The Anonymous Widower

The Worst Value Project You Can Find?

Not my words but part of a quote from Dr. Richard Wellings of the Institute of Economic Affairs from 2013 about the Borders Railway, from this article on Rail News entitled Borders Railway Passenger Figures Ahead Of Target.

To be fair to Dr. Wellings, this is the original report with the full quote on the BBC, which is entitled Borders railway decision ‘insane’, says Institute of Economic Affairs. This is said.

Dr Richard Wellings of the IEA told BBC Scotland: “Even looking at the official figures, this is just about the worst value project you can find.

“The whole project’s insane. The average strategic road scheme has a benefit cost ratio of around five, which is ten times higher than the Borders railway, so this is a gross misallocation of resources, particularly when there are still huge problems on the road network in Scotland.”

These are the latest figures of usage from Transport Scotland and Scotrail published in the Rail News article.

  • Tweedbank: forecast 18,978 — actual 183,918
  • Galashiels: forecast 20,567 — actual 104,593
  • Stow: forecast 5,129 — actual 24,365
  • Gorebridge: forecast 79,014 — actual 39,400
  • Newtongrange: forecast 46,449 — actual 50,480
  • Eskbank: forecast 114,568 — actual 65,672
  • Shawfair: forecast 54,298 — actual 9,398
  • Brunstane/Newcraighall: forecast 865 — actual 11,344
  • Edinburgh: forecast 228,156 — actual 205,203

This adds up to totals of forecast: 568,023 — actual 694,373.

Actual has exceeded the forecast by 22%, which  certainly seem to be a bad case of London Overground Syndrome, that benign disease, where more passengers use a new railway than forecast.

June 2, 2016 - Posted by | Travel | , ,

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