorce are lawyers and paper manufacturers.
So despite what the polls and bookies say, where are the Yes voters?
The Odds Are Going Towards Yes
When I first looked up the Scottish referendum odds on Odds Checker, the results were as follows.
August 25th
No! – 1/8
Yes! – 9/2
They are now.
September 2nd – No! – 1/4 Yes! – 3/1
September 5th – No! – 2/7 Yes! – 14/5
September 7th – No! – 4/9 Yes! – 9/4
September 9th – No! – 4/9 Yes! – 2/1
But they’ve now started to go the other way.
September 11th – No! – 3/10 Yes! – 10/3
September 12th – No! – 5/19 – Yes! – 7/2
September 15th – No! – 1/4 – Yes! – 7/2
September 17th – No! – 2/9 – Yes! – 15/4
So it would appear that the vote is moving towards a Yes! It’s been quite a swing in the first seven days.
The Real Winners In The Scottish Referendum
I’ve just looked up the betting odds for the Scottish Referendum on Odds Checker.
Typical prices as I write this are.
No! – 1/8
Yes! – 9.2
The bookies are usually right and with these odds, I think there can be only one winner.
But odds change, so check the current odds before making a decision.
If I had a vote in this referendum, I would not have been impressed by the performance of Darling and Salmond. But then whenever I see a man called Darling, I’m reminded of Blackadder.
How Would The Scottish Diaspora Vote On Independence?
I ask this question as the BBC has a story about five famous Scots, who live outside Scotland would vote.
I can’t find a poll of Scots outside Scotland asking how they would vote, but I can add an anecdote.
I used to play real tennis with an American, who was an academic at Cambridge. His research area was the relationship of the diaspora, with their original country. He had found that a lot of the troubles in the Indian sub-continent had been funded by donations from abroad. As a Bostonian, he did add that he didn’t think that the Irish in his home city, had helped find a solution in Northern Ireland.
I also think, that we all like places where we grew up or to which we have a strong connection, to do well and have control of their destiny.
For this reason, it could be that if Scots living outside Scotland had the vote, then the referendum would more likely be a vote for independence.
So could Alex Salmond have got it wrong, on not allowing Scots abroad to vote, if he wants the vote to go his way?
A Scot Gives His Reason To Say No!
On BBC Television this morning, a proud Scot said that he enjoyed the ceremony last night. For him, one of the uplifting moments was the Red Arrows.
He stated that if the Scots vote Yes, then there could be no more displays north of the border. See where their displays for 2014 are here. Two and last night’s performance are in Scotland.
Would You Buy A Political Idea From This Man?
Gordon Brown is going to outline his ideas for better power sharing between London and Edinburgh. It’s all here on the BBC.
I doubt anybody will be listening!
I certainly won’t be, as he was one of the idiots, who saddled the UK with that useless bank, the Royal Bank of UK Taxpayers, for which we are all still paying.
It would have been so much cheaper to liquidate it and then pay everyone who lost out in taxpayers money. But that would have meant Labour losing all votes in Scotland!
The Anonymous Widower 