What Will Boris Do About The Proposed Third Runway At Heathrow?
I have tackled this before in October 2016 in a post called Changing Sides.
This was how I started that post.
There is an interesting article in The Sunday Times today, entitled Boris Retreats In Fight Against Third Runway.
Boris is apparently saying he won’t oppose a third runway at Heathrow, so if anything he’s being consistent in changing horses, just as he did with Michael Gove.
But perhaps more surprisingly, Willie Walsh, the Chief Executive of IAG, who own BA, is quoted as calling Heathrow a fantasy project, which has been gold-plated and inflated by the owners to maximise their returns, at the expense of the airlines.
The paper also says that Gatwick will build a new runway anyway.
Remember, it was written before Theresa May’s government decided to allow Heathrow’s Third Runway.
Since the decision to allow Heathrow to build a Third Runway was made nearly three years ago in October 2016, there have been a lot of changes.
Notably, Boris has gone from Foreign Secretary and an MP in a Heathrow Expansion-opposing constituency to Prime Minister.
As Prime Minister he is supposed to look at the bigger picture.
Unless he’s totally stupid he must have noted the following.
Brexit Has Changed From A Simple Quick Exit Into A Slow And Very Tortuous Process
I would expect an opinion poll would show that the UK population thinks that sorting out Brexit is a much more important problem, than the decision on a new runway in the South East of England.
So will Boris put Heathrow’s Third Runway on the back burner, given the following factors
Gatwick Will Build A Second Runway Anyway
In the Wikipedia entry for Gatwick Airport, there is a section entitled Expansion Proposals, where this is the first paragraph.
Gatwick has been included in a number of reviews of airport capacity in southeastern England. Expansion options have included a third terminal and a second runway, although a 40-year agreement not to build a second runway was made in 1979 with West Sussex County Council. Expanded operations would allow Gatwick to handle more passengers than Heathrow does today, with a new terminal between two wide-spaced runways. This would complement or replace the South Terminal, depending on expected future traffic.
My project management knowledge tells me, that Gatwick could add a second runway and upgrade the terminals in a shorter time, than Heathrow can build a third runway.
But more importantly, Gatwick Airport could build the extra runway and terminal without disruption to airport passengers, aircraft and road traffic on the nearby M23.
Boris’s only problem with Gatwick expansion, is the amount of post he’ll get from Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells.
Disruption Must Be Avoided
Recent timetabling and construction fiascoes on Thameslink and Northern Rail should have sent a message to politicians, that large infrastructure projects must be created without disrupting train or air passengers and road traffic.
Can Heathrow Be Built Without Disrupting Traffic On The M25?
It is interesting to look back at the basic facts at the construction of Heathrow Terminal 5.
- A public enquiry into the project lasted 525 days.
- The terminal sits on a 260 hectare site.
- Construction started in 2002.
- The terminal opened in 2008.
- Construction finisged in 2011.
- The terminal cost £4.2billion.
The construction of Terminal 5, also needed the M25 to be widened and linked to the terminal.
This Google Map shows Heathrow Terminal 5 and its relationship to Heathrow’s current two runways and the M25.
I remember the construction of Terminal 5 well, if only because, I was stuck in or moving slowly along that section of the M25 so many times.
As this immense construction project, is probably in living memory of much of the population of West London, how will they react to the thought of all the disruption, that building the third runway will cause.
Would Uxbridge, throw Boris out, if he approved the building of a third runway at Heathrow?
Heathrow Is A Pollution Blackspot
Various factors mean, that the surroundings of Heathrow are a pollution blackspot, mainly caused by the large number of diesel vehicles on the M4 and M25 motorways and others bringing passengers and goods to the airport.
I believe that any Planning Permission for the third runway, will require Heathrow to do something about the pollution. This could be easier than anybody thinks, as more of us will be using electric vehicles by the time the runway opens.
Heathrow are already proposing their ULEZ or Ulta Low Emission Zone.
Heathrow Rail Access Will Improve
Crossrail will eventually serve Heathrow in a year or so and this will improve rail access to the Airport significantly.
Other rail links are also in prospect.
- The Western Rail Approach to Heathrow could be open by 2024.
- Heathrow Southern Railway could be built.
- The West London Orbital could be built.
The first two would be privately financed.
This better rail access may reduce the traffic and pollution around the airport, but it will make it easier, for passengers to use the airport and traffic will grow.
High Speed Rail
Increasingly, Heathrow and the other London airports, will come under competition from High Speed Rail.
Eurostar has upwards of seventy percent of the London-Paris and London-Brussels passenger markets.
I have travelled a few times from London to Amsterdam on Eurostar and feel that four hours is my limit for comfortable train travel.
I estimate the following journeys would be possible on Eurostar.
- London and Cologne via Brussels in four hours
- London and Bordeaux via Paris in four and a half hours.
- London and Frankfurt in Five hours.
Another competitor to air services out of London will be London and Edinburgh services on the East Coast Main Line, which are being updated with new faster trains and journey times under four hours.
Air Cargo And Heathrow
I looked up air cargo in Wikipedia and these points are there.
- Fifty-percent of all air frieght is belly-cargo on airlines.
- An industry expert estimates that 15-20 tonnes of air cargo is worth 30-40 economy passenger seats, when both are on passenger planes.
- In 2017, the IATA observed a 9% rise in freight tonne kilometres
- Boeing is doubling its 767F production since 2016 to three per month in 2020.
