The Anonymous Widower

UK ESO Unveils GBP 58 Billion Grid Investment Plan To Reach 86 GW of Offshore Wind By 2035

The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.

This is the sub-heading.

Great Britain’s electricity system operator (ESO) has proposed a GBP 58 billion (approximately EUR 68 billion) investment in the electricity grid. The proposal outlines a vision for incorporating an additional 21 GW of offshore wind into the grid by 2035, which would bring the country’s total offshore wind capacity to a potential 86 GW.

These three paragraphs add more details to what the investment in the grid means for offshore wind.

The ESO released on 19 March the first Beyond 2030 report. The plan sets up the necessary infrastructure to transfer power to and from future industries, as electricity demand is expected to rise by 64 per cent by 2035, according to the ESO.

The grid operator said that the plan connects a further 21 GW of offshore wind in development off the coast of Scotland to the grid in an efficient and coordinated way which would bring the country’s total offshore wind capacity to a potential 86 GW.

The proposals could assist the UK government in meeting the sixth Carbon Budget and allow for the connection of Crown Estate Scotland’s ScotWind leasing round.

These are my thoughts.

How Much Offshore Wind Is In The Pipeline?

This Wikipedia entry is a List Of Offshore Wind Farms In The United Kingdom.

It gives these figures for wind farms in various operational an development states.

• Operational – 14,703 MW
• Under Construction – 5,202 MW
• Pre-Construction – 6,522 MW
• Contracts for Difference – Round 3 – 12 MW
• Contracts for Difference – Round 4 – 1,428 MW
• Early Planning – England – 18,423 MW
• Early Planning – Wales – 700 MW
• Early Planning – Scotland – 30,326 MW

Note.

1. These add up to a total of 77,316 MW.
2. If all the wind farms in the Wikipedia entry are commissioned, the UK will be short of the 86,000 MW total by 8,664 MW.
3. Some wind farms like Ossian could be increased in size by a few GW, as I reported in Ossian Floating Wind Farm Could Have Capacity Of 3.6 GW.

It looks like only another 7,164 MW of offshore wind needs to be proposed to meet the required total.

This article on offshoreWIND.biz is entitled The Crown Estate Opens 4.5 GW Celtic Sea Floating Wind Seabed Leasing Round, will add another 4,500 MW to the total, which will raise the total to 81,816 MW.

The article also finishes with this paragraph.

Round 5 is expected to be the first phase of development in the Celtic Sea. In November 2023, the UK Government confirmed its intention to unlock space for up to a further 12 GW of capacity in the Celtic Sea.

A further 12 GW of capacity will take the total to 93,816 MW.

In Three Shetland ScotWind Projects Announced, I talked about three extra Scotwind wind farms, that were to be developed to the East of Shetland.

These will add 2.8 GW, bringing the total to 96,616 MW.

I don’t think the UK has a problem with installing 86 GW of offshore wind by 2035, so we must create the electricity network to support it.

The Electricity Network In 2024

I clipped this map from this article in The Telegraph, which is entitled Britain’s Energy System Will Not Hit Net Zero Until 2035, National Grid Tells Labour.

 

The dark blue lines are the 400 kV transmission lines.

• The one furthest East in East Anglia serves the Sizewell site, which hosts the Sizewell B nuclear power station and will be the home of Sizewell C nuclear power station, unless the Green or LibDem Parties are a member of a coalition government.
• Kent and Sussex seem to be encircled by 400 kV lines, with small spurs to the interconnectors to Europe.
• Two 400 kV lines appear to serve the South-West peninsular, with one going along the South Coast and the other further North. I suspect these two motorways for electricity explain, why the Morocco-UK Power Project terminates in Devon.
• London seems to have its own M25 for electricity.
• There also appears to be an East-West link to the North of London linking Sizewell in the East and Pembroke in the West. Both ends have large power stations.
• There also appear to be two 400 kV lines from Keadby by the Humber Estuary to North Wales with the pumped storage hydro power station at Dinorwig.
• Two more 400 kV lines link Yorkshire to the South of Scotland.
• A lonely Northern cable connects Edinburgh and the North of Scotland.

The red lines, like the one encircling central London are the 275 kV transmission lines.

• Think of these as the A roads of the electricity network.
• They encircle London often deep underground or under canal towpaths.
• They reinforce the electricity network in South Wales.
• Liverpool appears to have its own local network.
• They also seem to provide most of the capacity North of and between Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Newer cables are starting to appear on this map.

