While Cameron Dithers About London, Manchester Decides!
I picked up two reports on airports this week.
This report on the BBC is entitled Heathrow airport delay gutless, says business group and talks about a lot of the fallout from David Cameron’s decision not to decide on a new runway for the South-East.
In contrast, you have this report in the Manchester Evening News entitled New images shows possible high-tech future of Manchester Airport’s check-in after ‘Super Terminal’ transformation, which describes the airports expansion plans.
Expanding Heathrow seems to generate controversy in super-tanker loads, whereas Manchester doesn’t sem to attract anything like the same level, even when you take the different sizes into account.
Look at this Google Map of Heathrow.
Heathrow Airport
Compare it with this one of Manchester Airport.
Manchester Airport
I don’t know for sure, but it would appear from these maps and larger ones, that Heathrow has used up much more of the available space around the runways, whereas Manchester hasn’t!
When Heathrow wanted to build Terminal 5, they had to move a sewage works, and another terminal would be difficult on the same site. Manchester has some space left.
So any expansion at Heathrow needs to expand the airport site, which is where a lot of the opposition comes from.
In my view the only way to expand Heathrow is to make better use of the current runways and the terminals. But that can only go on for so long!
And would the locals object to more landings and take-offs? You bet they would!
David Cameron is no fool and he knows that with the opposition of Boris Johnson and nearly all the candidates for the London Mayor against Heathrow, that it will never gain a third runway.
I hate to look backwards but the Roskill Commission of the 1960s and their eventual decision by a roundabout route was for an airport on Maplin Sands to the East of Southend.
But Harold Wilson’s government cancelled this airport, just as they did the Picc-Vic Tunnel in Manchester and improvement of the rail lines across the Pennines.
In my view as air traffic increases, Heathrow needs to expand to just survive, as there is competition all around.
- Schipol, Paris Charles de Gaulle and even Manchester competing for the interchange traffic.
- Trains to the Continent
- Birmingham, Gatwick, Luton, Southend, Stansted and others nibbling Heathrow’s markets.
- HS2
- Passengers are increasingly savvy and go from any convenient airport, using an acceptable airline at the right time and price.
- Internet technology will guide people to the best and cheapest way to travel from say Cambridge to Boston. An expensive Heathrow could be its own worst enemy.
- Other airports will offer better car-friendly solutions.
So as it can’t expand, due to the politicians and local residents, Heathrow must accept that it can’t and it must prepare itself for downgrade to just an airport for London and those living locally.
It also means, the South East must eventually find another site for a new airport to replace Heathrow.
The only place is the Thames Estuary!
So why didn’t the Davies Airport Commission recommend the Boris Island?
Howard Davies is a man of the City Establishment, who are very conservative with a small c and love the convenience, which Crossrail will make better, of Heathrow. How many submissions were against the Boris Island because it would mean too much change in their business?
But a properly designed Thames Hub Airport, could also incorporate the new Thames Barrier and Lower Thames Crossing that London needs.
To many of London’s residents and a lot of their politicians, it is a no-brainer! But for the City, only an expanded Heathrow will do!
So how will Manchester Airport affect London’s Airport mess in the future.
I believe that Manchester Airport will start to dominate air transport in the North of England and Scotland, just as Heathrow used to dominate the South.
- It has space for new terminals and aircraft and car parking.
- A rail network is developing to bring passengers to the airport from all over the North and Scotland.
- HS2 and probably HS3 are coming to the Airport.
- When it needs to expand it decides to and does!
It could also be combined with Liverpool Airport using a very high speed train, if it needed more runway capacity. It’s just forty-four kilometres as a Maglev would fly at 200 kilometres per hour, up the Mersey. Manchester and Liverpool airports could work together, much better than Heathrow can work with either Gatwick, Luton or Stansted.
So will an expanded Manchester Airport take a big bite out of Heathrow’s traffic? You bet it will. Especially, if Heathrow continues to not expand.
