The Anonymous Widower

Crossrail’s Latest Issues Begs The Question, How Do We Judge Success In Transport Megaprojects?

The title of this post is the same as this article on Forbes.

The article makes some interesting points about transport megaprojects. It is definitely a must-read.

As an example of a megaproject that went wrong, it cites the Channel Tunnel, which exceeded its budget by 80%, required refinancing and then Eurostar only carried a third of forecast traffic.

This article on the BBC, which is entitled How Eurotunnel Went So Wrong, gives the full story of the Channel Tunnel finances.

So should it now be closed? Obviously not, as the alternatives of driving and flying would create a lot more unwanted carbon dioxide and would need more motorways and airports.

The benefits of building Crossrail, such as increasing the capacity of London’s transport system, reducing congestion in Central London and giving better access to Canary Wharf, East London, Heathrow, The City and West London will just come in a year or so later.

The article also says that according to Oxford professor; Bent Flyvbjerg, Crossrail is suffering a 7% cost overrun, where the average for rail projects is 45%.

In my view Crossrail has suffered from a number of problems that together have caused the cost and time overruns.

  • Not enough time was built into the schedule to test the sophisticated trains with their three signalling systems.
  • No dedicated Crossrail test track was created, so the trains could be fully tested.
  • An unfortunate transformer explosion, was a big cause of delay in testing systems.
  • There were not enough workers to finish the project.
  • Central London is awash with large projects, some of which became viable because of Crossrail, that are sucking up masses of workers.
  • Brexit uncertainty has meant that a lot of EU workers have gone back to Europe to build projects nearer their homes.

Where was the European project supremo, who added up all the needs of these European megaprojects, to make sure, we had enough resources to build all of them on time?

 

December 25, 2018 - Posted by | Transport | , , ,

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