Enabling The UK To Become The Saudi Arabia Of Wind?
The title of this post, is the same as that of a paper from Imperial College.
The paper can be downloaded from this page of the Imperial College web site.
This is a paragraph from the Introduction of the paper.
In December 2020, the then Prime Minister outlined the government’s ten-point plan for a green industrial revolution, expressing an ambition “to turn the UK into the Saudi Arabia of wind power generation, enough wind power by 2030 to supply every single one of our homes with electricity”.
The reference to Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil producers for many decades, hints at the significant role the UK’s energy ambitions hoped to play in the global economy.
Boris Johnson was the UK Prime Minister at the time, so was his statement just his usual bluster or a simple deduction from the facts.
The paper I have indicated is a must-read and I do wonder if one of Boris’s advisors had read the paper before Boris’s speech. But as the paper appears to have been published in September 2023, that is not a valid scenario.
The paper though is full of important information.
The Intermittency Of Wind And Solar Power
The paper says this about the intermittency of wind and solar power.
One of the main issues is the intermittency of solar and wind electricity generation, which means it cannot be relied upon without some form of backup or sufficient storage.
Solar PV production varies strongly along both the day-night and seasonal cycles. While output is higher during the daytime (when demand is
higher than overnight), it is close to zero when it is needed most, during the times of peak electricity demand (winter evenings from 5-6 PM).At present, when wind output is low, the UK can fall back to fossil fuels to make up for the shortfall in electricity supply. Homes stay warm, and cars keep moving.
If all sectors were to run on variable renewables, either the country needs to curb energy usage during shortfalls (unlikely to be popular with consumers), accept continued use of fossil fuels across all sectors (incompatible with climate targets), or develop a large source of flexibility such as energy storage (likely to be prohibitively expensive at present).
The intermittency of wind and solar power means we have a difficult choice to make.
The Demand In Winter
The paper says this about the demand in winter.
There are issues around the high peaks in heating demand during winter, with all-electric heating very expensive to serve (as
the generators built to serve that load are only
needed for a few days a year).Converting all the UK’s vehicles to EVs would increase total electricity demand from 279 TWh to 395 TWh. Switching all homes across the country to heat pumps would increase demand by a further 30% to 506 TWh.
This implies that the full electrification of the heating and transport sectors would increase the annual power needs in the country by 81%.
This will require the expansion of the electricity system (transmission capacity, distribution grids, transformers,
substations, etc.), which would pose serious social, economic and technical challenges.Various paths, policies and technologies for the decarbonisation of heating, transport, and industrial emissions must be considered in order for the UK to meet its zero-emission targets.
It appears that electrification alone will not keep us warm, power our transport and keep our industry operating.
The Role Of Hydrogen
The paper says this about the role of hydrogen.
Electrifying all forms of transport might prove difficult (e.g., long-distance heavy goods) or nigh impossible (e.g., aviation) due to the high energy density requirements, which current batteries cannot meet.
Hydrogen has therefore been widely suggested as a low-carbon energy source for these sectors, benefiting from high energy density (by weight), ease of storage (relative to electricity) and its versatility to be used in many ways.
Hydrogen is also one of the few technologies capable of
providing very long-duration energy storage (e.g., moving energy between seasons), which is critical to supporting the decarbonisation of the whole energy system with high shares of renewables because it allows times of supply and demand mismatch to be managed over both short and long timescales.It is a clean alternative to fossil fuels as its use (e.g., combustion) does not emit any CO2.
Hydrogen appears to be ideal for difficult to decarbonise sectors and for storing energy for long durations.
The Problems With Hydrogen
The paper says this about the problems with hydrogen.
The growth of green hydrogen technology has been held back by the high cost, lack of existing infrastructure, and its lower efficiency
of conversion.Providing services with hydrogen requires two to three times more primary energy than direct use of electricity.
There is a lot of development to be done before hydrogen is as convenient and affordable as electricity and natural gas.
Offshore Wind
The paper says this about offshore wind.
Offshore wind is one of the fastest-growing forms of renewable energy, with the UK taking a strong lead on the global stage.
