Taking Risks
In this article in The Times yesterday Carl Mortished was arguing that we need more risk-takers. He ends with these two paragraphs.
The solution to our economic problems is not to tie everything down but to unwind the screws, loosen the bolts. We want true risk-takers, those people who centuries ago might finance a ship destined for a spice island. Someone truly prepared to risk the shirt on their backs, who fears that his “monstruosity” might bite off his own head.
Financial capital is now fleeing Britain, heading to the Far East. A long queue of companies is chasing the money, including our own Prudential, which is floating a business on the Chinese stock market. The true venturers are over there, not in Britain.
He is absolutely right.
So am I still taking risks?
Yes!
For a start I’m going round the world. Not much you’d think, but I’ve lost my wife and youngest son in recent years, five weeks ago I had a small stroke and the medics have said I’ve got a leaky heart valve and the heart rhythm is up the creek.
So take risks and enjoy life. Live the quiet life and you’ll never understand what it’s all about.
Zopa and the Election
I am an inveterate analyser of data. After all it’s what I’ve done since I was about seventeen and I successfully explained the shape of the response I got when a small ferrous inclusion in a copper wire passed through an electromagnetic coil.
That was forty-five years ago.
So can all the data I’ve got from Zopa be used to explain how people feel about the election and show how Zopa is affected by what is going to happen on May 6th?
Here’s a graph of my returns since the start of the year.
Zopa Returns - 2010
The four lines on this graph are.
- The rate at which money is lent out in the A* Rate.
- The return on money in Zopa over the last six months. This takes account of any bad debts.
- The return on money over the last year. Bad debts as before.
- The return on money over the last year, adjusted for arrears. Bad debts are accounted for and if arrears are greater than a year ago, they are counted as bad debts.
Taking the last three it would appear that things have changed since the election was announced, as they have all dropped and then recovered slightly. This is solely due to an additional bad debt, caused by the death of the borrower. No system can take care of that very sad event.
Probably the best measure of the return is to look at it in the middle of the month. Today is the 13th, so the return on money over the last year is 5.42%, 5.35%, 5.38% and 5.18% for the last four months. So it has dropped 0.2% because of that bad debt. If that is eliminated then the return for April 13th would actually be 5.37%.
So the election has done what you’d expect and had no affect, as most deals were done whilst the date of the election was not known.
But look at the A* borrowing rate.
If you look at the graph, you’ll see that the rate often drops around the 5th to the 10th of each month. This is probably because most loans are paid around the turn of the month and the effect of that money being reinvested is to drop the loan rate slightly because of the supply of money being increased.
But this month it has dropped further than normal after creeping up slightly for the last month or so. Perhaps the rate has increased because of high demand for money.
Could this be that as reported retail sales have been high this month and people are borrowing at a rate they trust to finance it? Or are they worried about the new government increasing VAT?
But really there is no hard and fast evidence that Zopa is being seriously affected by the election.
I shall return to this as the elction approaches.
Harry Markopolos – 2
I bought the book from Waterstones yesterday and I have read the first few chapters on the train home from London.
Brilliant!
He spotted what Madoff was up to in 2000, but the SEC wouldn’t listen and took no action. He also alleges that others felt the same about Madoff, but were happy to take the money.
My respect for Harry grows.
Reading his book, just increases my distrust for financial advisers. I think it is why I like Zopa. There the money is under MY control and I live or fall by my decisions. I know nothing about stocks and shares, so I keep clear of them.
Harry Markopolos
Harry Markopolos is the sort of man I like.
In 2000, he was asked if he could find out how Bernard Madoff made such high returns. So he reverse-modelled Madoff’s results and concluded that he was either running a giant Ponzi scheme or he was illegally trading clients money.
He stuck at it and in 2005 to sent a document to SEC regulators stating.
Bernie Madoff is running the world’s largest unregistered hedge fund. He’s organized this business as “hedge fund of funds privately labeling their own hedge funds which Bernie Madoff secretly runs for them using a split-strike conversion strategy getting paid only trading commissions which are not disclosed.”
No action was taken and we all know now that he was right as in December 2008, Madoff confessed and he is now spending the rest of his life in jail.
Harry has just written a biography called No One Would Listen; A True Financial Thriller.
I shall be buying.
As to Madoff, he just proved that if something is too good to be true, it probably is. It’s just that when people do what Madoff did, no-one listens to the Harrys of this world.
