The Anonymous Widower

What Percentage Of People In The UK Survive COVID-19?

This is only a simple analysis based on the COVID-19 statistics published on Sunday, 26th April.

  • So far 152,840 people have been lab confirmed as having COVID-19.
  • There has also been 20,732 deaths in hospitals.
  • Suppose another 25% have died in care homes or in their own bed.
  • That would give a total of 25,915 deaths.
  • So rather crudely, if you get tested positive for COVID-19, you have a 17% chance of dying. What is the chance of dying from a serious stroke or breast cancer?
  • On the other hand 126,925 or 83% have survived.
  • Some, let’s say 20,000 are in ICU beds in hospitals, reducing the figures to 106,925 or 70% that survived.

We should be examining these seventy percent to see why they survived.

The official statistics concentrate on the negative side, but don’t publish figures like how many left hospital for convalescence at home or in an ordinary hospital ward!

Update – 27th April 2020

The actual figure of those in ICU beds yesterday was 18,667, which makes the figures 108, 258 and 71% have survived.

April 26, 2020 - Posted by | Health | , , ,

4 Comments »

  1. I think those daily conferences are to biased on those who have died with far less emphasis on those who have survived and we also have talk of unknown numbers of those who have had covid19 but have bodies that fought it off often without the person knowing .

    Perhaps now we have Boris Johnson back at work perhaps more should be said of those who have been into hospital and recovered , especially as this will hopefully become more the norm in coming weeks .

    It makes one think they don’t want to publish good news as they can’t work out an exit strategy,

    Comment by Melvyn | April 26, 2020 | Reply

  2. When discussing coronavirus deaths/survival, surely the only figures that matter are completed cases, ie those who have tested positive for the infection and either (1) survived or (2) died. The overall number of cases is really irrelevant, because many are still ongoing and haven’t yet been resolved as either (1) or (2). The daily death total is also pretty unhelpful as the stats lag some way behind actual deaths and still seem to take no account of those who die in care homes, at home or anywhere other than a hospital.

    From figures I saw about 10 days ago, the death rate in Europe seems to range from 30% to 40%. That’s pretty horrific and very far from the 3.4%, later 9%, that was being stated in Feb/early March.

    However, this takes no account of those who have had the infection but were never tested and survived (or died) without Covid-19 being identified.

    Perhaps we should not be too reassured by the word ‘survival’. We’re told that there’s evidence of some people being left with physical and mental injuries after discharge from treatment for serious Covid-19 infection; being kept on a ventilator for any length of time is known to pose a risk of lasting damage. Even if hospitalisation isn’t necessary, any but the mildest infection by Covid-19 is a clearly an extremely unpleasant and frightening experience and not one that any sane person would choose to go through.

    Covid-19 is very far from merely being the ‘nasty flu’ we were being reassured it was when the news first emerged from Wuhan. Nor – according to friends who are infectious diseases experts – was it ever considered such except by politicians trying to avoid ‘unduly alarming’ their populations and, perhaps, themselves. Thus reassured, the necessary preparations weren’t made, the necessary restrictions weren’t introduced, and by the time the bravado, dither and delay had been replaced by panic in Westminster, it was too late to prevent the inexorable rise of the ‘curve’ with the awful results we see now and will have to go on seeing for many weeks to come.

    Those (mostly from big business) who are pushing to lift the lockdown as soon as possible should keep in mind that death rate: 1 in 3. For those drunk on greed it ought to be sobering…

    Comment by Stephen Spark | April 26, 2020 | Reply

  3. Your final statement is exactly one of the driving goals of the self-reporting COVIDRadar.org (joinzoe) research project covering uk and us.

    I encourage all to join and perform daily update. Anonymous.

    Unfortunately the data will have a bias as it currently needs a smartphone, tablet or Chromebook to run the daily reporting app (no web, text or phone option).

    Comment by MilesT | April 27, 2020 | Reply

  4. I already report on COVIDRadar. I met Tim Spector a few years ago and his research is impressive.

    Comment by AnonW | April 27, 2020 | Reply


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