Deploying wind turbines offshore typically leads to a higher electricity output per turbine, as there are typically higher wind speeds and fewer obstacles to obstruct wind flow (such as trees and buildings).
The productivity of the UK’s offshore wind farms is nearly 50% higher than that of onshore wind farms.
Offshore wind generation also typically has higher social acceptability as it avoids land usage conflicts and has a lower visual impact.
To get the most out of this resource, very large structures (more than twice the height of Big Ben) must be connected to the ocean floor and operate in the harshest conditions for decades.
Offshore wind turbines are taller and have larger rotor diameters than onshore wind turbines, which produces a more consistent and higher output.
Offshore wind would appear to be more efficient and better value than onshore.
The Scale Of Offshore Wind
The paper says this about the scale of offshore wind.
The geographical distribution of offshore wind is heavily skewed towards Europe, which hosts over 80% of the total global offshore wind capacity.
This can be attributed to the good wind conditions and the shallow water depths of the North Sea.
The UK is ideally located to take advantage of offshore wind due to its extensive resource.
The UK could produce over 6000 TWh of electricity if the offshore wind resources in all the feasible area of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is exploited.
Note.
- 6000 TWh of electricity per annum would need 2740 GW of wind farms if the average capacity factor was a typical 25 %.
- At a price of 37.35 £/MWh, 6000 TWh would be worth $224.1 billion.
Typically, most domestic users seem to pay about 30 pence per KWh.
The Cost Of Offshore Wind
The paper says this about the cost of offshore wind.
The cost of UK offshore wind has fallen because of the reductions in capital expenditure (CapEx), operational expenditure (OpEx), and financing costs.
This has been supported by the global roll-out of bigger offshore wind turbines, hence, causing an increase in offshore wind energy capacity.
This increase in installed capacity has been fuelled by several low-carbon support schemes from the UK government.
The effect of these schemes can be seen in the UK 2017 Contracts for Difference (CfD) auctions where offshore wind reached strike prices as low as 57.50 £/MWh and an even lower strike price of 37.35 £/MWh in 2022.
Costs and prices appear to be going the right way.
The UK’s Offshore Wind Targets
The paper says this about the UK’s offshore wind targets.
The offshore wind capacity in the UK has grown over the past decade.
Currently, the UK has a total offshore wind capacity of 13.8GW, which is sufficient to power more than 10 million homes.
This represents a more than fourfold increase compared to the capacity installed in 2012.
The UK government has set ambitious targets for offshore wind development.
In 2019, the target was to install a total of 40 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, and this was later raised to 50 GW, with up to 5 GW of floating offshore wind.
This will play a pivotal role in decarbonising the UK’s power system by the government’s deadline of 2035.
As I write this, the UK’s total electricity production is 31.8 GW. So 50 GW of wind will go a good way to providing the UK with zero-carbon energy. But it will need a certain amount of reliable alternative power sources for when the wind isn’t blowing.
The UK’s Hydrogen Targets
The paper says this about the UK’s hydrogen targets.
The UK has a target of 10 GW of low-carbon hydrogen production to be deployed by 2030, as set out in the British Energy Security Strategy.
Within this target, there is an ambition for at least half of the 10 GW of production capacity to be met through green hydrogen production technologies (as opposed to hydrogen produced from steam methane reforming using carbon capture).
Modelling conducted by the Committee on Climate Change in its Sixth Carbon Budget estimated that demand for low-carbon hydrogen across the whole country could reach 161–376 TWh annually by 2050, comparable in scale to the total electricity demand.
We’re going to need a lot of electrolyser capacity.
Pairing Hydrogen And Offshore Wind
The paper says this about pairing hydrogen and offshore wind.
Green hydrogen holds strong potential in addressing the intermittent nature of renewable generation sources, particularly wind and solar energy, which naturally fluctuate due to weather conditions.
Offshore wind in particular is viewed as being a complementary technology to pair with green hydrogen production, due to three main factors: a) the high wind energy capacity factors offshore, b) the potential for large-scale deployment and c) hydrogen as a supporting technology for offshore wind energy integration.
