Zopa Rates Around the Election
Let’s assume that this election without a full outcome has put a lot of instability into the money markets. According to all the commentators it should. But then those traders in the City are in business to make money in the short-term and not place money for the greater good in the long-term.
So is there a real measure of what real people think about finance?
I lend money on Zopa, which is a peer-to-peer lending site. I’m not interested in short-term gains, but sensible and safe long-term growth. I get about 5.5% before tax taking everything into account. It’s also fun and a bit like gambling without the risk.
So how has Zopa performed over the last few weeks? And specifically what have their rates done?
Zopa Rates 2010 – 11th May 2010
If you look at the rates, the pattern appears to be very similar to the last few months. There has been a slight upward trend of rates, with a squiggle around the turn of the month. The latter is because most Zopa loans pay around the beginning of the month and this affects the rate as most investors reinvest their returned payments.
So does this mean that most Zopa users have just been carrying on as normal and letting the lunatics in Westminster and the City get on with their high-profile nonsense?
I shall report on this in about seven days time, as I think it will still be nice and stable despite the politics.
Coalition of All the Losers
Could we really have a coalition of all those who lost the last election?
Brown thinks so!
But would it last more than a few months? Clegg and Brown have big differences and will the British public stomach another unelected Prime Minister after Brown?
I don’t like it! And a lot of other people won’t either! And what if they bring through an anti-Tory voting system to keep power for the near to mid future?
We just have a lot of questions and no answers.
Coalition of all the C’s
Will it work? Perhaps!
A bit of history should be injected here. My father was very much a left-wing Tory and there are quite a few of them still about; Kenneth Clarke for one.
They have always been pro-welfare and the NHS and Cameron has been saying this all along. They are usually for small government with less state control. I don’t think that the Clegg would object to that.
But Cameron is pro-Trident, pro-business, anti-PR, anti-Euro and anti-Shengen.
I voted for my local Tory candidate, but I’m anti-Trident, pro-Euro and pro-Shengen. John Gummer once described me as a classic libertarian, who should read Hayek. I never have. Perhaps I should.
The problem lies with business and the economy. Here they may well have a lot in common, in that one of the real business problems in this country is all of the regulations that envelop small businesses and stop them growing. And where do eighty percent of all private sector jobs come from? The small to medium business sector. Get this right and this would create their place in history.
They may differ on how much to cut the economy, but perhaps two new brains, Osborne and Cable, may well find that the common-ground they must find actually works.
I wish them well! On the other hand anything will be better than NuLabor.
Remember too, that Vince Cable is a widow, although he has now remarried. He understands pain more than most.
I Was Wrong Last Night
I was wrong last night when I said Cameron would scrape home. He didn’t.
But we live in very interesting times.
I suspect that it could all turn out for the better, but I’m not sure how.
Scenario 1 has Brown clinging to power with all the odds and sods helping him. It would be a Parliament of all the losers. I doubt it would last long and it would result in a new election which would probably give Cameron a big majority in England. That wouldn’t be a good idea either.
Scenario 2 has Cameron trying to run a minority government in a traditional manner. We’d get another election in a few months and probably Cameron would end up with less seats.
But there is another way. There must be!
Remember, MPs don’t want another election, so could we have a sort of Grand Coalition? Probably now, but supposing Cameron tried to run a minority government and to help him he brought in secret ballots in the House of Commons.
Would there be enough in the other parties to help him govern, if their Whips didn’t know how they were voting for?
Still No Result
There’s now been 57 seats declared and it’s still not clear. Swing ignoring Northern Ireland may be enough for Cameron, if the figures from the North East hold up in the rest of England.
But I’ll stick my neck out and say that Cameron will get a majority. Or at least a majority with Northern Ireland supporting him. Remember Sinn Fein don’t turn up.
The Battle of the Web Sites
I’ve been watching the elrction results on the BBC’s web site.
Just opened the ITV’s one. And closed it immediately.
The First Tory Seat is a Gain
Kingswood with a 9.4% swing.
This coupled with average swings of about 8 to 9 in the North East might well mean that Cameron has an overall majority.
Dimbleby has just said that!
Neil Kinnock has just said it is not good for Labour.
Three Come at Once and then Nothing
We have had three declarations from Sunderland and we’re still waiting for another about an hour later.
Coupled with the poor performance of the polling stations in locking people out and not having enough ballot papers, isn’t it about time we used something like the Estonian Method of voting?
In Estonia you vote over the Internet and you can do this as many times as you like, with the last vote counting.
The Third Seat has a 4.8% Swing
Swings are all over the place.
What was it Disraeli said? There are lies, damned lies and statistics.
In fact according to Wikipedia, it wasn’t Disraeli but Charles Wentworth Dilke.
So where will it all end up? Wait until 20 seats have been declared and then use the average swing.
Emily Buchanan’s Touch Screen
It’s very big!
I want one.
It would do this idea just fine. Especially if it was a lot bigger!
The Anonymous Widower 