The Anonymous Widower

Thoughts On Rail Capacity Between London And The North

This is just a rough calculation to see how many trains can be run between London and the North.

I shall do the calculation by station.

Euston

Trains are.

• Avanti – Birmingham – 1 tph (trains per hour)
• Avanti – Blackpool North – 1 tpd (trains per day)
• Avanti – Blackpool North via Birmingham – 2 tpd
• Avanti – Edinburgh via Birmingham – 1 tp2h – (trains per two hours)
• Avanti – Glasgow – 1 tph
• Avanti – Glasgow via Birmingham – 5 tpd
• Avanti – Holyhead – 8 tpd
• Avanti – Liverpool – 1 tph
• Avanti – Manchester – 3 tph
• WMT – Birmingham – 2 tph
• WMT – Crewe – 1 tph

This gives totals of  9 tph, 1 tp2h and 16 tpd

King’s Cross

Trains are.

• Grand Central – Bradford – 4 tpd
• Grand Central – Sunderland – 6 tpd
• Hull Trains – Beverley – 2 tpd
• Hull Trains – Hull – 5 tpd
• LNER – Bradford- 2 tpd
• LNER – Edinburgh – 3 tp2h
• LNER – Harrogate – 1 tp2h
• LNER – Hull – 1 tpd
• LNER – Leeds – 3 tp2h
• LNER – Lincoln – 1 tp2h
• LNER – Middlesbrough – 1 tpd
• LNER – Skipton – 1 tpd
• LNER – Sunderland – 1 tpd
• LNER – York- 1 tp2h
• Lumo – Edinburgh – 5 tpd

This gives totals of  9 tp2h and 28 tpd

Marylebone

Trains are.

• Chiltern – Birmingham – 2 tph

This gives totals of  2 tph

St. Pancras

Trains are.

• EMR – Corby – two tph
• EMR – Nottingham – two tph
• EMR – Sheffield- two tph

This gives totals of  6 tph

Grand Totals

Grand totals are  17 tph, 10 tp2h and 44 tpd

I will assume.

• 10 tp2h is equivalent to 5 tph.
• 44 tpd is equivalent to 3 tph if trains start journeys between 0600 and 2100.

This means that currently, there is the equivalent of 25 tph between London and the North.

The Effect Of High Speed Two

The capacity of High Speed Two is 17 tph, so, that appears to be a 68 % increase in paths to the North.

Consider.

• Assume we need 25 tph between London and the North.
• 17 tph will be on High Speed Two.
• 8 tph will be on classic routes like the East Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and West Coast Main Line.
• High Speed Two trains are 400 metres long.
• Current trains are about 240 metres long.

I have done a weighted calculation, which shows that passenger capacity between London and the North, will increase by around 45 %.

High Speed Two will surely release paths between London and the North on the classic routes, that could accommodate somewhere around 17 tph.

These could be used for.

• Services not suitable for High Speed Two
• New services
• Freight services
• Open access services

There is a lot of capacity that can be reused.

What Will Happen To Classic Routes Between London And The North?

Consider.

• The East Coast Main Line between London and Doncaster, is being upgraded with full digital signalling to allow running at up to 140 mph and increased train frequencies.
• Similar upgrades will be surely be applied to the other classic routes between London and the North.
• Important destinations, that will not be served by High Speed Two, like Coventry, Derby, Leicester, Luton, Milton Keynes and Peterborough could be given high speed connections, to Birmingham, London and Manchester.
• The East Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and West Coast Main Line will all be electrified with some sections of quadruple track in a few years.
• Currently, the East Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and West Coast Main Line are mainly 125 mph lines and these could be upgraded to 140 mph with digital signalling.

I could envisage the East Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and West Coast Main Line being developed into a secondary 140 mph network based on the existing  stations lines and services.

Conclusion

High Speed Two is going to have a lot of collateral benefits in Middle England.

 

July 21, 2023 - Posted by AnonW | Transport/Travel | Avanti West Coast, Digital Signalling, East Coast Main Line, East Midlands Gateway, Grand Central Trains, High Speed Two, Hull Trains, LNER, Lumo, Midland Main Line, West Coast Main Line, West Midlands Trains