The Anonymous Widower

Equilibrium With The Covids

The rate of lab confirmed cases in six cities per 100,000 of the population are as follows.

  • London – 836.6
  • Leeds – 2128
  • Liverpool – 2113.6
  • Manchester – 2879.6
  • Sheffield – 2291.2
  • Hull – 1013.9

In addition, if you look at many individual London boroughs, they are around the 600-900 range.

Is There A London Equilibrium?

As London is a more-or-less coherent entity has  the virus found an equilibrium with the city?

As a Control Engineer, I think London is showing a classic example of water finding its own level.

I would suspect that the average Londoner, visits a couple of other boroughs very regularly.

Does this mean that the virus gets transferred regularly across borough boundaries and this levels things up?

Is There A Northern Equilibrium?

It also looks like the virus has found a higher equilibrium with the Northern cities.

If you look at other areas in the North, that sit between the major cities, they seem in line with rates in Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds..

The city that is out of line is Hull, which has a rate half that of the others. Could this be because of its location?

Suffolk In The Sixties

I remember Suffolk in the 1960s, when it was three counties; East Suffolk, West Suffolk and Ipswich.

All counties had different pub opening hours  people would drive miles to get an extra half-hour of drinking.

I wonder if the different regulations and lock-downs across the various parts of the North have actually increased travel across regions and spread the virus.

This behaviour has created an equilibrium between the virus and the population.

Is There A East Anglian Equilibrium?

These are the figures for the three East Anglian counties.

  • Cambridgeshire – 596
  • Norfolk – 536
  • Suffolk – 531

There is not a large spread in the figures.

Other Areas

I have looked at other areas and a similar pattern seems to apply, where the figures are more or less the same in somewhere like the West Midlands, the South West (Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset and Wiltshire) or Wales.

October 21, 2020 - Posted by | Health | , , , , ,


  1. Certainly there is anecdotal evidence that people from boroughs on the outskirts of Manchester were driving across the border into Liverpool and other places when we were first in the higher group and they weren’t – I think that was a long time ago. Now we are all in the same boat. It will be interesting to see what the levels do in Cheshire – Greater Manchester is bordered on East Cheshire, and parts of Liverpool are bordered on West Cheshire. As is North Wales – we are told by Mark Drakeford that we must not go to Wales, don’t know if there is an actual way they are stopping it.

    shielding; so doesn’t make any difference to me. I went out yesterday, to The Christie for a blood test. Very sad when I enjoyed being out for a reason like that.

    Comment by nosnikrapzil | October 21, 2020 | Reply

  2. People movements certainly even things up with a pandemic or something like measles.

    But also the local grapevine tells you places that are suffering badly and you avoid them if you can.

    Did you see the piece about the Christie on the BBC this morning?

    Comment by AnonW | October 21, 2020 | Reply

  3. Disparity of drinking ages (not opening hours) between the states of New York and New Jersey used to result in regular horrific accidents on the roads across the border. Another example of equilibrium (including the road which passed by the adult entertainment establishment featured in “The Sopranos”, which does actually exist consistent with the general geographic setting of the shoe but with a different name).

    Comment by MilesT | October 21, 2020 | Reply

  4. Thanks

    Suffolk was the same with traffic accidents around Ipswich, where the pubs closed at 10:30. In the county of East Suffolk it was 11 if you were unlucky and well past midnight at many pubs deep in the countryside.

    I can remember in the 1970s, leaving one particular pub several times after about two in the morning and driving home.

    Comment by AnonW | October 21, 2020 | Reply

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