I think we should start to plan a Thames Estuary Airport now, even if we don’t built it for twenty years.. If we don’t, then when we need to start building, we’ll take another fifty years to make a decision.
Or we could always do what we’re doing now and let market forces, various interests and passenger choice decide our airports policy?
And as ever, engineers and architects, will improve aircraft and airports, so that we find them acceptable.
The airports problem won’t be solved until perhaps in about 2060, when the Dutch get fed up with Schipol and we join with them and the Belgians to create an airport perhaps slightly east of the Thames Estuary connected to various countries by high speed rail lines. It could be called Canute International!
The only certainty, is that I won’t be here to see it built!
Tram-Trains To East Midlands Airport
I have a Google Alert looking for tram-trains and it found this article on the Nottingham Post entitled Could tram-trains link Nottingham to East Midlands Airport?
It’s a thought!
The article talks about a proposal to create a link between East Midlands Airport and the Midland Main Line, that would allow tram-trains to connect the airport to cities like Nottingham, Derby and Leicester and the proposed HS2 station at Toton.
This is a Google Map of the area between the Airport and the Midland Main Line.
East Midlands Airport, the M1 And The Midland Main Line
East Midlands Parkway station is at the top right of the map.
I think that properly designed this idea could have legs.
A few points.
- Some doubt the South East will ever get a new runway, so improving connections to East Midlands Airport would surely mean more passengers flew from their local airport, rather than a congested Heathrow.
- It would improve links between the major cities and population centres of the East Midlands and they probably need an improved turn-up-and-go four trains per hour service between each.
- There are a number of intermediate stations to the various destinations, which probably need better connections.
- The tram-line would also cross the M1. So would a pick-up/drop-off tram stop ease travel in the area?
- Once the tram-train technology is proven and approved and the Midland Main Line is electrified, I doubt that creating the link would be a difficult planning or engineering project.
I will be very surprised if at some point in the future, some form of light or heavy rail line doesn’t reach East Midlands Airport.
But then I think tram-trains would be best.
Gatwick Makes A Pitch For The Third Runway
Canary Wharf tube station is all decked out in adverts for expanding Gatwick.
It’s certainly a tough fight between the two airports about which one gets developed.
On the ninth of October, I had a letter published in The Times, under the title, Plane or Train?
Sir, The closure of Richard Branson’s Little Red airline (News, Oct 7) comes at a time when people in their millions are rediscovering trains, raising a question over the attraction and viability of short-haul air services. Together with the introduction of aircraft that can carry up to a third more passengers, this leads me to wonder whether we need new runway capacity.
Effectively, it is a shorter reworking of some of the arguments in Hot Air Over London’s Airports.
To also stoke up the fire, Heathrow Hub were also advertising heavily in the papers at the weekend.
As I said in Hot Air Over London’s Airports, I quite like this proposal. This liking gets bigger every time I read about it.
One thing their reports and all the other proposals don’t talk about for obvious reasons, is the unpredictability of some of the world’s worst air accidents. Just read up on the circumstances that led to the Tenerife Airport Disaster.
For this and other reasons, I would leave the decisions to the professionals. And they will probably say that some proposals have a bigger safety margin than others!
But I still feel my last statement in the Hot Air post might be correct.
But I have this sneaking suspicion that no new runways will be built or extended and in twenty years time or so, we’ll wonder what all the fuss was about.
Passengers will just choose their airports with more care and airports will be competing with us with better and better facilities and more point-to-point flights.
But then some politician might want to add his name to a new London airport.
Lib Dems Dither Over More Runways In The South East
According to a report on the BBC web site the Lib Dems are thinking of making a U-turn over their aviation policy of no more runways in the South East. This is the first bit of the article.
The Liberal Democrats are heading for a possible U-turn over their opposition to airport expansion.
The party has been committed to a blanket ban on the construction of any new runways in south-east England.
But two Lib Dem MPs at the party’s conference in Glasgow have tabled an amendment that would allow Gatwick Airport to be exempted.