Heathrow dominates the air cargo traffic into and out of the UK and last year it handled 1,788,815 tonnes of cargo, which was a 5.3% increase in tonnage on 2017.
However, it does appear that the second largest cargo airport in the UK; East Midlands, handled about the same amount of freight as Heathrow in April 2018.
There is also the East Midlands Gateway close to that airport, which will be a massive logistics park., with a rail connection.
Perhaps the pressures of the congested Heathrow, with some nudging from the Government could remove the cargo aircraft from the airport to more suitable airports like East Midlands and Doncaster Sheffield.
Manchester Airport Is The Most Important Airport North Of London
Manchester Airport is the busiest Airport after Heathrow and Gatwick and over the next few years it will catch up to a certain extent.
In Changes Signalled For HS2 Route In North, I said this about Manchester Airport’s rail connectivity if High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail are combined across the Pennines.
If High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail are developed as laid out in the Transport for the North report, the following cities will be connected to Manchester Airport.
- Birmingham – High Speed Two
- Blackpool – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
- Bradford – High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
- Carlisle – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
- Edinburgh – Northern Powerhouse Rail/East Coast Main Line
- Glasgow – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
- Hull – High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
- Leeds – High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
- London – High Speed Two
- Newcastle -High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
- Preston – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
- Sheffield – Northern Powerhouse Rail
- Sunderland – Northern Powerhouse Rail
- York – High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
Manchester Airport will probably become the most important station in the North with High Speed connections to a large part of England and Scotland.
Heathrow and Gatwick will find they have a very big and well-connected Northern competitor.
Extinction Rebellion And Other Environmental Protesters
Most of the environmental protesters like Extinction Rebellion seem to have focused their attention on Heathrow, where airports are concerned.
They will fight tooth and nail to stop Heathrow’s third runway.
Will Heathrow Get The Planning Permission They Need?
I think that this is the sort of planning decision, that will end up with the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Theresa Villiers.
Her Wikipedia entry says this.
Villiers favours construction of a high-speed rail link from London to Birmingham and Manchester, arguing that flyers could use capacity at airports such as Birmingham International and Manchester International Airport.
She is also quoted as being against a third runway at Heathrow, when she was a member of Davisd Cameron’s cabinet.
Grant Schapps, who is the current Secretary of State for Transport, could be more supportive to Heathrow’s application.
The Mood Of The UK About The Environment
The view of the average UK voter on the environment has changed markedly in the last few years, driven by documentaries, events and politics from around the world.
Boris’s father; Stanley Johnson has written books on the environment and received the Greenpeace Award for Outstanding Services to the Environment, so this could fit with his opposition to a third runway at Heathrow, when he was Mayor of London.
Do Heathrow Airport Have A Plan B?
In Heathrow Plans Runway Over M25 In 30-Year Expansion, I outlined how I thought the runway would be built.
The Times says this about the construction program.
Only the runway would be built by the opening date of early 2026.
Other facilities such as new terminals, car parks, hotels and transit systems would open from 2030, with an expansion of Terminal 5 the priority
This means that the extra runway capacity can be used initially to better accommodate the same number of flights.
Perhaps Plan B would mean changing the order of construction, leaving a space for the third runway and getting Planning Permission to build it in perhaps starting in 2028.
Conclusion
This is a tough one to call and I know what I would do. I would just let it fester until the decision was forced by another factor.
But Boris is the Prime Minister and will have to make a decision!
D
Is There A Need For A Waterloo To Gatwick Service?
Whilst writing Are Network Rail And Heathrow Southern Railway Moving Towards A Joint Project On Western And Southern Access To Heathrow Airport?, I got to thinking about connectivity to London’s two main airports; Heathrow and Gatwick.
If both the Western Approach To Heathrow (WRAtH) and Heathrow Southern Railway (HSR) schemes are completed, Heathrow will have direct connections to the following major stations and areas.
- Canary Wharf using Crossrail
- City of London using Crossrail
- Clapham Junction using HSR
- HS1 using a future Crossrail to Ebbsfleet
- HS2 using Crossrail
- Liverpool Street using Crossrail
- Reading using WRAtH
- Waterloo using HSR
- West End using Crossrail
Many more places will need a single change at Clapham Junction, Farringdon, Reading, Stratford, Waterloo or Woking.
Awkward stations to get to and from Heathrow include Kings Cross, London Bridge, St. Pancras and Victoria.
Admittedly, Kings Cross, London Bridge and St. Pancras can be reached using Crossrail and Thameslink or the Underground, but Victoria is not easy as Crossrail doesn’t have an interchange with the Victoria Line.
Gatwick will have direct connections to the following major stations and areas.
- City of London using Thameslink
- HS1 using Thameslink
- Reading using GWR
- Victoria using Southern or Gatwick Express
- West End using Thameslink
Many more places will need a single change at Clapham Junction, Farringdon, Reading, or Victoria.
Awkward stations to and from Gatwick include Canary Wharf, Euston, Liverpool Street, Paddington and Waterloo.
Consider these points about Waterloo station.
Waterloo Has The Connectivity
Waterloo is on four Underground lines.
- Bakerloo Line for North West London, Paddington, West End,, South East London and North East London in collaboration with Dear Old Vicky!
- Charing Cross Branch of the Northern Line for North London, Euston and the West End.
- Jubilee Line for North West London, West End, Canary Wharf and Stratford.
