Zopa and the Election
I am an inveterate analyser of data. After all it’s what I’ve done since I was about seventeen and I successfully explained the shape of the response I got when a small ferrous inclusion in a copper wire passed through an electromagnetic coil.
That was forty-five years ago.
So can all the data I’ve got from Zopa be used to explain how people feel about the election and show how Zopa is affected by what is going to happen on May 6th?
Here’s a graph of my returns since the start of the year.
Zopa Returns - 2010
The four lines on this graph are.
- The rate at which money is lent out in the A* Rate.
- The return on money in Zopa over the last six months. This takes account of any bad debts.
- The return on money over the last year. Bad debts as before.
- The return on money over the last year, adjusted for arrears. Bad debts are accounted for and if arrears are greater than a year ago, they are counted as bad debts.
Taking the last three it would appear that things have changed since the election was announced, as they have all dropped and then recovered slightly. This is solely due to an additional bad debt, caused by the death of the borrower. No system can take care of that very sad event.
Probably the best measure of the return is to look at it in the middle of the month. Today is the 13th, so the return on money over the last year is 5.42%, 5.35%, 5.38% and 5.18% for the last four months. So it has dropped 0.2% because of that bad debt. If that is eliminated then the return for April 13th would actually be 5.37%.
So the election has done what you’d expect and had no affect, as most deals were done whilst the date of the election was not known.
But look at the A* borrowing rate.
If you look at the graph, you’ll see that the rate often drops around the 5th to the 10th of each month. This is probably because most loans are paid around the turn of the month and the effect of that money being reinvested is to drop the loan rate slightly because of the supply of money being increased.
But this month it has dropped further than normal after creeping up slightly for the last month or so. Perhaps the rate has increased because of high demand for money.
Could this be that as reported retail sales have been high this month and people are borrowing at a rate they trust to finance it? Or are they worried about the new government increasing VAT?
But really there is no hard and fast evidence that Zopa is being seriously affected by the election.
I shall return to this as the elction approaches.
David Starkey and the Canadian Solution
I watched the political programme on BBC1 last night, This Week. One of my favourite broadcasters, David Starkey, gave a history lesson about Canada. He has a reputation for being difficult, but I needed to borrow a picture from one of his books for a web site and he was charm personified.
Fifteen years ago, the dominion was in a terrible mess, with massive borrowings and a stagnant economy. The new government cut very deeply and within three years many of the problems had been solved. Now Canada has the strongest growth rate of the countries in the G7.
Whoever wins the election must cut and cut very deeply. But they won’t!
An Undertaker’s Tea Party
The headline in The Times today compares Prudence’s launch of his campaign to an undertaker’s tea party.
It was a no-frills launch, positively Presbyterian in its austerity. Some said that Gordon Brown and his Cabinet looked just plain grim, like undertakers on a tea break. And it must be said, as they trooped out of the gleaming black door of No 10 at 10.48am, they did look as solemn as a sermon. The only thing sunny was above us, in the sky, on this lovely spring day that was troubled only by a soft breeze.
The launch cost nothing, a price Gordon can afford. The PM spoke through a mike hidden in the lapel of his Sunday best suit. His hair was (suitably) grey and newly cut, as perfect as a bowling lawn. The look of pure concentration on his face as he stood before us, the Cabinet fanned out on each side, looking like the Politburo but not as much fun, was that of a little boy desperately trying to remember his lines.
Certainly, he and his cabinet all look grim in the photo. But then the threat of redundancy affects people like that.
I do think though this article is rather a slur on undertakers. I met a quite few lately and I would never call them grim. Professional and serious, maybe, but then you would expect that.
Mandelson Told Off for Eating Crisps on the Radio
Colin Murray and Peter Allen were hosting a political discussion about the election on BBC Radio 5 this lunchtime.
Colin Murray had to tell Lord Mandelson off for eating crisps, as they were creating noise on the radio.
MPs for Hire
Stephen Byers, Patricia Hewitt and Geoff Hoon have been shown in a compromising position over offering themselves for hire on the Channel 4 programme, Despatches.
But their major crime is that they were stupid. And they were ex-ministers!