I have been feeling that the only policy on airports in the South East that will work in the short-term, is to wait until we’ve seen the Crossrail/Thameslink effect work its way through the system. This will make Central London an enormous terminal to the current three runways at Heathrow and Gatwick. No-one can predict how the passengers will react, but coupled with the growth of Manchester Airport, I suspect that the transfer traffic at both Heathrow and Gatwick airports will decrease as a proportion of traffic over the next few years.
As I write this note it has just been announced on the BBC that Virgin is closing their Little Red airline.
Virgin Atlantic has said it will stop running Little Red, its UK flight network launched in 2013, next year.
The flights between London Heathrow and Manchester will stop in March, while those between Heathrow and Edinburgh and Aberdeen will end in September.
Obviously, it hasn’t been bringing in the transfer passengers for Virgin’s long haul flights.
We should be pushing on with developments that will take the pressure of runways in the South East.
1. Eurostar has just announced that they are making Geneva services easier from St. Pancras. The trains could go to direct to places like Amsterdam, Cologne, Geneva and Lyon from London now, if only governments could sort out the political problems, like immigration and security.
As the European high-speed network grows, we could be seeing a large shift from plane to train, which will mean a big reduction in short-haul services from the South East airports.
The French are even talking about building a new line to make London to Paris under two hours. If they could make onward connections in Paris easier, it would increase the number of passengers going by train from London. Better and more welcoming French stations in the style of St. Pancras and Kings Cross would help too!
2. Over the next few years we will see a tremendous improvement in the rail services between Scotland and the South East. Both the East and West Coast Main Lines are being upgraded to remove bottlenecks and allow running at 225 kph, allowing Edinburgh and Glasgow to be within the magic four hours from London. So will most passengers between the South East and Central Scotland, go by train at the end of this decade?
I think they will and we must do those improvements that make England Scotland rail services even better.
3. An interesting knock-on from the previous point, is that even today Glasgow to Heathrow Airport by train, takes well over two hours longer than going to Manchester Airport. The train services have increased in recent months, but Scots are increasingly seeing Manchester as their long-haul airport of choice.
We should be improving the rail links across the North of England as fast as we can, so that if you live North of the line between the Mersey and the Humber, you use Manchester as your long-haul airport.
All this can only make Manchester Airport a bigger rival to the airports in the South East. British Airways might not like it, but they should fly where the passengers are, not where they say they should be!
4. HS2 from London to Birmingham, will make is easier to go to Birmingham Airport from the South East. This extract is from Wikipedia.
According to Birmingham Airport‘s chief executive Paul Kehoe, HS2 is a key element in increasing the number of flights using the airport, and patronage by inhabitants of London and the South-East, as HS2 will reduce travelling times to Birmingham Airport from London to under 40 minutes.
That makes Birmingham Airport closer to Central London than Stansted, so will we see more flights out of London Birmingham International.
5. Trains though, have some very big advantages advantages over flying.
- They generally go from city centre to city centre, where major cities are concerned.
- There is generally, no requirement to get to the station and be subjected to endless security checks, except possibly in Spain. It’s certainly turn up at the barrier with a valid ticket, which has often been purchased just a few minutes before, sit in your seat and go. When was air travel last like that?
- The UK is also showing the way with creating stations, which are very welcoming with decent shops, bars, cafes and restaurants. St. Pancras must rate with the best airports for what it provides the customer.
- But on the trains, we are seeing more and better services, with an improvement in on-board services like wi-fi and catering.
6. Virtually, the only advantage left to flying by air, is that you can drive to the airport and leave your car in the long-term car-park.
For many though, this is decreasingly becoming another facet in the old adage – Time to spare, go by air!
7. Those wanting a new runway in the South East are discounting ingenuity and innovation.
- Ryanair have said that they will be starting low-cost transatlantic services. Knowing them, they won’t be using an expensive airport in the South East.