- Waterloo & City Line for Bank and the City of London.
Waterloo also has its own network of frequent and comprehensive services to South West London and further afield.
Waterloo Could Be Getting Crossrail 2
In Sadiq Khan’s dreams!
The Bakerloo Line Extension and the West London Orbital Railway are much more urgent to be built, but they don’t serve Surrey, where posh commuters live!
Waterloo Is Almost A Tourist Destination
I say almost, as it is just a short walk from Westminster, several important museums and galleries, and the Thames.
Waterloo Station Is A Place To Meet Friends And Business Associates
I regularly meet friends as they pass through Waterloo station, as it has several restaurants, where you can sit, eat, drink and chat.
Waterloo Station Is Going To Be Developed
Plans are being developed to build above Waterloo station.
Could this include more hotels, in addition to offices and housing?
Why Has There Been Talk Of A Service Between Waterloo and Heathrow For Years, But Nothing About A Link To Gatwick?
Heathrow AirTrack was proposed by BAA some years ago and now Heathrow Southern Railway are putting in a privately-funded proposal.
But search for a proposal for a direct service between Waterloo and Gatwick and you find nothing sensible.
- Could it be that the route is too difficult or there is not enough capacity at Gatwick and/or Waterloo?
- Is it that a route to Heathrow would be much more profitable, as it is so much bigger?
- Is it tradition? Waterloo serves the South West and London Bridge and Victoria serves the South.
But time is moving on, a larger Waterloo and Gatwick stations are coming and Network Rail are getting some of their best brains around digital signalling.
A Waterloo And Gatwick Airport Service
As Gatwick expands, I believe that a direct service between Waterloo and Gatwick Airport will become more necessary.
The Route Of The Service
I’m not sure of this, but I believe that there is a route between Waterloo and Streatham Common or East Croydon stations, which could be used for a Waterloo to Gatwick service.
- It may need to use the flyover at Waterloo, that used to be used by Eurostar.
- I wrote about using the flyover in Waterloo Upgrade August 2017 – Waterloo To Sevenoaks.
- Could it use a route like Brixton, Herne Hill, Tulse Hill, West Norwood, Gipsy Hill, Crystal Palace, Norwood Junction and East Croydon?
- Once on the Brighton Main Line it would be plain sailing.
- Of the stations on the route I mentioned, only Norwood Junction has a direct service to Gatwick.
- A rebuilt Brixton station with its Victoria Line connection could be a valuable interchange.
- Crystal Palace will have a six trains per hour (tph) service on the Overground to Highbury & Islington.
- The route is fully electrified using third-rail.
I’m sure a practical and useful route can be found.
The Frequency Of The Service
Gatwick, Heathrow and Stansted Express services have a frequency of four tph.
So I wouldn’t think it unreasonable for a service between Waterloo and Gatwick Airport stations to have the same frquency.
Express Or Typical Suburban Service
Airport trains around London fall into two styles.
- Express – Gatwick Express, Heatrow Express and Stansted Express.
- Typical Standard Suburban Train – Crossrail and Thameslink.
As I am happy to use Thameslink to Gatwick, I have no particular preference. Except that if getting an early flight out of Gatwick, I take a night bus to Victoria and then use Gatwick Express, as it runs all night.
Passenger demand would decide, the level of service.
Trains For The Service
An appropriate train would be chosen to match the service style.
- Express – Class 387 train as per Gatwick or Heathrow Express
- Suburban Train – SWR’s Class 701 train
Both would do a very capable job.
Platforms At Waterloo
If I assume that Heathrow Southern Railway’s four tph service between Waterloo and Heathrow uses a single platform at Waterloo, I would expect it will be one of the higher-numbered platforms.
So could a Gatwick service with the same frequency use the next door platform?
This would surely be very convenient.
Conclusion
I think it is quite likely that a service between Waterloo and Gatwick Airport could be run.
But whether it is worthwhile is another matter.
It’s Not Just Drones We Should Worry About!
In The Private Thoughts of Engineers and Scientists, I talked about a discussion, I had with a chemist about the production of sarin gas.
His view was that if amateurs tried to make the deadly gas, there was a high chance, they’d kill themselves, but he had a better idea to cause havoc in a city, which I will not disclose.
I too, have a couple of non-lethal methods, that would bring an airport or a city to a standstill.
One idea is so simple, that I suspect many terrorists could think it up.
Again, I will not disclose my ideas, but they are probably just two of many.
In some ways, the success of the drones in closing Gatwick Airport will only encourage others to think of new ways to disrupt our lives.
We still don’t now, who were behind the Gatwick Airport drones, but there must be a long list of suspects.
- Extinction Rebellion
- Anti-Airport Protesters
- Russia – It worked better than Novichok!
- North Korea – Unlikely, as they don’t seem to have any spats with the UK.
One thing that may rule out a lot of groups, is that sophisticated high-performance drones are not cheap.
Other groups will be ruled out, because they want to kill hundreds of innocent people and a couple of drones are unlikely to do this.
Gatwick Sets Out Ambitious Future Growth Plan, Including Routine Use Of Its Existing Standby Runway
The title of this post, is the same as that of this Press Release from Gatwick Airport.
The plan is essentially very simple. The standby runway will be reconfigured so that it can be used for the take-off of smaller planes, whilst the current main runway is in full operation.
