The Anonymous Widower

A Waste Of Valuable Resources Between Paddington And Heathrow

Much of my working life was spent in writing project management software.

I like to think, I was an expert at writing software to juggle resources.

I wrote my first piece of software in that field in ICI, to get my boss out of trouble, after he’d promised the department a program to allocate the department’s office space more efficiently.

Unfortunately, the student, who’d written the software, without leaving anything that worked or any decent instructions.

So I told my boss;Colin, that I’d have a go.

In my previous position at ICI in Runcorn, I’d worked out an algorithm to decode mass spectrometer traces, which started with a rough idea of what was there, which was entered by an operator and then used permutations and combinations to fit the output.

I used the algorithm in every resource scheduler, I ever wrote and it worked a treat.

So when I see a waste of resources, I get angry, as I know those who devised the system could have done a lot better.

Look at these pictures, I took of a Heathrow Express, that I took today.

It is barely ten percent full.

It has become a waste of resources; train, valuable paths in the Heathrow  tunnel, and platform space at Paddington.

These are a few thoughts.

Capacity To And From Heathrow

Consider.

• Heathrow Express uses twelve-car Class 387 trains, with a capacity of 672 seats, that run at a frequency of four trains per hour (tph), which is 2688 seats per hour.
• The Elizabeth Line uses nine-car Class 345 trains, with a capacity of 454 seats, that run at a frequency of six tph, which is 2724 seats per hour.
• The Class 345 trains can also carry another 1046 standing passengers on each journey, which adds up to a maximum of 6276 standees per hour.
• The Piccadilly Line uses 73 Stock trains, with a capacity of 684 seats, that run at a frequency of twelve tph, which is 8208 seats per hour.

This gives a capacity of 19896 passengers, staff and visitors per hour, or which 13620 get seats.

Expressed as percentages, the four modes of transport are as follows.

• Heathrow Express – 13,5 %
• Elizabeth Line – Sitting – 13.7 %
• Elizabeth Line – Standees – 33.8 %
• Piccadilly Line – 41.2 %

In Effects Of The ULEZ In West London, I said this about journeys to and from the airport.

Heathrow Airport is one of the world’s busiest airports and 76,000 people work at the airport, with many more employed nearby.

The airport handled 61.6 million passengers in 2022, which is a few short of 170,000 per day.

If you consider that those that work at the airport do two trips per day and passengers generally do one, that means there are 322,000 trips per day to or from the airport.

But as it now so easy to get to the Airport using the Elizabeth Line will more people use the new line to meet and greet and say goodbye to loved ones or business associates. Since the Elizabeth Line opened, I’ve met a couple of friends at Heathrow, who were passing through.

I wonder, if that daily journey total of 322,000 could be nearer to 350,000 or even 400,000.

If the ULEZ charge makes some passengers and staff switch from their car to using a bus or train, this probably means that public transport to and from the airport, will need to be boosted by a substantial amount.

322,000 trips per day is 13, 416 per hour assuming a 24 hour day.

Consider.

• The ULEZ will drive employees and passengers to trains to Heathrow.
• A lot of would-be travellers to Heathrow have had a tough couple of years.
• Because of the Elizabeth Line more meeters and greeters will go to the airport.
• The Elizabeth Line is making it easy to get to Heathrow for a large proportion of those living in the South-East.
• There have been numerous car parking scandals at Heathrow and other airports.
• Are there enough charging points for electric cars in Heathrow’s parking?
• Parking at Heathrow is very expensive.
• Taxis to the airport are expensive.
• Passengers with large cases can use the Elizabeth Line.
• Good reports of the Elizabeth Line will push people to use it.
• The Elizabeth Line serves the City, Canary Wharf and the West End.
• The Elizabeth Line has a step-free connection with Thameslink.
• Passengers seem to travel with very large cases.
• Passengers seem to be deserting Heathrow Express, as I wrote in Elizabeth Line Takes Fliers Away From Heathrow Express.

Note.

1. The train, I took back from Heathrow this morning was full with all seats taken and quite a few standees.
2. And it was a Sunday morning!
3. We won’t know the effect of the ULEZ until August, but I believe it will be significant.

Obviously, I’m only using rough figures,  but they lead me to believe that in a few months, the Elizabeth Line will be at full capacity to and from Heathrow.

Heathrow Express’s Train Path Should Be Re-Allocated To The Elizabeth Line

This would increase hourly passenger capacity from 19896 to 23208 or by seventeen percent.

Great Western Railway would get two extra platforms at Heathrow and the Class 387 trains could be reallocated.

Where Would Great Western Railway Run Trains From Two Extra Platforms?

Consider.

• Various government levelling up funding has been allocated to Wales and the West.
• I talk about the Mid-Cornwall Metro in Landmark Levelling Up Fund To Spark Transformational Change Across The UK.
• The Mid-Cornwall Metro could include direct trains between London and Newquay.
• There are also plans for a new station at Okehampton Parkway.
• Given all the wind farm development in the Celtic Sea, I can see more trains between London and Pembrokeshire.
• Cardiff and Bristol would probably welcome extra services.

I don’t think Great Western Railway will have problems finding destinations to serve from two extra platforms.

What Will Happen To The Class 387 Trains?

Currently, twelve Class 387 trains are used for Heathrow Express.

In The Future Of The Class 387 And Class 379 Trains, I said this.

The Battery-Electric Class 379 Train

I rode this prototype train in 2015.

I think it is reasonable to assume, that as battery technology has improved in the seven years since I rode this train, that converting Class 379 trains to battery-electric operation would not be a challenging project.

Creating A Battery-Electric Class 387 Train

If the Class 387 train is as internally similar to the Class 379 train as it outwardly looks, I couldn’t believe that converting them to battery-electric operation would be that difficult.

I could see a lot of the Class 379 and Class 387 trains converted to 110 mph battery-electric trains.

Would Heathrow Express Completely Disappear?

If the Elizabeth Line trains are going between Heathrow Airport and Central London, at a frequency of 10 tph or one train every six minutes, I feel there may be scope for marketing and operational reasons to create a sub-fleet of the Class 345 trains.

The trains would be identical to the Elizabeth Line’s current fleet, except for livery, seating and some internal passenger features.

• Perhaps, they could be called the Heathrow Train boldly on the outside, so even the dimmest passenger didn’t get on a Reading train instead of a Heathrow one.
• All trains would have wi-fi and 4G connectivity. These features have been promised for the Class 345 trains.
• Some coaches would be fitted with luggage spaces for the outsize cases people carry.

I could envisage the Heathrow Trains terminating at a wide number of places in addition to Abbey Wood and Shenfield. Possibilities must include Beaulieu Park, Ebbsfleet, Gravesend, Northfleet and Southend Victoria

May 21, 2023 - Posted by AnonW | Computing, Transport/Travel | Battery-Electric Trains, Class 379 Train, Class 387 Train, Elizabeth Line, Great Western Railway, Heathrow Airport, Heathrow Express, ICI, Levelling Up, Mid-Cornwall Metro, Okehampton Parkway Station, Paddington Station, Project Management, Resources, Software, ULEZ