The Anonymous Widower

A Policy For Brexiteers

As to why people voted to Leave, I have found this academic document from NatCen, which is entitled Understanding the Leave vote.

The summary of their findings are as follows.

  • Identity politics played a role
  • Voters not persuaded by arguments about economic risks
  • ‘New voters’ leant towards Leave
  • The vote split across traditional party lines
  • Turnout favoured Leave
  • Leave brought together a broad coalition of voters

I think it is important that to do well in the General Election, parties must surely key in to the Brexiteers!

Wikipedia gives the Results of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016 and from that I have extracted all areas that voted over seventy percent for Brexit.

  • Ashfield – 70.5%
  • Barnsley East – 70.7%
  • Bolsover – 70.8%
  • Boston And Skegness – 74.9%
  • Castle Point – 72.7%
  • Clacton – 70.0%
  • Doncaster North – 72.0%
  • Dudley North – 71.4%
  • Dudley South – 70.2%
  • Great Grimsby – 71.4%
  • Great Yarmouth – 71.5%
  • Kingston-upon-Hull East – 72.6%
  • Mansfield – 70.9%
  • South Basildon And East Thurrock – 73.0%
  • South Holland And The Deepings – 71.1%
  • Stoke-on-Trent North – 72.1%
  • Stoke-on-Trent South – 70.7%
  • Walsall North – 74.2%

By comparison, these cities voted for over sixty percent for Brexit.

  • Kingston-upon-Hull – 67.6%
  • Stoke-on-Trent – 69.4%
  • Sunderland – 61.3%
  • Wakefield – 66.4%
  • Wolverhampton – 62.6%

It is an interesting set of statistics, with most of the areas not having the best of economic prospects

So far none of the leaks and policies from the various parties seem to be aimed at the areas of the UK, where there was a strong Leave vote.

Those that voted to Leave probably did so for a variety of reasons, but if you look at many with a high proportion of Brexiteers, they are areas with not the best economic circumstances.

I haven’t gone through all the constituencies, but I will, but several feature in A Look At New Station Projects, where I looled at all proposed projects.

In January 2017, I wrote Government Focuses On New Stations And Trains and I just wonder, if we will see a substantial New Stations Fund from the Conservatives, so that some of these places get better connections to where there is work, housing, education, leisure or opportunities.

It seems £10million, buys a reasonable station, so £100million a year would over the life of a parliament create up to fifty stations, especially if they built them like Ilkeston station in under a year.

I will now look at the individual constituencies.

Ashfield

Ashfield is based on the towns of Sutton-in-Ashfield and Kirkby-in-Ashfield, both have which have stations on the Robin Hood Line.

Plans exist to develop this line along existing freight routes in good condition with perhaps two or three simple stations. Add in some better trains and make the frequency two trains per hour (tph) seven days a week and it could have a large positive effect.

Barnsley East

Barnsley East is centred on the town of Wombwell.

Wombwell station is on these two lines.

Both lines go through Barnsley.

Both lines are in good condition, but the trains are dreadful. Northern will be replacing these with better rolling stock, with the eventual aim of having new Class 195 trains in service by 2020.

If you wanted to give the area a quick fix, you could send in the Class 319 Flex trains at the end of this year.

Bolsover

Bolsover is centred on the town of Bolsover.

There are vague plans to link Bolsover to the rail network using the partly mothballed Doe Lea Line, but nothing concrete. Wikipedia says this.

The Doe Lea line south from Seymour Junction to Bolsover has been mothballed as it runs through the new Markham Vale Enterprise Zone at M1 Junction 29A. It is hoped that someone will invest in this infrastructure to create road-rail interchange facilities.

I can find no reference to any progress.

Note that Bolsover’s MP is left-wing Labour veteran; Dennis Skinner.

Boston And Skegness

Boston And Skegness is a rural constituency in South incolnshire.

The Poacher Line links Skegness and Boston to Nottingham via Sleaford and Grantham.

There is an approximately hourly service along the line, using Class 156 trains and Class 158 trains, but the line probably needs two tph, with good connections to the Peterborough to Lincoln Line at Sleaford.

Castle Point

Castle Point is in South |East Essex.

The railways in this area are generally good, but c2c has expansion and fleet renewal plans.

Clacton

Clacton is in North East Essex.

The railways in this area are gebnerally good, but Greater Anglia have expansion and fleet renewal plans.

Doncaster North

Doncaster North is in South Yorkshire.

The railways in this area suffer because of bad rolling stock and not being electrified.

Note that Doncaster North’s MP is Ed Milliband.

New diesel or bi-mode trains between Doncaster and Sheffield via Rotherham would make a great difference.

If you wanted to give Doncaster North a quick fix, you could send in the Class 319 Flex trains at the end of this year.

Dudley North And Dudley South

Dudley North and Dudley South are the two constituencies for Dudley.

The Wednesbury – Merry Hill Extension of the Midland Metro, is planned to connect Dudley to Birmingham, Wolverhampton and the Merry Hill area.

Great Grimsby

Great Grimsby is centred on Grimsby.

Grimbsy Town station doesn’t receive the best of services. Changes are happening according to Wikipedia.

Great North Eastern Railway had put forward proposals in 2014 to create a rail link between Cleethorpes and London Kings Cross, calling at Grimsby Town, Habrough, Scunthorpe and Doncaster, arriving at a new modern Kings Cross station. This service would have been introduced by December 2017 if Alliance Rail’s plans had been accepted by the Office of Rail Regulation and would create the first direct link to London since 1986. In May 2016, it was announced by the ORR that GNER had been refused permission to operate these services.