In the near term, they intend to make the most of one of the world’s most efficient runways, but by the mid-2020s, the standby runway will be able to be used simultaneously.
In the long term, Gatwick would aim to build the third runway on land that has been safeguarded for that purpose.
This Google Map shows the airport.
The current two runways stand out.
- The main runway is the longer Southern one.
- The standby runway is the shorter Northern one.
This second Google Map shows the Eastern ends of the two runways.
It looks to me, that with rearrangement of the taxiways, aprons and the South Terminal, that the standby runway could become a runway meeting all the regulations.
This is said in an article in The Guardian.
Gatwick’s emergency runway could be widened by 12 metres to comply with safety requirements for a 210-metre centreline gap from the main runway, and be used for an additional 10-15 short-haul flights an hour to take off.
An expanded terminal, an additional aircraft pier of landing gates and work on roads around the airport could also be required to accommodate the extra passengers. The work would take two to three years to complete.
If there is a need for for more runway capacity in the South East of England, I feel Gatwick’s plan is a good one.
These are my thoughts.
An Affordable Cost
The Guardian article quotes the cost at half a billion pounds, which in the grand scheme of transport projects is not a large sum.
- London Bridge station cost £1billion.
- Canary Wharf station cost £500million.
- Liverpool Lime Street station remodelling cost £342million.
- The Northern Line Extension to Battersea is costed at under a £1billion.
It is the sort of sum, that can be easily raised by a business like Gatwick Airport.
Minimal Disruption
It is the type of project, where during construction, with the application of good project management, there should be only minimal disruption to the following groups.
- Passengers using the Airport
- Workers needing to go to and from the Airport
- Rail passengers passing through Gatwick station
- Traffic on the nearby M23 motorway.
The biggest disruption will probably come from transporting materials to the site.
A Phased Capacity Upgrade
I also feel, that planned carefully and built over the two or three years quoted in the Guardian, that capacity could be upgraded in a gradual manner, which would be easier to utilise, than say the massive increase that would be afforded by a totally new runway.
Planned Rail Links To Gatwick
In The Rise Of Gatwick Airport, I wrote this about the rail connections to Gatwick Airport.
I found this article in TravelWeekly, which is entitled Gatwick outlines plans for a train departure to London every three minutes.
It gives a very good summary of the train services that will run to Gatwick after Thameslink is completed.
The planned hourly timetable would see:
• Four dedicated Gatwick Express trains to Victoria
• Six trains to Victoria – originating from East and West Coastway, Horsham/Littlehampton, and Three Bridges/Haywards Heath
• Four trains to Bedford via London Bridge – originating from Gatwick and Brighton
• Two trains to Cambridge via London Bridge – originating from Brighton
• Two trains to Peterborough via London Bridge – originating from Horsham
• Two trains to London Bridge – originating from Littlehampton/West Coastway, and Haywards Heath/Three Bridges.That is a total of twenty trains to and from London and beyond and most of the South Coast from Southampton to Hastings.
How many better rail-connected airports are there anywhere in the world?
The article also quotes Guy Stephenson, the Airport’s Chief Commercial Officer as saying.
The new high frequency service that will serve Gatwick will transform rail journeys for our passengers, with capacity doubling and a train to London every three minutes.
Crucially, the new trains will be much more reliable and will be stacked with amenities suited to the needs of air travellers. Combined with robust new track and signalling systems, Gatwick’s passengers will experience a really pleasant and dependable service.
Overall, the improvements to Gatwick’s rail service means that 15 million people will be brought within 60 minutes of Gatwick by rail – the best reach of any UK airport,
Reading the article, you might think that Thameslink should be called Gatwicklink!
According to this Press Release on the Gatwick Airport web site, Gatwick Airport are going to spend £120.5million on updating the rail station. This is an architect’s impression of the new station.
I also think that Gatwick could extend their Gatwick Express services.
I think we can also see development of Airport services to and from Gatwick Airport station based on the following existing services.
- Reading via the North Downs Line.
- Tonbridge and Ashford International via the Redhill to Tonbridge Line.
Will we be seeing a second Gatwick Express route from Ashford or Ebbsfleet to Reading via Gatwick Airport?
Consider.
- It would inevitably get known as the M25-on-rails.
- It gives a large number of passengers a way to get to Gatwick and Continental Rail Services without going through Central London.
- It could serve Heathrow, if they got their act together.
- Surprisingly, I think this route will be quicker to go between Reading and Gatwick, than using Crossrail and Thameslink with a change at Farringdon.
- The trains for such a service could be the same as the new Class 387/2 Gatwick Expresses, but with an IPEMU capability.
But it wouldn’t be just an Airport service, as I suspect that given adequate parking at stations, it would become a valuable cross-country route linking the rail hubs of Ebbsfleet, Gatwick and Reading. After all, North of London, the East West Rail Link is being created from Reading to Cambridge via Oxford, Milton Keynes and Bedford.
Southern also run a service from Milton Keynes to South Croydon via the West London Line. In the future this service will serve Old Oak Common station on Crossrail, HS2, the West Coast Main Line and the North London Line.
So will this service be extended from South Croydon to Gatwick and become a third Gatwick Express service?
These two additional Gatwick Express services would greatly increase or ease the airport’s links across the wider South East and to HS2 services out of Euston.
The only problem, is the overcrowding on the Brighton Main Line.
That post was written in February 2016.
The Future Of Rail Links To Gatwick
Since I wrote the article two years ago, the following has happened.
