Fracked Or Fiction
I went to the London Geological Society today to see a lecture called.
Fracked or fiction: so what are the risks associated with shale gas exploitation?
The lecture is described here on their web site.
They will put up a video in two or three weeks, which you can watch to make your own mind up.
My overwhelming conclusion after the lecture was that before we can embrace fracking in earnest, we must collect a lot more information. For example, we don’t know the background levels ofearthquakes and natural gas seepage in this country. So if say it is thought, that fracking had caused a small earthquake, can we be sure that that isn’t one that we habitually get in this country.
A secondary conclusion, is that my engineering knowledge indicated that there are several very fruitful areas for the development of new technological solutions to mitigate some of the possible problems of fracking.
Stopping fracking is probably an easy task for opponents, as it can be portrayed as dangerous in several ways, that appeal to the sensationalist media. And of course the benefits of low gas prices aren’t so obvious, until they actually happen.
You can compare fracking with that other nimby-opposed project; HS2. This can be opposed in terms of noise, vibration and construction and visual disturbance cost, but the benefits of better and faster journeys is easier to understand by the man on the Birmingham train.
Osborne Says Redevelop Euston Before HS2
There is an article in the Standard, where George Osborne says priority should be given to the redevelopment of Euston station, before HS2 is constructed.
I use the station several times a year and compared to Kings Cross, Liverpool Street, Paddington, Waterloo, Marylebone and St. Pancras, it is totally inadequate. It is even worse at the moment, than London Bridge, which is currently a building site.
What makes it so bad, is the lack of connection to the Circle line and the endless dingy walks from the other Tube lines to the station. There is no disabled access to the Underground.
There is a lot of scope to do this rebuilding right. These factors should be considered.
- The effect of the Croxley Rail Link to Watford Junction, which should be completed in 2017.
- Any development at Watford Junction, that could ease pressure on Euston.
- Could Willesden Junction be used to take passengers off the West Coast Main Line?
- Should an Old Oak Common station be built?
Properly planned, rebuilding of Euston,. adds a whole new dimension to HS2. It even questions whether HS2 terminates at Euston!
Could George Osborne’s view on Euston station be coloured, by his own personal experience and those of his constituents?
It doesn’t matter to me, as redeveloping Euston station is good sense, for all sorts of reasons!
More Sense About HS2
The Standard today has this headline on the front page.
Crossrail and HS2 Superhub Will Bring £6bn Boost to North-West London
The article goes on to describe how where HS2 and Crossrail are supposed to meet at the new Old Oak Common station is going to be developed. Here’s the first two paragraphs.
Boris Johnson is to set up an Olympic-style regeneration agency to transform a rundown area into a thriving new district and deliver a £6 billion economic boost to London.
The Mayor wants to use Crossrail links and the planned HS2 route — which will converge at Old Oak Common — to spur the creation of 80,000 homes and 20,000 jobs.
At last someone has seen some sense in how to link HS2 into London. I talked about it earlier, so I won’t repeat myself.
Will We Get HSW Before HS2?
In this post about the BBC’s knocking of HS2, I jokingly referred to the Great Western Main Line as HSW, for High Speed West or High Speed Wales.
But is it that far from the truth?
A high speed railway is defined as one where speeds of 200 kph or 125 mph are possible. The fastest lines run at 320 kph or 200 mph.
So what speed can we expect to see on the Great Western Main Line, after it is fully modernised in 2017?
Currently the fastest trains in the UK are the Class 373 ( 300 kph) used by Eurostar, the Class 390 ( 225 kph) used by Virgin and the InterCity 225 (225 kph) used by East Coast. The latter two trains are restricted to 200 kph, due to signalling restrictions on their lines and because they have to mix it with slower trains.
It is also interesting to note that the Class 395, which bring the high speed Kent commuter services into St. Pancras run at 225 kph.
The new trains for the electrified Great Western Main Line are based on the Class 395 and are called Class 800 and Class 801. These have a design speed of 225 kph, but will be limited to 200 kph on traditional lines.
But Brunel built the Great Western for speed and a lot of the route it is pretty straight and much has four tracks. It is also going to be resignalled to the highest European standards with in-cab signalling. The latter is necessary to go above 200 kph. So it shouldn’t be one of the most difficult tasks to make much of the line capable of 225 kph or even more.
The only real problem on the line is the Severn Tunnel. But as Crossrail has shown, we have some of the best tunnel engineers in the world. So just as the Swiss dealt with their railway bottleneck of the Simplon Tunnel, all we need to do to improve the Severn Tunnel is give the best engineers their head and let them solve the problems, whilst the politicians sit around and watch and wait. After all it’s only a baby compared to the massive twin bores of the Simplon.
As an aside here, I do wonder if one of the most affordable solutions might be to use a modern tunnel boring machine to create a new tunnel alongside the current one.
Conclusion
So I believe that even if it still goes slower on opening, trains to Bristol and Wales will be doing 225 kph before the end of this decade.
