Free as a Lark
My horse runs at 3:30 at Nottingham today. She is 33-1 and is only having a first run.
She’ll probably be very green, so no bets unless you’re stupid.
I Was Wrong Last Night
I was wrong last night when I said Cameron would scrape home. He didn’t.
But we live in very interesting times.
I suspect that it could all turn out for the better, but I’m not sure how.
Scenario 1 has Brown clinging to power with all the odds and sods helping him. It would be a Parliament of all the losers. I doubt it would last long and it would result in a new election which would probably give Cameron a big majority in England. That wouldn’t be a good idea either.
Scenario 2 has Cameron trying to run a minority government in a traditional manner. We’d get another election in a few months and probably Cameron would end up with less seats.
But there is another way. There must be!
Remember, MPs don’t want another election, so could we have a sort of Grand Coalition? Probably now, but supposing Cameron tried to run a minority government and to help him he brought in secret ballots in the House of Commons.
Would there be enough in the other parties to help him govern, if their Whips didn’t know how they were voting for?
Still No Result
There’s now been 57 seats declared and it’s still not clear. Swing ignoring Northern Ireland may be enough for Cameron, if the figures from the North East hold up in the rest of England.
But I’ll stick my neck out and say that Cameron will get a majority. Or at least a majority with Northern Ireland supporting him. Remember Sinn Fein don’t turn up.
The Battle of the Web Sites
I’ve been watching the elrction results on the BBC’s web site.
Just opened the ITV’s one. And closed it immediately.
The First Tory Seat is a Gain
Kingswood with a 9.4% swing.
This coupled with average swings of about 8 to 9 in the North East might well mean that Cameron has an overall majority.
Dimbleby has just said that!
Neil Kinnock has just said it is not good for Labour.
The Anonymous Widower 