- Thameslink has opened and is now running eight trains per hour (tph) between Gatwick Airport and London St. Pancras International.
- In Gibb Report – Gatwick Airport Station Should Be Transferred To Gatwick Airport, I reported on what Chris Gibb said about the ownership of Gatwick Airport station.
- Luton Airport has been pressing for a better service. It currently has ten tph to London with timings of between 34-42 minutes.
- There are four tph between Gatwick and Luton Airports, two of which take 80 minutes and two take 100 mins.
- The world and his wife are complaining about the cut-price Class 700 trains.
- The Class 700 trains may be OK for short journeys, but they are a nightmare between say Brighton and Cambridge.
- Travellers on the East London Line are complaining that getting to Gatwick is not easy as only two tph stop at Norwood Junction.
- If the Bakerloo Line is extended to Lewisham, then it will call at New Cross Gate.
The Thameslink service needs to be improved.
- The trains need a major upgrade.
- Should there be a limited stop service, running at four tph between Brighton and Bedford, which stopped at Gatwick and Luton Airport and the Central London stations?
- Should at least four tph stop at New Cross Gate and Norwood Junction to connect to the East London Line and the proposed Bakerloo Line extension to Lewisham?
- Could a 125 mph bi-mode be developed, that would enable a service between Gatwick and Sheffield?
As there could be up to six spare paths to be allocated on Thameslink, there are a lot of possibilities for new and improved services.
If other services were extended to Gatwick Airport, it could become a major rail hub for the South East of England.
Conclusion
London and the South East needs more runway capacity.
- Extending the standby runway at Gatwick, effectively creates a very useful half-capacity runway.
- Developing a major rail hub at the Airport, would be useful for all sorts of reasons.
- Adding a second full-size runway would make Gatwick one of the busiest airports in the world.
Gatwick may be the wrong side of London, but I think it offers better possibilities than a third runway at Heathrow.
Could Rail Access To Heathrow Be Formed Of The Best Bits Of Various Schemes?
Various schemes have been proposed to improve rail access to Heathrow.
There are also two schemes in progress, that will improve rail access to Heathrow.
- Crossrail, which will open in 2019.
- Piccadilly Line Upgrade, which will be complete in 2025.
I also believe that if the West London Orbital Railway is created, then this could have a positive affect on travelling to and from Heathrow.
Heathrow In The Future
Heathrow are disclosing a master plan, for rebuilding a lot of the airport to make it more efficient and up with the best.
- There will be two main terminals; Heathrow West and Heathrow East with satellites in between handling the actual planes.
- These two terminals and the satellites will be between the two existing runways, with a passenger and baggage transport system beneath.
- Terminal Five will become Heathrow West.
- An extended Terminal Two will become Heathrow East.
- Crossrail, Heathrow Express and the Underground will serve both main terminals.
I believe that this rebuilding will happen, whether or not a third runway is built and it could start in the next few years.
Heathrow’s Pollution Footprint
Heathrow is a big polluter, but it is not so much the planes, as the diesel cars, buses and trucks serving the airport.
Uses For Improved Rail Access
There are several uses for improved rail access to Heathrow.
Passengers
Many passengers feel they must drive to and from Heathrow.
Next year, Crossrail will connect Heathrow directly to the City of London, Canary Wharf, the West End and to the heart of London’s Underground, Overground and National Rail system.
An example journey will be Bond Street to Heathrow Central in twenty-six minutes.
New trains on the Piccadilly Line are planned to enter service in 2023 and will offer more capacity and more pleasant journeys.
Currently, Piccadlly Circus to Heathrow Central takes fifty-two minutes and I would hope that this time is reduced to perhaps 40-45 minutes.
I think, these two upgrades will change the way many in Central, North East, East and South East London access the airport.
- Trains will be more comfortable.
- Trains will be frequent.
- Crossrail will be completely step-free.
- The Piccadilly Line will have more step-free stations.
- The Crossrail trains will have masses of space.
- Trains will take passengers to all the terminals
But Crossrail and the Piccxadilly Line upgrade, will do little for those in North West and South West London and those living to the West of the airport.
Workers
Workers at Heathrow, range from highly-paid pilots down to lowly-paid cleaners, with a full spectrum in between.
Many though have a problem, in that they need to get to and from the airport at times, that are inconvenient for public transport.
A station guy at Staines said that getting between there and Heathrow for an early start or after a late finish is difficult.
The lower-paid workers also need good links to areas of lower-cost housing.
In an ideal world, Crossrail and Piccadilly Line services, should run on a twenty-four hour basis, with appropriate frequencies.
Supplies For The Airport And The Aircraft
I wonder what percentage of the supplies for Heathrow is brought in by diesel truck.
In the Heathrow of the Future, surely many supplies could be loaded onto smart trolleys and taken on electric freight trains to delivery points under the airport.
Air Cargo
Heathrow is an important air cargo terminal, but as with supplies, surely the cargo can be collected outside of the airport and delivered by electric shuttle trains.
The Best Bits Of The Various Actual And Proposed Rail Routes Into Heathrow
Crossrail
- Connectivity to large parts of London and the East.
- Connectivity to lower-cost housing areas in East and West London.
- High capacity.
- Frequent trains
- Modern trains
- All terminals served
- Extra trains could be added.
The capability for 24 hour operation has hopefully been built in.