It looks like a match made in the waters around the UK.
The Cost Of Green Hydrogen
The paper says this about the cost of green hydrogen.
The cost of green hydrogen is strongly influenced by the price of the electrolyser unit itself.
If the electrolyser is run more intensively over the course of the lifetime of the plant, a larger volume of hydrogen will be produced and so the cost of the electrolyser will be spread out more, decreasing the cost per unit of produced hydrogen.
If the variable renewable electricity source powering the electrolyser has a higher capacity factor, this will contribute towards a
lower cost of hydrogen produced.Offshore wind in the UK typically has a higher capacity factor than onshore wind energy (up to 20%), and is around five times higher than solar, so pairing
offshore wind with green hydrogen production is of interest.
It would appear that any improvements in wind turbine and electrolyser efficiency would be welcomed.
The Size Of Wind Farms
The paper says this about the size of wind farms.
Offshore wind farms can also be larger scale, due to increased availability of space and reduced restrictions on tip heights due to planning permissions.
The average offshore wind turbine in the UK had a capacity of 3.6 MW in 2022, compared to just 2.5-3 MW for onshore turbines.
As there are fewer competing uses for space, offshore wind can not only have larger turbines but the wind farms can comprise many more turbines.
Due to the specialist infrastructure requirements for hydrogen transport and storage, and the need for economies of scale to reduce the costs of
production, pairing large-scale offshore wind electricity generation with green hydrogen
production could hold significant benefits.
I am not surprised that economies of scale give benefits.
The Versatility Of Hydrogen
The paper says this about the versatility of hydrogen.
Hydrogen is a highly adaptable energy carrier with numerous potential applications and has been anticipated by some as playing a key role in the future energy system, especially when produced through electrolysis.
It could support the full decarbonisation of “hard to decarbonise” processes within the UK industrial sector, offering a solution for areas which may be difficult to electrify or are heavily reliant on fossil fuels for high-temperature heat.
When produced through electrolysis, it could be paired effectively as an energy storage technology with offshore wind, with the potential to store energy across seasons with little to no energy degradation and transport low-carbon energy internationally.
The UK – with its significant offshore wind energy resources and targets – could play a potentially leading role in producing green hydrogen to both help its pathway to net zero, and potentially create a valuable export industry.
In RWE Acquires 4.2-Gigawatt UK Offshore Wind Development Portfolio From Vattenfall, I postulated that RWE may have purchased Vattenfall’s 4.2 GW Norfolk Zone of windfarms to create a giant hydrogen production facility on the Norfolk coast. I said this.
Consider.
- Vattenfall’s Norfolk Zone is a 4.2 GW group of wind farms, which have all the requisite permissions and are shovel ready.
- Bacton Gas terminal has gas pipelines to Europe.
- Sizewell’s nuclear power stations will add security of supply.
- Extra wind farms could be added to the Norfolk Zone.
- Europe and especially Germany has a massive need for zero-carbon energy.
The only extra infrastructure needing to be built is the giant electrolyser.
I wouldn’t be surprised if RWE built a large electrolyser to supply Europe with hydrogen.
The big irony of this plan is that the BBL Pipeline between Bacton and the Netherlands was built, so that the UK could import Russian gas.
Could it in future be used to send the UK’s green hydrogen to Europe, so that some of that Russian gas can be replaced with a zero-carbon fuel?
Mathematical Modelling
There is a lot of graphs, maps and reasoning, which is used to detail how the authors obtained their conclusions.
Conclusion
This is the last paragraph of the paper.
Creating a hydrogen production industry is a transition story for UK’s oil and gas sector.
The UK is one of the few countries that could produce more hydrogen than it consumes in hydrocarbons today.
It is located in the centre of a vast resource, which premediates positioning itself at the centre of the European hydrogen supply chains.
Investing now to reduce costs and benefit from the generated value of exported hydrogen would make a reality out of the ambition to become the “Saudi Arabia of Wind”.
Boris may or may not have realised that what he said was possible.
But certainly make sure you read the paper from Imperial College.
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