If that isn’t a high speed railway like HS1, I don’t know what is?
But whatever we call it, it’ll be here several years before HS2!
I think we need to call for three cheers for Brunel, who got the route right in the first place.
Knock HS2 And It Might Go Away
I’m not a great supporter of HS2, but this story on the BBC, being spun as how it will damage other areas of the UK, is pure scaremongering and very bad journalism.
The areas, they say could be worst affected are Aberdeenshire, Norfolk, Dundee and Cardiff. On the television this morning they’re adding in Bristol and Cambridge.
Putting in Norfolk is a strange one, as obviously HS2 spending will also hurt Devon and Cornwall. These areas though will hopefully get improvement in the next few years, but this will come from using better train technology on upgraded lines.
West Norfolk for instance will be linked into the Thameslink system and electrifying and straightening the main routes across East Anglia and Ely to Norwich, would improve the area a great deal. A lot of this will happen, whether or not HS2 is built.
Devon and Cornwall is more problematical due to the geography and the scenery, but I suspect that Plymouth and Penzance will be a lot closer to London, when the electrification and new trains being planned for the Great Western Main Line are completed and delivered.
The Aberdeen and Dundee areas north of Edinburgh will always be badly served from the Scottish capital, until you build a new bridge or tunnel over the Forth of Firth. I can’t see anybody leading a campaign to replace the iconic Forth Bridge.
Cardiff and Bristol are interesting ones, as courtesy of Brunel, electrification and new trains, they will get their own HSW before HS2 is even started, at the current rate of progress. Once the Severn Tunnel is sorted, it would seem that services between the English and Welsh capitals could be around two and a half hours or even less. Having just been through the very problematic Simplon Tunnel at high speed,which is almost as old as that under the Severn, I’m certain, that a few world class engineers and tunnellers can sort out the bottleneck on the railway to Wales.
To suggest that Cambridge will be hurt by HS2, is like suggesting that the London Underground, will be hurt by Crossrail. Cambridge has recently seen an improvement of the line to London and in a few years, it will be connected to Thameslink, giving it better access to London and areas south of the Thames.
I suspect, that the overpaid BBC hack, who started this story, wants to kill HS2, as he lives in an area affected by the proposed route.
Or could, the journalist be fed-up with having to go from his home in the South East to his place of work in Manchester, so he might be very anti-train.
The BBC article is in any case unattributed.
And of course, remember it’s a much better story, if it destroys something!
Labour Plays Their Scrap HS2 Card
Ed Balls has said that Labour could scrap HS2, if it wins power in 2015. It’s reported here in the Independent.
Is it just a bribe to all those Tory voters in Middle England, who will pay much higher taxes under a Labour government?
On the other hand, this statement may just have killed the project, as will Parliament now pass the HS2 legislation? I think they won’t, as Parliament is a body, that doesn’t do big thinking well!
Will Crossrail Overload The Docklands Light Railway?
After my visit to the new Canary Wharf Crossrail station on Saturday, I got thinking about the effect of the new line on the Docklands Light Railway.
A walkway will take passengers direct from Crossrail to Poplar station on the DLR. So would commuters from Essex and Kent going to the Bank area of the City, change at Canary Wharf for the DLR?
Only real figures, when Crossrail opens in a few years time, will give the answer.
I do think though that in a few years we’ll be talking about extending the DLR from Bank towards the west. These plans are discussed here in Wikipedia, but nothing has been firmed up yet. I suspect that if anything does get built it will be the link from Bank to Euston and St. Pancras, as this will open up a new route from Canary Wharf to the train lines to the north. But the uncertainty over HS2 doesn’t help in making this decision.
A Response To HS2 Sceptics
Alistair Darling and others are right to question the current proposal for HS2.
I have a lot of experience of the history and implementation of large infrastructure projects, as many were built with the help of project management software that I created.
Many of these projects get built in a form, that is very different to first envisaged and in some cases, as with the London end of HS1, they get built twice due to the mistakes and lack of vision of politicians.
Looking at the rail system in the UK, there are some major problems that must be addressed on routes from London and the South East to the North and Scotland.
Some stations like Leeds and Birmingham have been or are being rebuilt to a modern standard, but Euston and Manchester Piccadilly are in urgent need of serious improvement, as they both suffer from severe 1960s short-termism.
Most freight now arrives in the UK through the South East ports and there are no fully-electrified routes to the Midlands and the North. We’ve even worsened this situation by building the new London Gateway superport in East London, which means heavy freight trains must mix it with the London Overground.
North of Warrington and Darlington on the West Coast and East Coast Main Lines, there is a serious lack of capacity.
There are serious bottlenecks on the main routes like the Welwyn viaduct and various crossings and stations could be improved.
As Alistair Darling indicated in his article, politicians haven’t decided on what to do with Heathrow. Anybody who called themselves a project manager would say that is the first decision you must do, as it effectively defines the southern route of HS2.