- Icelandair have been very successful at getting passengers to split their transatlantic flight. So will we see the same happening in London? Perhaps fly from America to London, where you check out the city and then onward by train or short-haul flight to Europe. This will be more relaxing and London will benefit.
- Airliners will get bigger and quieter, so the amount of runway space we’ll need will be less, but the number of passengers through each airport will rise. The latest Boeing 737s to be delivered in 2017 will carry 220 passengers, as opposed to about 160 today. So if all airliners have that sort of increase in capacity, that is almost equivalent to an extra runway for Heathrow and Gatwick.
So perhaps we’ll get the extra capacity without building it?
But in the end are the passengers having the final say and not flying in the same ways they have for years?
I think that any political party that backs another runway in the South East wants its credentials examined.
Is Virgin Atlantic Closing Little Red?
The Sunday Times is leading the Business section, with an article that is saying that Virgin Atlantic is closing Little Red.
I always thought it was an ambitious plan, especially as the airline doesn’t go to Glasgow. This might seem a mistake, but remember Virgin Trains go to Scotland’s biggest city, where probably most London-bound travellers live.
Incidentally, I have only heard of one person, who has used the airline to get to Scotland and they live near Heathrow.
But after my experience with flying easyJet to Edinburgh, where it took as long as the train, due to security delays, I just wonder if flying to Scotland now, is a second class option to many travellers. As an example, one of my Edinburgh friends, who frequently travels down to London, always seems to use the train.
So you have to have a good reason to fly, such as your company is paying and you get the reward points.
Security delays are obviously a problem at some airports and these could get worse, unless terrorism worries actually reduce our desire for air travel substantially.
But two other factors probably have more effect; Manchester Airport and the trains.
Traffic at Manchester Airport has risen by nearly twenty percent in the last few years and this has been substantially helped by better rail connectivity across the North and to Glasgow.
So why would a Glaswegian spend more money to fly to Heathrow, when he or she can do the total journey quicker, by taking a convenient brand-new First TransPennine train to Manchester Airport and getting his flight from there?
But the trains are so much better at journeys a couple of stops short of a full London to Scotland journey. And how many Scots who live in the Central belt want to go to places other than London like Birmingham, Peterborough or Milton Keynes?
The trains are getting better each year and there seems to be no sign of the pace of the improvement slowing. Station upgrades at Edinburgh, Glasgow, Newcastle, Peterborough and Birmingham will be completed and extra paths for more trains will be available, as alternative routes for freight trains become available. The real game-changer will happen at the end of this decade, when in-cab signalling becomes available, allowing the trains to increase maximum speeds from 125 mph to 140 mph.
Presently the fastest London Glasgow trains take four and a half hours, but the improvements could deliver a time around four hours.
As Virgin obviously have all the figures for both train and plane to Scotland, if they are closing Little Red, I suspect it was somewhat of a no-brainer.
Do We Really Need A New London Airport?
The Guardian is running a report this morning, about the resignation of the Mayor of Berlin. This is the first paragraph.
Klaus Wowereit, the openly gay mayor who turned Berlin into a capital of cool, announces intention amid delays to new airport
If you read the Wikipedia entry about the new Berlin-Brandenburg airport, you’ll see a large number of problems.
It looks like to me, that Berlin has bitten off more than it can chew with this airport.
So would it be the same if London decided to build an airport in the Thames Estuary? Or anywhere else for that matter?
I think that we’re in some ways trying to make a decision about new airport capacity in the South-East, before all the things we’re doing now have had time to settle down.
The aviation industry obviously wants more airport capacity, as it will make the aerospace, airline and airport companies larger. And Directors, Senior Managers and Shareholders would like that, as it would enrich them. Just as British Airways has merged with Iberia, will other mergers happen, that will effect our decision on airport capacity. The shape of the airline industry will be driven by the desire to get bigger and also American companies wanting to be more tax efficient.
The airlines too, will be bringing in lots of new aircraft. If we take the example of replacing say an A330/A340 with an A380, this will probably increase the passengers going through an airport for the same number of aircraft movements. Even small airliners like the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 are squeezing in a few more passengers every couple of years or so.