Heathrow Southern Railway
- Connectivity to Waterloo, Clapham Junction, South and South West London
- Extends Heathrow Express to Woking and Basingstoke
- Adds a new route for commuters into Paddington.
- Extends Crossrail from Heathrow to Staines.
- It will be built alongside the M25 with a tunnel to Terminal Five.
- All terminals served
- Provides a freight route into the airport from the South West.
- Privately funded.
HS4Air
- Connectivity to HS2, the Midlands, North and West of England and Wales
- Possible connection to Gatwick and Ashford for the Continent.
- North-South station in a tunnel deep under Heathrow.
- The Heathrow station will be able to handle full-length high speed trains from Birmingham, Cardiff and Manchester.
- Heathrow could become a High Speed Rail hub serving Greater Western London.
- Sneaks along the M25.
- All terminals could probably be served, by escalators and lifts from the deep station.
- Provides a freight route into the airport from the North and West.
- Privately funded
I’m keener on the section North of Heathrow, than that to the South.
Piccadilly Line Upgrade
- Connectivity to West and North London
- Connectivity to lower-cost housing areas in West London
- Frequent trains
- All terminals served.
- No new infrastructure
Probably needs 24 hour operation.
Western Rail Approach To Heathrow
- Connectivity to Slough and Reading and further West with a change.
- All terminals served.
- Provides a freight route into the airport from the West.
- Network Rail’s proposed scheme.
- Government funded (?)
West London Orbital Railway
- Connectivity to North West London with a change at Old Oak Common.
- Connectivity to low-cost hosting areas in West London.
- Created as part of the Overground.
- Eight trains per hour (tph) through Old Oak Common.
- Connectivity for high-value passengers in affluent parts of North London.
- Connectivity for important workers in less-affluent parts of North West London.
- Probably, Transport for London funded.
- No difficult construction.
The West London Orbital Railway should go ahead, because it connects so much of West London to Crossrail, Old Oak Common and High Speed Two.
Windsor Link Railway
- Connectivity to Slough and Reading and further West with a change.
- All terminals served.
- Provides a freight route into the airport from the West.
- Privately funded
This scheme also unlocks development of upmarket housing in Windsor.
Conclusions
I have seen railway stations and airports all over Europe.
Many airport stations are cramped, as they have been built as an afterthought.
But some like Schipol and Frankfurt have a comprehensive station, where you can get trains to a very long list of places without a change.
Heathrow Connectivity
Heathrow needs a very high level of connectivity, for passengers, workers and freight.
Two schemes provide that.
- Heathrow Southern Railway, which extends Heathrow Express to the South West and provides links to Waterloo and Greater South London.
- HS4Air, which has an elegant expandable station deep under the airport and connects to High Speed Two and the Great Western Railway in the North. Extending to Gatwick and Ashford for the Continent could also be possible, if required.
Western Rail Approach To Heathrow only does what it says in the name and HS4Air does that without bagging valuable platforms at Terminal Five.
What About The Workers!
Heathrow’s other big need is rail access for the increasing numbers of people, who work at the airport and live locally.
- Heathrow Southern Railway links the airport to South West London and also allows an extension of Crossrail to Staines.
- Windsor Link Railway links the airport to Windsor, Slough and Reading.
- Crossrail links the airport to Old Oak Common with its housing developments and rail connections with High Speed 2 and the London Overground.
- West London Orbital Railway will bring more workers and passengers to Old Oak Common from all over North West and South West London.
Old Oak Common will be important for many working at the airport.
Old Oak Common station
Old Oak Common station will become an important interchange for workers and passengers travelling to and from Heathrow.
- It must be totally step-free.
- Some of the long interchange walks on current plans should be augmented by travelators.
- Crossrail is planning six tph between Old Oak Common and Heathrow. Is that enough?
Get Old Oak Common right and all those needing to go to and from Heathrow will benefit.
Heathrow And Gatwick
The connection between Heathrow and Gatwick airports is tortuous at present, but will get better as the years progress, as Crossrail and Thameslink improve.
As the airports grow, with a third runway at Heathrow and a second one at Gatwick, how many people will want to travel quickly between the two airports, as increasingly, both airports will offer services to more destinations?
As a Londoner, I also believe that we will see more split flights, where passengers stopover in London for a night or two, when they are going halfway around the world. Terminal London will be the best airport transfer terminal in the world.
Predicting the number of travellers between the two airports will be extremely difficult and only a direct measurement will be a worthwhile figure.
If a direct rail link is needed, HS4Air should be extended to Gatwick to provide a frequent fifteen minute connection.
Heathrow And High Speed One
I will be very surprised if many travellers need to go quickly between Heathrow and High Speed One.
Why would anybody between say St. louis and Paris not fly direct? Perhaps only, if you were spending time in London between the two legs of your journey.
For those that need to do it, using an extended Crossrail between Heathrow and Ebbsfleet will probably be good enough.
But when passenger numbers say it would be viable, extending HS4Air to Ashford would be a distinct possibility.
Heathrow And High Speed Two
For all sorts of reasons Heathrow needs good connectivity to High Speed Two.
If I was the CEO of Heathrow, I would want to have a station at my airport, where passengers could travel to and from the major cities of Birmingham, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle and Nottingham in as direct a manner as possible.
Using Crossrail to Old Oak Common will give access to all High Speed Two trains, but the ability to get a train to the North within thirty minutes of clearing immigration and customs, would be a major selling point for my airport.