I believe that the first thing we should do after deciding about the airport, is rectify the mistakes of the Victorians and their successors, and convert the East and West Coast Main Lines into continuous quadruple-tracked railways from London to Scotland. If this was accompanied by modern in-cab signalling and overhead wiring, it would be possible with the existing trains to run services at 225 kph. This could mean that London to both Edinburgh and Glasgow would be under four hours.
This high-speed ladder, would be matched by two or three electrified cross routes like Liverpool to Hull, Manchester to Sheffield and Peterborough To Nuneaton. These would not only provide more passenger capacity, but the last route would help to alleviate the freight problem, by taking all Felixstowe traffic to and from the Midlands.
Hitachi are building a factory to make new 225 kph trains at Newton Aycliffe for the East Coast Main and Great Western Main Lines. Surely, for reasons of economy of scale, these designs should also be deployed on the East Midland Main Line and the East-West routes. We must finally rid ourselves of British Rail’s different train for each route policy.
Obviously, better stations are needed, with Manchester Piccadilly and Euston at the head of the list. Perhaps these new stations could interface a lot better with the local bus routes, which is a particular failing of Piccadilly and many other important stations.
And finally, if more capacity is proven to be needed between London and Birmingham, why not electrify the Chiltern Route from Marylebone? And of course, run new Hitachi trains on the line!
the one thing we should actually do with HS2 is safeguard the route, for when it is eventually needed.
We need more capacity and faster journeys in the near future and not on some vague whim and date conjured from the air by politicians, who want to get elected in 2015.
Do We Need A Rolling HS2?
The report today by the think tank, the Institute of Economic Affairs, which says that HS2 will cost a lot more than is currently budgetted for. It’s all reported here on the BBC.
They make a lot of good points in the report.
Extra infrastructure such as trams and trains, will be needed to link other areas to the route.
Extra tunnels and other infrastructure will be needed to buy off the opposition.
The BBC summarises it like this.
The report said HS2 “and the add-on transport schemes will be heavily loss-making in commercial terms – hence the requirement for massive taxpayer support”.
As someone, who is very familiar with project management, I’ve always felt that the logic of HS2 and the way it is being implemented could and will be improved.
If we look at the current rail network, it has problems that will eventually be solved or helped by HS2.
Euston station is not fit for purpose and should be redeveloped and/or relieved. I favour a second terminus of the West Coast Main Line at Old Oak Common, as I mused here.
There are very severe capacity problems on the northern part of the West Coast Min Line between Wigan and Glasgow. This is not part of the current HS2, so perhaps it should be done to make sure the Scots get their connections to the South improved.
The East Coast Main Line to Leeds and Newcastle, has a notorious bottleneck at the Digswell Viaduct and according to this report on the BBC web site, it could be removed for under half a billion.
One problem that HS2 doesn’t solve is the bad connections across the north of England from Liverpool to Leeds and Hull. This BBC report includes an estimate of a billion plus.
So should we just define the route for HS2 and then break it into a series of manageable projects, that are implemented over the years.
We might design large stretches for say 300 kph, but most of the upgraded network would have limits of around 200 to 250 kph. Effectively large sections of the East and West Coast Main Lines can now handle 225 kph and just need resignalling.
The new Class 800 and Class 801 trains will be built to a design speed of 225 kph.
In some ways these trains may be the key to the whole of the expansion of high-speed services. I suspect, we’ll see them on London to Sheffield and Norwich for a start.
How Not To Plan A High Speed Railway
The farce that is Fyra might have got a bit better as there are now going to be some extra Thalys trains on the line soon, as is reported here.
But this will only partially compensate for the loss of the Fyra V250 trains and capacity will be nowhere near that needed.
It will also do nothing to get round one of the major design faults of the line; the lack of a branch to the Dutch capital, The Hague. A city incidentally, which doesn’t have an airport well-connected to the city centre, unless you count Schipol.
In some ways the design of the line, would be like the UK, creating a high speed line to Scotland, that bypassed Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds.
The Dutch also have a problem in that their tracks aren’t to the European standard of trains on the left, electrified to 25,000 volts AC, so it makes it difficult for high speed trains to run on secondary lines, as they do in most other European countries, The suburban Class 395 run in rural Kent and on HS1. Like the Thalys, they have a multi-voltage capability.
Another problem is that there aren’t enough Thalys trains and you can’t just rustle up some new ones quickly. In fact I suspect there is a large shortage of rolling stock across Europe and I suppose the real problem, is that because every country seems to work to different standards and local politics, manufacturers rely too much on living on the scraps politicians give them. So say if we need say some extra stock on the East Coast Main Line, we can’t generally borrow from the Germans. Saying that though, but for a few years Regional Eurostar trains did run to Leeds. But then that train was designed to run in the UK, France and Belgium.
We also complain in this country about orders for trains going to foreign manufacturers, but this is a Europe wide problem.
What we need is standards for railways that apply across most of Europe. When you have travelled on trains as much as I have you realise what a disconnected design it all is.
The Anonymous Widower 