Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?
Someone asked me if we will run out of power, if Vlad the Mad cuts all the gas to Western Europe.
This was my reply.
It appears that this year, 3.2 GW of new offshore wind farms could start producing electricity, followed by similar amounts in both 2023 and 2024.
One of those to come on stream about now is the 1.4 GW Hornsea 2 wind farm!
The follow-up 2.9 GW Hornsea 3, signed a contract last week for delivery in 2026/27.
Moray East in Scotland and Triton Knoll off Lincolnshire, are also scheduled to come on stream this year and they’re around 900 MW each.
As someone, who used to write project management software, I hope the companies building these fields have enough resources, in terms of people, boats, cranes and money. But as the companies are all the Shells of the wind industry, I would hope they have got their sums right.
What About The Contracts for Difference Awarded In Allocation Round 4?
We are currently fighting two wars at the moment.
- The main war in Ukraine, where we are giving that unfortunate country all the help we can.
- The secondary war in the UK against energy prices.
Would it help our cause in both wars, if we produced more energy?
- More renewable energy would reduce our dependence on imported gas.
- The gas saved could go to Europe.
- Europe would not be buying Vlad the Mad’s bloodstained gas.
- Replacing gas with solar and wind power might reduce energy prices.
If I put myself in the position of a struggling farmer with a contract for difference to build a solar farm on a poor field, I would want that farm to be earning money as soon as possible.
- Now that I have the contract can I start assembling that solar farm?
- Similar arguments can probably be used for onshore wind, which must be easier to assemble, than offshore wind.
- I don’t think that the hard-pressed energy suppliers would bother, if they received some quality cheap electricity earlier than they expected.
- Obviously, all the cables and the substations would need to be in place.
So I think that it is reasonable to assume, that energy might ramp up quicker than expected.
It could even be more front-loaded, if all the installers got a shift on.
Every little helps!
New Renewable Energy In 2023?
These wind farms are scheduled for commissioning in 2023.
- Neart Na Gaoithe – 450 MW
- Sofia Offshore Wind Farm – 1400 MW
- Seagreen Phase 1 – 1075 MW
We could see 2925 MW of offshore wind power commissioned in 2023.
New Renewable Energy In 2024?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2024.
- Dogger Bank A – 1200 MW
- Round 4 Solar – 125.7 MW
- Dogger Bank B – 1200 MW
- Dogger Bank C – 1200 MW
Note, where a windfarm is given a commissioning date of 2023/24 in Wikipedia , I will put it in 2024.
We could see 3726 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2024.
New Renewable Energy In 2025?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2025.
- Moray West – 1200 MW
- Round 4 Solar – 1958 MW
- Round 4 Onshore Wind – 888 MW
- Round 4 Energy from Waste – 30 MW
- Vanguard Boreas Phase 1 – 1400 GW
We could see 6476 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2025.
New Renewable Energy In 2026?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2026.
- East Anglia 1 North – 800 MW
- East Anglia 2 – 900 MW
- Round 4 Tidal Stream – 5.62 MW
We could see 1705 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2026.
New Renewable Energy In 2027?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2027.
- Round 4 Tidal Stream – 35.2 MW
- Round 4 Floating Offshore Wind – 32 MW
- Round 4 Offshore Wind – 5594 MW
- Hornsea 3 Offshore Wind – 2852 MW
- Hinckley Point C Nuclear – 3,260 MW
We could see 13173 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2027.
Too Much Electricity!
Summarising the figures for new capacity gives.
- 2022 – 3200 MW
- 2023 – 2925 MW
- 3024 – 3726 MW
- 2025 – 6476 MW
- 2026 – 1705 MW
- 2027 – 11773 MW
This totals to 28554 MW.
One problem we may have is too much electricity and as we are not blessed with much storage in the UK, where will be able to put it?
In a strange way, Vlad the Mad may solve the problem, by cutting off Europe’s gas.
We have a few interconnectors, where we can export the electricity to allow the Belgians, Dutch, French and the Germans to have a shower.
- BritNed – 1 GW – Isle of Grain and Rotterdam
- ElecLink – 1 GW – England and France through the Channel Tunnel.
- HVDC Cross-Channel – 2 GW – England and France
- IFA-2 – 1 GW – England and France
- Nemo Link – 1 GW – Richborough and Zeebrugge
- North Sea Link – 1.4 GW – Blyth and Norway
- Viking Link – 1.4 GW – Lincolnshire and Denmark
It looks like construction may be starting soon for another interconnector. NeuConnect will have a capacity of 1.4 GW between the Isle of Grain and Wilhelmshaven.
Conclusion
If I was the German Chancellor, I’d do everything in my power to accelerate the construction of NeuConnect!
2.2 GW Of Solar Farms To Be Installed In The UK
This document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity that were announced yesterday.
There were sixty-six solar power projects, that totalled up to 2.2 GW, which gives an average size of 33.3 MW.
