The First Of The Cavalry Arrive To Rescue Kwasi Kwarteng
Most commentators think Kwasi Kwarteng is in trouble, but I feel that he has the strength of the mathematics around him.
This press release from BP was released on Wednesday and is entitled UK Offshore Wind: Laying The Groundwork Today.
These two paragraphs outline the work BP are doing to develop wind power in the Irish Sea.
Plans are critical, but it’s putting them into action that counts. As part of our strategy to get wind turbines turning, specialist vessels and crew are out on the Irish Sea undertaking massive seabed survey work. It’s an early but important step on the road to building some of the UK’s biggest offshore wind farms.
Once up and running, our Morgan and Mona projects could deliver enough capacity to power 3.4 million homes with clean electricity and help the UK to meet its climate goals. Their near-shore location – around 30 kilometres off the coast of northwest England and north Wales – will allow for lower-cost, more reliable transmission infrastructure, making them a core part of our plans for more secure and lower carbon energy for the UK.
This EnBW-BP infographic describes the project.
Note.
- BP’s partner is EnBW, who are a publicly-traded German energy company.
- There is a project web site.
- The press release and the graphic are showing the same numbers.
- Morgan and Mona will use proven fixed-foundation wind turbine technology.
- The combined site is around 800 km² or a square of under thirty kilometers, so it is only quite small in the context of the Irish Sea.
- First operation is given on the web site as 2028.
As BP and enBW have massive financial, engineering and project management resources, I believe they will look to bring the 2028 operation date as far forward as is possible.
If you do the cash flow for a project like this, especially when you have the financial and engineering resources of BP and enBW, the mathematics show that if you can accelerate the installation of the turbines, you will start to have a cashflow earlier and this will finance the debt needed to install the wind farms.
Consider.
- I believe the 2028 date, is one that BP know they can keep, to satisfy the Stock Market and investors.
- BP have large cash flows from their profitable oil and gas businesses.
- BP have probably reserved places in the manufacturing queues for wind turbines, foundations and all the electrical gubbins to connect the turbines to shore.
- BP want to prove to themselves and sceptics, that they can handle the building of wind farms.
- The are already lots of wind farms along the North Wales Coast, so I suspect that the problems of building wind farms in the Irish Sea are well known.
I will not speculate on the date that Mona and Morgan are complete, but I very much doubt it will be in 2028.
These are some more thoughts from the BP press release.
What’s Happening And Why?
The purpose of these deep geotechnical investigations, carried out by specialist Geo-data company Fugro, up to 100 metres below the seabed is to determine soil characteristics for foundation design (find out how it’s done in the short film, above). Collecting this data will enable bp and EnBW to build efficient offshore wind farms with the least environmental impact. It is crucial for securing government consents for the projects and defining the structure and location of the individual turbines.
Even thirty kilometres off shore, there needs to be detailed planning permission.
Our Other Offshore Wind Projects
We aim to become a leader in offshore wind and, over the past three years, we’ve built up a pipeline of projects with partners in both the US and UK that have the potential to power more than 5 million homes.
And earlier this year, we agreed to form a partnership with Marubeni to explore an offshore wind development in Japan.
It’s all part of our aim to have 20GW of developed renewable generating capacity by 2025 and 50GW by 2030 – that’s broadly enough to power the needs of 36 million people.
Note.
- Their ambitions are high, but then so much of the experience of offshore oil and gas can be applied to offshore wind.
- BP has the cashflow from oil and gas to reinvent itself.
- Assuming a strike price of £40/MWh and an average capacity factor of 30 %, that is an income of around five billion pounds for starters.
- If they added energy storage to the wind farms, there’s even more money to be generated.
As Equinor, Ørsted and SSE have shown, you have to be big in this business and BP aim to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest.
Conclusion
Wind farms like Mona and Morgan, and there are several under development, will create the electricity and revenue, that will come to the rescue of the Chancellor.
As I update this after a busy day, it looks like Jeremy Hunt has inherited KK’s excellent groundwork and mathematics.
The Anonymous Widower 
Rather like Garnet Wolseley and the relief expedition to save Gordon of Khartoum I fear that the combined forces of BP and EnBW will arrive too late to save Kwasi Kwarteng.
Like all parents I wonder whether Kwazi’s father Alfred, an economist has had to bite his tongue when offering advice to his son.
Comment by fammorris | October 14, 2022 |
I suspect BP will get Mona, Morgan and Morven up and running in 2025, which is 5.9 GW. So when the lights don’t go out, they can claim credit and get masses of good publicity. It will be difficult but BP have the financial muscle to do it.
Comment by AnonW | October 14, 2022 |
Liz wasn’t listening…………..
Comment by Nicholas Lewis | October 14, 2022 |
It wasn’t Liz, she’s a puppet. It was the Conservative Party’s backbenchers.
Comment by fammorris | October 14, 2022 |