Suppose HS4Air was providing four tph to Birmingham of which two tph, went to each of Crewe/Manchester and Nottingham/Leeds.
Or the four tph could be double trains, with one half serving each Northern route.
This would make Heathrow a viable alternative to regional airports.
Heathrow will strongly support HS4Air, as it would be like having a whole series of regional flights, with a thirty minute transfer to and from long-haul routes.
Western Rail Approach To Heathrow
The Western Rail Approach To Heathrow is far inferior to the HS4Air proposal.
Consider.
- The Western Rail Approach To Heathrow only connects the Great Western Railway to Heathrow.
- HS4Air connects High Speed Two as well.
- HS4Air creates a new expandable station under the airport, which would be capable of handling the longest trains.
- HS4Air can be expanded to Gatwick and Ashford.
- HS4Air is privately funded.
Direct access between Slough and Heathrow can be provided by the Windsor Link Railway.
A Final Conclusion
All these schemes have their good points and I think that the best way to get the rail access that Heathrow and Gatwick need, is to let the private sector build what the airports need, subject to the correct planning permissions.
HS4Air’s Heathrow and Gatwick Tunnels And Stations
One of the details I like about the HS4Air proposal is that the HS4Air tracks cross both Heathrow and Gatwick Airports at right-angles to the existing rail routes through the airports.
In my experience, stations with this layout, make for an easy interchange.
I suspect, the Heathrow and Gatwick Tunnels will be very deep under the airports, which will mean the following.
- They won’t disturb the existing airport.
- All the existing Crossrail design and construction expertise will be useful.
- The station could be as large as needed, with through and terminal platforms.
The stations will have lifts, escalators and travelators all over the place to connect to the existing airport terminals.
Heathrow
The Heathrow HS4Air station could have direct services all over the place.
For many getting to Euston or Paddington to perhaps take a train to Swansea can be a pain, but if Heathrow develops a proper local transport network based on Crossrail and proposals like Heathrow Southern Railway, this will be much easier.
Heathrow Airport could become a massive High Speed Rail Hub buried under the existing Airport.
Gatwick
Gatwick Airport is already an excellent Rail-Hub between London and the South Coast.
HS4Air would mainly add fast connections to Heathrow and HS1.
I suspect that Gatwick would have a smaller number of terminal platforms than Heathrow.
Conclusion
These two stations will be massive building projects, which using the expertise gained from other similar projects, will not disrupt anything on the surface.
HS4Air Between Gatwick Airport And Ashford
This map clipped from the Expedition Engineering web site, shows the route of HS4Air between Gatwick Airport and Ashford International station.
The route reuses the existing railway between Ashford International and Edenbridge (Kent) stations.
From Gatwick Airport To Edenbridge
This Google Map shows the countryside between Gatwick and Edenbridge.
According to the first map, the Gatwick Tunnel emerges to the East of the M23 Motorway, which runs North-South down the left side of the map.
It probably emerges South of the Airport spur from the M23 and then it would travel on the surface to Edenbridge (Kent) station, which is in the North East corner of the map.
It looks to be a very challenging route, although there are several industrial sites scattered between the M23 and Lingfield, which is perhaps halfway between the motorway and Edenbridge.
This Google Map shows Edenbridge (Kent) station with the Redhill-Tonbridge Line passing through.
It would appear that the engineering could be reasonably attainable, but getting the natives on-side might not be so easy.
It’s not as though the residents between Edenbridge and Gatwick will get much benefit from HS4Air.
From Edenbridge To Ashford
This line has the following characteristics.
- It is around forty miles long.
- It is almost straight.
- It is double track.
- There are several stops.
- There is a maximum speed of 100 mph
It doesn’t appear to have many more than about four trains per hour (tph) in both directions.
Very little has been said about how HS4Air will transform the line, except that it will be upgraded to a high speed line.
The only information of value is that Ashford to Gatwick will take 25 minutes.
How far would a train go in that time at various speeds?
- 100 mph – 42 miles
- 125 mph – 52 miles
- 140 mph – 58 miles
As the route between Edenbridge and Gatwick is probably around a dozen miles, it would appear that a well-designed 125 mph route could enable the time quoted by HS4Air.
Local Stations On The High Speed Line
I’ll take Penshurst station as an example.
This Google Map shows the station.
Note that it is very simple with a platform on each line.
Currently, it gets a single tph in both directions.
HS4Air would probably mean that at least another four tph, passed through the station at 125 mph.
It could be argued that this could cause safety problems.
On the other hand, there are many stations in the UK, where local trains stop and expresses go through at 125 mph.
Platform-edge doors would be a difficult and expensive solution, but why not make access to the platform only possible, when a train is stopping?
Looking at Penshurst station, this station also needs some more facilities, like a fully accessible footbridge.
Conclusion
The Gatwick to Ashford section can be converted into a 125 mph route, which would give a time of 25 minutes between the two stations.
However, I do think there will have to be a lot of political leverage to get it built.
HS4Air Between Heathrow And Gatwick Airports
In terms of the number of trains, the route between Heathrow and Gatwick Airports could be one of the businest section of HS4Air.
This map clipped from the Expedition Engineering web site, shows the route of HS4Air between the two airports.
Note that in addition to the tunnels under the two airports, there is another tunnel through sensitive parts of Surrey.
Heathrow Southern Railway And The Southern Portal Of HS4Air’s Heathrow Tunnel
This Google Map shows the first section of the route South from Heathrow.