So in the future we may need several more terminals. But perhaps only one extra runway! If that!
We also don’t know what the air passenger market will be. If I read the travel pages of serious newspapers, you find that the self loading cargo is restless and complains about everything from drop-off and parking charges to security delays. Even Ryanair is introducing a Business Class. Things are changing and in some ways, I think I’m typical of the new breed of passenger. I go to and from the airport by train, I only carry hand baggage and if it is available, I can afford to travel Business Class. Incidentally, I’ve had five or six outward flights from the UK this year and only one inward.
In some ways the most interesting flight I had was to Iceland, for my holiday. Many of the travellers I met, were going between North America and Europe and were having a holiday and flight break on the island. I never liked long flights and would often go to Houston or California, by changing planes at Boston.
So I think we’re going to see passengers demanding flexibility in how they book flights and they’ll adjust their schedules to make the most of the awful experience of sitting in an aluminium tube for several hours.
With the growth of low cost airlines, have we in the UK changed our pattern of holidays and swapped long haul holidays for several short-haul ones.
I believe that every flight that can be avoided should be. After flights this year, I think my days of travelling steerage are over.
All the vested commercial interests also ignore the herds of wildebeest and zebra in the room. Trains in the UK will shape our airports policy more than anybody predicts.
Manchester is now the UK’s third busiest airport. With the Northern Hub rail developments and the expansion of the Metrolink tram, the airport is getting much better connectivity. Already, electrification in the area, has allowed new electric trains to connect the airport directly to Glasgow and Edinburgh.
Heathrow gets Crossrail and Gatwick gets an updated Thameslink in 2018/2019, which coincidentally is the date when the Northern Hub developments will be substantially complete.
If you look at the top ten airports by passengers, only Glasgow and Bristol don’t have a rail link, although Glasgow may be getting one. But then Glasgow’s trains need a good sorting out, as I discussed here.
I think by the end of this decade, that a much higher percentage of passengers will go to their departure airport by public transport, mainly because of more frequent and passenger friendly tram and rail links. Although the way airports see motorists as cash cows will help.
And then there’s the elephant in the room of the Channel Tunnel Rail Link. By now, London should have been linked to at least Amsterdam and Cologne, in addition to the current destinations. I wonder sometimes if there is lack of political will in the various governments to get more services through the tunnel. Or is our policy determined more by the British government discouraging immigrants than providing a proper rail service?
All of these factors must be allowed to settle before we decide if we need any more airports or runways in the South East.
Plastic Belt Buckles
I object to taking my belt off in airport security, as because of my gammy left hand, I need a mirror to get it back in again.
At Gatwick, I said could I not and said why, but the guy said you’ll have to take it off, if it beeps in the machine.
It didn’t beep and I kept it on.
In the 1970s I worked for ICI Plastics and there were plastics then, that were strong enough to make belt buckles, that wouldn’t be dangerous or set off medal detectors.
So why don’t we have them now?
If nothing it would speed up security!
Will Farringdon Station Become A Destination In Itself?
Until Crossrail is opened, I don’t think we can know the effect that it will have on London’s transport systems. I put a few of my thoughts in this post about London’s airports, but at the time I hadn’t read read Crossrail’s description of the new Farringdon station on its web site. Here’s a key paragraph.
Situated at the intersection of a new east-west and north-south axis, it will be possible to directly connect with three of London’s five airports (with single interchange to the other two), providing a highly desirable railway connection between Heathrow and Gatwick. We believe this interchange will become so important to London that Farringdon will re-emerge as a destination in itself.
I couldn’t agree more.
There will need to be a new Airports Commission, as Crossrail will be the London’s biggest gamechanger since the Underground.
Hot Air Over London’s Airports
Sir Howard Davies and his Airports Commission has reported about what it feels are ideas to expand London’s airports.
What he is proposing ignores a few facts.
