The Anonymous Widower

Will The Extended Bakerloo Line Be Twenty-Seven Trains Per Hour All The Way?

There are two major projects that will be implemented on the Bakerloo Line in the next decade or two.

• The replacement of the current 1972 Stock trains with the New Tubes for London.
• The extension of the line to Lewisham station.

I certainly feel, that the two projects will bring the Bakerloo Line into the twenty-first century

The Planned Train Frequency

Under Current And Future Infrastructure, the Wikipedia entry for the Bakerloo Line says this.

Transport for London proposes to upgrade the line eventually, but not until other deep-level lines have been dealt with. This will include new signalling and new trains, enabling a maximum frequency of 27 trains per hour. TfL currently expects these to be in place by 2033.

Twenty-seven trains per hour (tph) seems very much in line with other deep-level Underground Lines.

• Central Line – 35 tph
• Jubilee Line – 30 tph
• Northern Line – 24 tph for each branch
• Piccadilly Line – 33 tph after upgrade.
• Victoria Line – 36 tph

Perhaps, it is a bit lower, but the engineers usually manage to squeeze more out of a line.

The Bakerloo Line Extension To Lewisham

The planning is underway to extend the Bakerloo Line to Lewisham station.

The Bakerloo Line Extension looks like it will be a four-station extension, with interchanges at Elephant & Castle, New Cross and Lewisham.

This map from Transport for London, shows the extension.

I think it will be highly likely, that the extension will be built using a similar design and techniques to that of the Northern Line Extension to Battersea.

• It will be double-track.
• There are unlikely to be any junctions.
• The Lewisham station will have two platforms with overrun tunnels.
• There appears to be no depot planned.

I have come to some conclusions about the design.

Planned Frequency

If the track layout of the extension and particularly at Lewisham follows the layouts of the Victoria Line termini, I can see no reason, why the proposed frequency of twenty-seven tph can’t be achieved.

I also suspect that provision will be made, so that the frequency can be increased.

A higher frequency would also be expected if the Bakerloo line, were to be further extended to two separate branches, as the map indicates.

Number Of Trains

I suspect that for the extension to work in an optimum manner new trains will be needed.

Project Timescale And Cost

The Northern Line Extension to Battersea appears to be taking about six years from sign-off to completion.

This extension is twice as long and has double the number of stations, but is probably not as grand.

I would put my money on a seven year project and a couple of billion.

As it is unlikely, that the required new trains will not be available until 2033, the project probably has a sign-off date of around 2025.

The project could be pulled forward.

• The trains could be built after those for the Piccadilly Line.
• An early decision could be made.

Saying go in 2022 would enable a finish in 2029.

The Northern Section Between Queens Park And Watford Junction

North of Queens Park station, the line is double-track all the way to Watford Junction station.

Queens Park Station

At Queens Park station itself, it’s a lot more complicated.

This map from carto.metro.free.fr shows the track layout at Queens Park station.

Note.

1. The Watford DC Line of the Overground is shown in orange and runs through Kilburn High Road and Queens Park stations.
2. The Bakerloo Line is shown in brown and runs through Kilburn Park and Queens Park stations.
3. There are reversing sidings to the West of Queens Park station for the Bakerloo Line.

The following services go through or terminate at Queens Park station.

• Three tph between Euston and Watford Junction on the London Overground.
• Six tph between Harrow & Wealdstone and Elephant & Castle on the Bakerloo Line.
• Three tph between Stonebridge Park and Elephant & Castle on the Bakerloo Line.
• Eleven tph between Queens Park and Elephant & Castle on the Bakerloo Line.

It is also likely that the Overground service will go to four tph.

So this means that services will be as follows.

• Four tph on the Watford DC Line run through Kilburn High Road station.
• Twenty tph on the Bakerloo Line run through Kilburn Park station.
• Nine tph on the Bakerloo Line run through Queens Park station.
• Four tph on the Watford DC Line run through Queens Park station.
• Eleven tph on the Bakerloo Line terminate at Queens Park station.

Thirteen tph will continue to various destinations towards Watford Junction.

What Is The Capacity North Of Queens Park Station?

So how many trains could the double-track line between Queens Park and Wartford Junction stations handle?

Consider.