The two motorways are.
- The M25 goes roughly North-South.
- The M3 goes roughly East-West
I said in HS4Air’s Connections To HS2, The Great Western Main Line And Heathrow, that it appears that HS4Air’s Heathrow Tunnel will emerge somewhere just South of where the motorways meet.
The station in the South-East corner is Addlestone on the Chertsey Branch Line.
Follow the line Northward and Chertsey station is visible.
Heathrow Southern Railway intend to use this branch as part of their proposal to create access from the South into Heathrow.
From Chertsey, their route would follow to the East of the M25 and then use a short East-West tunnel to connect into Heathrow Terminal 5.
This Google Map shows the Chertsey Branch Line, where it crosses the M25.
The Chertsey Branch Line goes diagonally across the map from Chertsey station in the South-East corner to the North-West corner.
A Junction just before the Chertsey Branch crosses the M25 would connect to the new railway running on the East side of the M25, towards Heathrow.
So that HS4Air and the Heathrow Southern Railway avoid each other, it would appear that the Southern portal of HS4Air’s Heathrow Tunnel must be to the South of the Chertsey Branch.
Onward To Junction 11 Of The M25
If HS4Air, then followed the M25, it could probably be squeezed in as far as a short distance past Junction 11.
This Google Map shows the section of the M25 around junction 11.
Junction 11 to 12 Of The M25
The first map, shows HS4Air following the M25 and passing over the M25/A3 junction.
This Google Map shows the area around the M25/A3 junction.
The junction between the M25 and the A3 is clearly visible.
On either side of the A3, as it goes South of the junction are the RHS Garden Wisley and Wisley Airfield.
I doubt that HS4Air will go anywhere near the Garden, but the airfield might well be the place, where the tunnel under the North Downs has its Northern portal.
The problem is how does HS4Air get between Junctions 11 for the A320 and Junction 10 for the A3 along the M25.
This Google Map shows the section of the M25.
Junction 11 is in the top-left of the map and Junction 10 is in the bottom right.
- I have flown my helicopter along the route and in places there is not much space on either side of the road.
- The road runs through housing in places.
- The road is very busy.
- The distance between the junctions 10 and 11 is 3.6 miles.
This page on the Highways England web site, says that the road is to be converted into a four lanes each way smart motorway.
Expedition Engineering obviously have a plan to get the motorway and a double-track high speed railway through this difficult section.
The Surrey Tunnel
I said earlier that the Northern Portal of the |Surrey Tunnel will be on or in the vicinity of Wuisley Airfield.
Putting maps together and taking an educated guess, I wonder if the Southern portal is on this map, which shows an area South of Dorking.
Note the Ibstock brick works. Could this be the site?
This Google Map shows its relationship to Gatwick Airport.
The distance is about nine miles, from the brick works in the top left of the map to the Airport.
According to the first map in this post, the route is mainly on the surface
Conclusion
The route is challenging, but I’m pretty sure, that it can be created.
How Would HS4Air Affect The Western Rail Approach to Heathrow?
The Western Rail Approach to Heathrow (WRAtH), is a proposed new rail route to Heathrow from Reading and Slough.
It has a similar objective to HS4Air’s connection to the Great Western Main Line at Iver.
Both railways would connect Reading and Slough to stations in the Airport.
But in my view the HS4Air approach has several advantages.
- HS4Air connects to both Heathrow and Gatwick airports and Ashford, whereas WRAtH only connects to Heathrow.
- It would connect high speed trains from Bristol, Cardiff, Oxford, South Wales and the West of England to Heathrow, Gatwick and Ashford for Continental services.
- As an example a direct Cardiff-Ashford service would take three hours twenty minutes.
- Trains would be faster, with an operating speed between Reading and Heathrow of at least 140 mph.
But perhaps most importantly, HS4Air could be a totally privately-funded project.
Conclusion
I feel Network Rail’s proposal for a Western Rail Approach to Heathrow is not needed, if HS4Air is built.
HS4Air And Heathrow Airport’s Third Runway
HS4Air will pass under Heathrow Airport in a tunnel, where there will be a new station.
Look at how Crossrail hasn’t resulted in major demolition in Central London.
For this and other reasons, I believe that HS4Air can be built underneath the Airport without affecting what Heathrow do on the surface.
The only effect that a possible third runway and an extra terminal at Heathrow, would be minor changes to the route of the tunnel and the layout of the station.
But I suspect that HS4Air will be built, so that it is totally future-proofed for all possible developments at Heathrow.
On the other hand, HS4Air might have effects on Heathrow Airport.
- Passengers from the North of England would be more likely to come by high speed train from Birmingham and Manchester.
- Passengers from South Wales and the West of England would be more likely to come by high speed train from Bristol and Cardiff.
- The transfer between Heathrow and Gatwick would be less than twenty minutes. HS4Air claim just fifteen.
- If there was sufficient demand there could be a Heathrow-Gatwick shuttle every 10-15 minutes.
Just as some of these effects will be positive for Heathrow, they will also be positive for Gatwick.
Conclusion
I am led to the conclusion, that some politicians, who are seriously against a third runway at Heathrow, could manage to get the runway blocked or delayed for a decade, by citing HS4Air and Gatwick as a viable alternative.
But that won’t matter, as Gatwick will build the much-needed runway for the South-East and it will be less than twenty minutes from Heathrow.