How to Repossess an Aeroplane
I found this story on Popbitch.
It just shows that there are some funny jobs in this world.
But it also reminds me of a story about how to repossess a taxi, when the borrower is behind on the payments. You may know where he lives, but then you can never be sure whether he is in and if he knows you’re after him, he’s probably got the car and his livelihood securely locked away elsewhere.
So you go to a pub on an anonymous housing estate and phone his firm for a taxi. You say that you always have X and are prepared to wait. The firm are always happy to oblige if he’s working. If not, you say forget it.
Now taxi drivers usually pull up on the pub forecourt, leave the engine running and run into the pub shouting something like “Taxi for the Station”.
When they do, you just get in the taxi and drive away.
A Tax on Coeliacs – 2
It’s funny, but all the budget forums I’ve read so far have got coeliacs in them moaning about the tax on cider. There are three in this article in the Guardian for a start.
If nothing else, Darling has at least got coeliacs talking about their condition on the Internet.
As they make up one percent of the population, could they have an effect on the election? Probably not, but it does show how stupid Darling is. Surely, he needed to bring in a flat tax rate for drinks like cider, so that cheap crap was taxed heavily and the good expensive stuff wasn’t.
But then in most cases you have to be stupid to be a politician!
The Banks Hidden Charges With Zopa
Not on Zopa!
Everything they do is detailed on your statement.
But take this week.
I wanted to put £500 into Zopa on Monday, so I did the transfer then. Only three days later has it turned up in my Zopa account. It used to be done straight from my debit card, but then one of the banks said that doing it that way, they didn’t get their pound of flesh.
So effectively they have my money for three days. At my rate of return on Zopa, that’s about forty-five pence.
Why?
I suppose they have to make their bonuses some way. My old mate, David, once told me that in the 1980s banks made a third of their profits on this sort of overnight money.
Has anything changed?
The Cider Revolt
The BBC has just had a full hour on the tax on cider.
But perhaps the most extraordinary feature is the number of protests on Facebook in a Group called, “Leave Our Cider Alone”. It has got over 13,000 members in well under a day.
A Tax on Coeliacs
Darling has put the tax on cider up significantly.
It may be alright for those who can drink beer! But I can’t!
The Budget
Today we have the budget.
It is very much a waste of time, as the election is not even around the corner, but here in a few weeks.
But I have a more fundamental problem with budgets. If you run a business, you take financial decisions on a day-to-day basis and not at one fixed point in the year.
So is the system we have rather outdated in a modern world were a crisis can hit you overnight?
I don’t think we want to have budgets every month, but we need to have a system that on the one hand is more responsive to events and on the other takes the variations out of such things as fuel prices.
What would I do?
- I’d tax all energy heavily and use the money saved to take millions out of the tax system. It couldn’t be done overnight, but increased yearly it would have profound and positive effect on everybody’s lives.
- I’d also abolish Vehicle Excise Duty and replace it with a car transfer tax of say £30 or so to make sure all vehicles were very traceable.
- I’d also tax aircraft fuel. It is ridiculous that it is tax-free.
- I’d have a top tax rate of 50%, but anybody you employ for whatever purpose would be allowable against that tax. So if you have an idea, you could perhaps employ a student to do the leg work on it for say six months and then claim that against your tax. Childcare, gardening and all those other things would also be allowed.
- I’d abolish Inheritance Tax. I’ve had letters published in the Financial Times on that one. Two pence on Income Tax would raise the same and rich never pay Inheritance Tax anyway.
- I’d increase the tax on tobacco. Although, I doubt it would raise much money.
- I’d subsidise patents and IPR. The costs at present strangle innovation by individuals.
- But the biggest savings will come from getting rid of projects that no-one actually wants, like aircraft carriers, Joint Strike Fighter, Trident replacement, identity cards, bureacracy, extravagant pensions for civil servants etc. It is a long list!
I’ll add to this as the day goes on.
The aim though is to be tax neutral and perhaps even raise a bit more.
If you take high energy taxes, then this would raise more tax than you think, as there are large numbers of people who don’t pay tax and always seem to have large 4x4s. We’d be taxing the Black Economy which is a lot bigger than anybody thinks.
We should aim to have taxes that you can’t avoid or taxes that by avoiding them you create jobs and commercial activity.
The Anonymous Widower 