I think it just shows the sort of dross we have in Parliament.
We will continue to get time-servers, get-rich-quick-merchants, blow-your-own-trumpeters and other ne’er do-wells, until we properly reform Parliament.
They do work hard, or all the MPs I’ve known did, except one, they work unsocial hours, every part of their personal life is scrutinised by the tabloids and they have lots of family problems. And they do it all for a pittance, which when it is recommended it is increased, they never get all of it.
Could that be why the expenses were so lax and Byers etc., were offering themselves for hire?
Here’s my deal.
- Let’s have half the number of MPs and pay them twice the amount of money. We want quality not quantity.
- But no outside jobs, except perhaps expenses-only non-execs to major companies and organisations in their constituency.
- Put proper non-political staff in the constituency in a fixed office, that is obvious and the first port of call if you have a problem. If the MP changes, the office doesn’t.
- E-mail, SMS and other access to MPs or their offices.
- Give MPs a free and secret vote, so they are no longer party hacks. After all they are our MPs and not the parties.
- Free first-class rail travel to and from the constituency and sensible expenses for second homes if required.
We need a Parliament for the twentieth century, let alone the twenty-first.
Nicholas Winterton
There has been a lot of outrage over Nicholas Winterton’s interview on Radio 5 yesterday. Here’s The Times for example. I heard it and felt that on the one hand he had been stupid and on the other he had talked a lot of sense.
I usually travel Second Class on trains. I have a railcard which gives me discount, so I find it good value. But at certain times, I always travel First to avoid such things as families, spotty youths with over loud iPods, mobile phone users and over-crowded carriages. I also do it, when I have something complicated to read.
Where Winterton was right was when he said MPs should be entitled to First Class travel. If I was travelling with perhaps confidential papers about constituents or sensitive matters, I would always sit in a single seat in First, so that my neighbour couldn’t read the problems of Mrs. Smith with local hooligans.
Where he was wrong was in that he betrayed the arrogant attitude that so many of the great and good show. I have known four MPs well. Two were out and out nasty and grasping people and the others were totally charming and got things done. Who were the good? Gwyneth Dunwoody and John Gummer. I’ll let the others take their guilt to their graves. By the way none of the nasty were Tory.
I would love to have the late great Brian Redhead‘s view on Nicholas Winterton. Winterton was Brian’s MP and despite being on the opposite side of the political divide, I seem to remember they had a firm friendship.
Nothing is ever what it seems.
Cabinet on the Road
Prudence likes to take the Cabinet on the road to have meetings in different places. But as this article in The Times states.
The Cabinet Office has gone out of its way to play down the cost of sending the Cabinet out of London even though mandarins originally opposed the concept. A parliamentary answer suggested that the first in September 2008, held in Birmingham where there are key marginal seats, cost £72,756.
But as with many things Prudence and NuLabor say, the devil is in the detail. And the figure above doesn’t include security by the local police. This was said about one visit to Leeds.
Only West Yorkshire Police has so far revealed the cost of a visit: £130,000 was spent on security at the Government’s second Cabinet meeting, held in Leeds in November 2008, trebling the cost from an initial £67,198 to £197,198. The Prime Minister’s eight Cabinet meetings have cost the taxpayer an average of £200,000.
I’m all for government learning more by visiting different places, but surely if they all decided to get on Eurostar to have a meeting in Paris and then left immediately afterwards for London, they would learn little about the French capital. It would always be better to hold the meeting at the most mutually convenient place and then visit where necessary afterwards.
It would also seem that Prudence and his cronies were economical with the truth.
Twitter Twat
David Wright is the Nulabor MP for Telford and a whip. So you’d think he know how to behave.
But he’s in trouble for a tweet on Twitter, that calls the Tories, “scum-sucking”. Now, he is claiming that the tweet was edited by a third party. If it was, his security has been compromised probably by his own stupidity. If he’s not, he’s lying to try and save his skin.
But whatever is the reason, he just doesn’t understand things like Twitter. You have to be subtle in my view too, to get your message across.
I hope that the good people of Telford consign him to where he belongs at the next election.