• All services on the line are london Overground or London Underground.
• There are no junctions, where services divide and join.
• There is a turnback facility at Harrow & Wealdstone station, that can handle six tph.
• The Overground trains are being replaced with Class 710 trains, which must be able to be made compatible with digital signalling.
• Watford Junction station has four platforms connected to the Watford DC Line.
• Good design should be able to make the stations step-free for both Class 710 trains and New Tube for London.
• The Watford DC Line service, always seems to terminate in platform 9 at Euston.
• London Underground have run thirty-six tph on the Victoria Line for about a year now.

I suspect that if the trains are digitally signalled, with a degree of Automatic Train Control, that there could be as many as thirty-six tph between Queens Park and Watford Junction stations.

I also think it is significant that the New Tube for London, specifies that the Bakerloo Line will run at twenty-seven tph. Why not more, if the theoretical capacity North of Queens Park is thirty-six tph?

But a single platform at Euston can probably handle six tph, so add 27 and 6 and you get thirty-three tph, which is the proposed core frequency of the Piccadilly Line.

Will The Bakerloo Line Run All The Way To Watford Junction?

Suppose too, that all Bakerloo services ran all the way to Watford Junction, as has been proposed in the past.

• This would simplify operation and especially at Queens Park, Stonebridge Park and Harrow & Wealdstone stations.
• Digital signalling would easily handle the frequency.
• The platform arrangement at Queens Park would be unchanged, with Euston services on the outside and Bakerloo services in the middle.

Watford Junction would have superb thirty-three tph service to two destinations in London.

Will The New Tube for London Run The Euston Service?

I will speculate, that the Watford DC Line service could be run by New Tubes for London..

• One type of train would be easier to handle for staff and passengers.
• All platform heights could be the same.
• All services would be step-free between train and platform.
• Digital signalling could easily handle thirty-three tph along the shared route.

In Thoughts On The Power System For The New Tube for London, I proposed that the New Tube for London could run on a conventional third-rail system.

This would further mean the following for the Bakerloo Line.

• New Tubes for London could use the existing track to access Euston, without serious modification.
• If the Bakerloo Line is extended to Hayes, Beckenham Junction or Bromley North stations, the existing tracks could continue to handle existing third-rail trains to provide other services.
• Only one type of train would be needed to run all services on the Bakerloo Line to its various destinations.

Use of New Tubes for London on all routes may be possible to create a service on the Northern section of the Bakerloo Line with the following characteristics.

• Twenty-seven tph between Watford Junction and Elephant & Castle stations.
• Six tph between Watford Junction and Euston stations.
• All stations would be step-free between platform and train.
• All trains would be identical New Tubes for London.
• All trains would run under Automatic Train Control, as does the Victoria Line.

All passengers on the existing Bakerloo and Watford DC Lines would see a better service.

The Bakerloo Line Extension to Lewisham

Note, that I have said nothing about the Bakerloo Extension to Lewisham.

In my view, that extension does what it says on the tin and creates a new twenty-seven tph service between Elephant & Castle and Lewisham stations, which brings new services to an area of South-East London, where they are much needed.

Effectively, the Bakerloo Line would become two twenty-seven tph lines, that happen to connect back-to-back at Elephant & Castle station to enable cross-London journeys.

Could Bakerloo Line Services Still Be Turned Back At Harrow & Wealdstone?

The following could be argued.

• Watford Junction doesn’t need twenty-seven tph on the Bakerloo Line and six tph to Euston.
• Watford needs a cross-Watford service like the in-limbo Croxley Rail Link.

So could a few trains be turned back using the existing facility at Harrow & Wealdston station to create paths to allow an appropriate service between say Watford Junction and Amersham stations?

More Frequent Services

If we look at the Victoria Line, where the frequency has increased over the last few years by the addition of various improvements, I would not be surprised to see the frequency of twenty-seven tph increased.

After all London Underground’s engineers have been squeezing Dear Old Vicky for half a century, so they must know more tricks, than Paul Daniels knew at the peak of his success.

Conclusion

Undoubtedly, the New Tube for London could run at twenty-seven tph all the way between Watford Junction to Lewisham stations.

Whether that frequency is needed all the way is another matter.

 

October 7, 2018 - Posted by AnonW | Transport/Travel | Bakerloo Line, Bakerloo Line Extension, New Tube For London, Watford DC Line