I don’t think that any extra runway at Heathrow is possible, as the people who live in West London, would not vote for any MP, who supports it and therefore in their view make their lives worse. This of course ignores the fact that most people in the area, moved there after Heathrow was opened and they have had plenty of time to move away.In fact, they’re probably some of the most opinionated and selfish Nimbys in the country.
The major airlines, such as British Airways and Virgin want Heathrow to be expanded as this is much more convenient and probably more profitable for them. After all, say if Gatwick were to be expanded, then they would have to have two operations in different places.
Everything, I’ve read about the report, makes little mention of technology that will become available in the next few years.
Aircraft will certainly get more efficient and hopefully quieter, which should ease disturbance.
But some of the bugger changes will occur in how the aircraft are controlled, so they will be able to fly paths, that are much more precise and therefore become less noticeable to those on the ground. Such things as stacks of aircraft over London waiting to land at Heathrow will disappear.
The Commission does state that patterns of air travel will change because of low cost airlines and more point-to-point flying.
And this brings me to the last fact that he ignored.
Generally, it’s passengers who choose which flights they use. And the methods they choose are sometimes bizarre to say the least.
I choose my flights very much on the departure time of the flight and the availability of gluten-free food at the terminal.
Others may only fly with an airline on their favourite loyalty program.
So one factor that will change our behaviour and ease pressure on busy airports, is convenient alternatives. We already get that. Scots who want to fly to say the States, often travel to Manchester Airport, as the flights are cheaper, than at Glasgow or Edinburgh. This loads the trains from Glasgow to Manchester Airport so much, that extra trains are being purchased for the route. Other Scots, who may need to fly to say London to get an onward flight, often take a quick hop to Schipol instead. The big airlines at Heathrow, want this stopped and hence they are in favour of an expansion there.
So one thing that will take the pressure of the airports in London is better facilities and more flights at other airports. We probably need to open up regional airports more to foreign carriers, but then the big boys like their monopolies.
I can never understand why there isn’t a regular service from Stansted to the New York area. Airlines have tried but all seem to fail. Is the marketing of the big airlines and Heathrow to blame?
Crossrail and Thameslink will be game changers in how passengers choose to use the London airports. Millions of people will now be better connected to either one or both of the airports, so if the flights are available at the convenient one, they’ll use them.
Personally, I used to hate Gatwick, as this post from 2011 indicates. But after a change of ownership and better train links from East London, I quite like the place. Gatwick will get better, as the South Terminal gets rebuilt and restaurants are improved. Stansted is now rather a dump and you would only fly from there for cheap flights or unusual destinations.
So even the most stubborn of individuals can be made to change their minds!
Of the options the Airports Commission lays out, only two are viable.
An airport in the Thames Estuary will never be built, as it is just too costly and new technology and the other airports in the South East will expand enough to take the increase of demand.
A new runway at Heathrow will never be built, as the Nimbys and politics will stop that happening.
So we are left with a new runway at Gatwick. I may not agree with how it is built, but the big factor is that the locals are not as opposed to the idea as they are at Heathrow.
But the idea I like is the extending of the northern runway at Heathrow. It was an innovative idea thought up by a pilot and put forward by Arup, who are not noted for bad ideas.
Although it would require a lot of thought over how it would be operated, It has the great advantage that it could probably be built with not too much disruption to either operations at the airport or the traffic on the M25. You could start by building a tunnel parallel to and west of the western section of the M25, which would be opened before you actually started work on the airport. Remember that with Crossrail and other tunnels, we’re the world’s best tunnel builders.
I’ve looked at a detailed map of the area and if the problems of air traffic and organisation of the aircraft can be solved, I think that much of the noise intrusion could probably be contained within the current airport boundary.
But I have this sneaking suspicion that no new runways will be built or extended and in twenty years time or so, we’ll wonder what all the fuss was about.
Passengers will just choose their airports with more care and airports will be competing with us with better and better facilities and more point-to-point flights.
The Anonymous Widower 