There are two light blue cables and these are HVDC cables that run underwater.

• The 1.2 GW Caithness – Moray Link does what it says in the name and it connects the far North of Scotland direct towards Aberdeen.
• The much larger 2.25 GW Western HVDC Link connects Hunterston near Glasgow to Flintshire Bridge near Liverpool. Note how it passes to the West of the Isle of Man.

Not shown on the map are the smaller 500 MW Moyle Interconnector and the recently-opened 600 MW Shetland HVDC Connection.

The Electricity Network In 2050

This second map shows how the network will look in 2050.

Note.

1. The colours are the same, as the previous map.
2. Although, I do think there are some errors in which have been used.
3. There are a lot more cables.

There are several more light blue cables and these are HVDC cables that run underwater.

• Shetland is now linked to the North of Scotland by the Shetland HVDC Connection.
• There appears to be a cluster of HVDC interconnectors at Caithness HVDC switching station, near Wick, including a new one to Orkney, to go with the others to Moray and Shetland.
• The 2 GW Scotland England Green Link 1 will run from Torness in Southeast Scotland to Hawthorn Pit substation in Northeast England.
• The 2 GW Eastern Green Link 2 will run from Sandford Bay, at Peterhead in Scotland, to the Drax Power Station in Yorkshire, England.
• There also appear to be two or possibly three other offshore cables linking the East Coast of Scotland with the East Coast of England.
• If the Eastern cables are all 2 GW, that means there is a trunk route for at least 8 GW between Scotland’s wind farms in the North-East and Eastern England, which has the high capacity wind farms of Dogger Bank, Hornsea and around the Lincolnshire and East Angliam coasts.
• Turning to the Western side of Scotland, there appears to be a HVDC connection between the Scottish mainland and the Outer Hebrides.
• South-West of Glasgow, the Western HVDC Link appears to have been duplicated, with a second branch connecting Anglesey and North-West Wales to Scotland.
• The Moyle Interconnector must be in there somewhere.
• Finally, in the South a link is shown between Sizewell and Kent. It’s shown as 400 kV link but surely it would be a HVDC underwater cable.

There are also seven stubs reaching out into the sea, which are probably the power cables to the wind farms.

• The red one leading from South Wales could connect the wind farms of the Celtic Sea.
• The blue link North of Northern Ireland could link the MachairWind wind farm to the grid.
• The other two red links on the West Coast of Scotland could link to other ScotWind wind farms.
• The red link to the North of East Anglia could link RWE’s Norfolk wind farms to the grid.
• The other stubs in the East could either connect wind farms to the grid or be multi-purpose interconnectors linking to Germany and the Netherlands.

It looks to me, that National Grid ESO will be taking tight control of the grid and the connected wind farms, as an integrated entity.

As a Graduate Control Engineer, I can’t disagree with that philosophy.

Hydrogen Production

In How Germany Is Dominating Hydrogen Market, I talked about how Germany’s plans to use a lot of hydrogen, will create a large world-wide demand, that the UK because of geography and large amounts of renewable energy is in an ideal place to fulfil.

I can see several large electrolysers being built around the UK coastline and I would expect that National Grid ESO have made provision to ensure that the electrolysers have enough electricity.

Would I Do Anything Different?

Consider.

• If it is built the Morocco-UK Power Project will terminates in Devon.
• There could be more wind farms in the Celtic Sea.
• It is likely, that the wind farms in the Celtic Sea will connect to both Pembroke and Devon.
• Kent has interconnectors to the Continent.

Would a Southern HVDC link along the South Coast between Devon and Kent be a good idea?

Conclusion

Looking at the proposed list of wind farms, a total in excess of 96 GW could be possible, which is ten GW more than needed.

The network not only serves the UK in a comprehensive manner, but also tees up electricity for export to Europe.

March 20, 2024 - Posted by AnonW | Energy | Celtic Sea, Control Engineering, Crown Estate Scotland, Dinorwig Power Station (Electric Mountain), Eastern Green Link 2, Electricity System Operator (ESO), Germany, Green Party, Interconnectors, Keadby Power Stations, LibDem Party, MachairWind Wind Farm, Morocco-UK Power Project, Multi-Purpose Interconnector, National Grid, National Grid ESO, Offshore Wind Power, Ossian Wind Farm, Pembroke Power Station, Scotland to England Green Link 1, ScotWind Leasing, Sizewell, Sizewell B Nuclear Power Station, Sizewell C Nuclear Power Station, The Netherlands, Wind Power