In October 2017, services between Cleethorpes and Barton-on-Humber will be transferred to East Midlands Trains – the only remaining Northern operated service left at Grimsby thereafter will be the Saturdays-only one between Sheffield and Cleethorpes via Brigg.

Like most of Lincolnshire, improvement is needed.

Great Yarmouth

Great Yarmouth is at the Eastern side of Norfolk.

The railways in this area are gebnerally good, but trains are infrequent.

Greater Anglia have expansion and fleet renewal plans, with some new infrastructure from Network Rail.

If you wanted to give Great Yarmouth a quick fix, you could send in the Class 319 Flex trains at the end of this year.

Kingston-upon-Hull East

Kingston-upon-Hull East is the Eastern side of Kingston-upon-Hull.

For one of the major cities in the UK, Hull has once of the worst train services.

New trains and the development of the existing lines with perhaps electrification to the East Coast Main Line could give the area improvement.

Mansfield

Mansfield is in North Nottinghamshire.

Mansfield station is on the Robin Hood Line.

Plans exist to develop this line along existing freight routes in good condition with perhaps two or three simple stations. Add in some better trains and make the frequency two trains per hour (tph) seven days a week and it could have a large positive effect.

South Basildon And East Thurrock

South Basildon And East Thurrock is in South Essex.

The railways in this area are generally good, but c2c has expansion and fleet renewal plans.

South Holland And The Deepings

South Holland And The Deepings is another Lincolnshire constituency.

The Peterborough to Lincoln Line and the Poacher Line cross at Sleaford station, but passenger trains are elderly and infrequent.

Stoke-on-Trent South

Stoke-on-Trent South is one of the constituencies in the city of Stoke-on-Trent.

Reading the Wikipedia entry for Stoke-on-Trent station, you get the impression, that train companies have dealt Stoke a bad hand in recent times.

I have no doubt that if Stoke were in France or Germany, there would be a tram or light rail system i the city.

Walsall North

Walsall North is a constituency in the North of the West Midlands.

Walsall station is on the Chase Line between Birmingham and Rugeley.

The line is being fully-electrified, but Network Rail are badly suffering from the E-word.

If you wanted to give Walsall a quick fix, you could send in the Class 319 Flex trains at the end of this year.

Summing Up The Brexit Areas

I think that the rail industry and the politicians who control them have let down some of these constituencies.

The electrification of the Chase Line is a classic Network Rail failure, possibly cheered on by a nimby MP, actually objecting to a faster rail service.

Other areas like South Yorkshire, North Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire, need plans to widen the benefits of good public transport. Interestingly, all of these areas have good freight lines, often going through the sites of closed and much-needed stations.

I will ignore Essex in this analysis, as the county is getting improvement and the good people of the County, are just following their usual independent line.

If I can be criticised, it is that I have drawn my cut-off limits too high.

Go further down the list and you can add more constituencies to the South Yorks, North Notts, Lincoln area, which all scored nearly 70%.

  • Bassetlaw
  • Cleethorpes
  • Don Valley
  • Rotherham
  • Scunthorpe
  • Wentworth and Dearne

A lot more Essex and East London constituencies creep in as do a few in the West Midlands.

Conclusion

It is surprising how many of these depressed Brexit areas have a poor train service and probably bad bus services too. If you haven’t got a car, then you just vegetate and fade away.

Perhaps, improvement of our secondary rail routes, with more trains and stations, should be given a high priority.

May 16, 2017 - Posted by | Travel | , ,

7 Comments »

  1. The Leave vote was VERY strongly correlated with educational attainment (or rather the lack of it). Leave vote ~= percentage without A’ levels.
    The Labour manifesto, basically promising that Santa will bring everything on your present list, without any real idea how it will be paid for beyond daddy going over limit on his credit card…

    Comment by Mark Clayton | May 16, 2017 | Reply

  2. I only know one person, amongst my friends and regular acquaintences, who would admit to voting Leave and they are fairly well educated without a degree. But their attitude to foreigners and other issues, is totally at variance with mine.

    I think though in N1, you have to look extremely hard for a Leave voter.

    Comment by AnonW | May 17, 2017 | Reply

  3. On the day of the vote, I voted early in Buckinghamshire as the polling station opened- in rain and low cloud.
    I drove North North East and the weather improved strikingly when outside the M25 area, sunshine and a really nice day.

    I suspect that there must have been some impact on turnout of the miserable weather in the Southeast that day, and the glorious weather in the North and further East.

    Comment by David Collier | May 17, 2017 | Reply

    • the impact of weather is hugely overestimated now

      Comment by simonjkyte | May 17, 2017 | Reply

  4. https://www.r-bloggers.com/did-the-weather-affect-the-brexit-vote/

    Prof Fetzer from Warwick has thought about this, it seems, thought the analysis is interesting and there may be many more attempts out there.

    Comment by David Collier | May 17, 2017 | Reply

  5. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/does-weather-affect-voter-turnout-polling-day

    Suggests that there might be an interaction between weather, transport ease and turnout– better transport means bad weather has less impact on turnout.

    Comment by David Collier | May 17, 2017 | Reply

    • It would be interesting to see if cities like London, Liverpool, Nottingham, Cardiff, Glasgow and Edinburgh with good public transport systems had higher turnouts.

      Comment by AnonW | May 17, 2017 | Reply


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