- Many complain that we don’t have enough sun in this country, so surely solar farms totalling up to 2.2 GW is an astonishing figure.
- For a comparison, Hinckley Point C will supply 3.26 GW.
- In Cleve Hill Solar Park, I wrote about the largest, which will be a 350 MW solar farm with a 700 MWh battery.
- Sixty-one are in England, two are in Wales and surprisingly three are in Scotland, So being that far North isn’t as bad for solar power, as you might think.
- It looks like 251.38 MW are proposed to be installed in 2023/24 and 1958.03 MW in 2024/25.
The Wikipedia entry for Solar Power In The United Kingdom, gives these numbers.
UK solar PV installed capacity at the end of 2017 was 12.8 GW, representing a 3.4% share of total electricity generation. Provisionally, as of the end of January 2019 there was 13,123 MW installed UK solar capacity across 979,983 installations. This is an increase of 323 MW in slightly more than a year. A new record peak generation from photovoltaics was set at 9.68 GW on 20 April 2020.
How many people correctly predicted that the UK would be be generating so much energy from the sun?
How Many Of These Solar Farms Will Be Co-located With Batteries Or Wind Farms?
Consider.
- Cleve Hill Solar Park will be a 350 MW solar farm, that is co-located with a 700 MWh battery.
- Is it significant that the battery could supply 350 MW for two hours?
- It also connects to the grid at the same substation, that connect the London Array offshore wind farm.
- As substations are complicated and probably expensive bits of electrical gubbins, sharing a substation is probably a good idea to save costs.
I hope that companies like wind and solar farm developers, the National Grid and Network Rail talk a lot to each other, so that efficient infrastructure is developed.
Conclusion
Over the years 2023 to 2025, we should develop these solar farms at a rate of around 0.7 GW per year.
Can we sustain that rate in the future or will we run out of land?
Birth Of A Station
Thanet Parkway station is under construction and should be opened in May next year.
Work is progressing as this Google Map shows.
Note.
- The A299 goes across the top of the map.
- The Ashford – Canterbury – Ramsgate Line runs diagonally from South-West to North-East across the map.
- Ashford and Canterbury are to the South-West.
- Ramsgate is to the North-East.
The new Thanet Parkway station appears to be being built on the triangular site between the A299 and the railway.
- There appear to be two entrances/exits to the station from the A299.
- The pedestrian bridge over the railway is under construction.
- The roads and walkways around the station are being laid.
This video gives more details of the station.
Parking At Thanet Parkway
According to the video, there are nearly three hundred parking spaces, with a number of disabled spaces and spaces with charging for electric cars.
Is that going to be enough spaces?
But at least, there may be fields around the station, that could be used to provide additional parking.
Richborough Energy Park
This Google Map shows the area around the station and to the South towards Richborough.
Note.
- The under-construction Thanet Parkway station is in the North-East corner of this map to the West of the village of Cliffsend.
- The dual-carriageway of the A256 runs North-South down the map to a roundabout.
- To the West of the roundabout is Richborough Energy Park.
This Google Map shows the are round the energy park and the roundabout in more detail.
Note.
- The Richborough substation in the South-West corner of the map.
- The Richborough Energy Park sits to the East of the substation.
- The solar panels to the North of the roundabout are the 4.9 MW Ebbsfleet Solar Farm, which is part of Richborough Energy Park.
Richborough Energy Park is an ongoing project.
The national grid interconnector from the original power station is still in place, and is now the grid link for the 300 MW offshore Thanet Wind Farm.
It is the terminal for the NemoLink interconnector to Belgium.
Wikipedia says this about future plans.
The current owner of the site, BFL Management Ltd, plan to bring the site back into use as a £750 million green energy park. There are additional plans to create additional recycling and green energy facilities on site, including an anaerobic digester, a waste processing plant, a biomass combined heat and power generator, a pyrolysis plant and a peak demand 30MW diesel generator. When fully operational, the park could provide up to 1,400MW of power, employing 100 full-time equivalent, with up to 500 jobs in the construction phase.
I am surprised, that there is no mention of batteries or energy storage.
This press release from Network Rail is entitled Charge While You Travel With New Electric Vehicle Charging Points At Network Rail Stations.
This the body of the press release
Rail passengers with electric vehicles will be able to charge while they travel thanks to the introduction of 450 new electric vehicle charging points at Network Rail-managed car parks at railway stations.
The charging points, powered by guaranteed renewable energy, provide enough power to fully charge a vehicle in as little as 3-4 hours.
In this phase, Network Rail has powered: 160 charging points in Reading, 111 in Manchester, 84 in Edinburgh, 56 at Leeds and 41 in Welwyn Garden City.
Electric vehicle charging points will be installed across 10% of car parking spaces (approximately 779 spaces) at car parks managed by Network Rail by March 2024.
Rail is already the leading form of green public transport and this marks another milestone in Network Rail’s commitment to a low-emission railway – making sure rail is environmentally-friendly, resilient to climate change and able to provide an excellent service for years to come.
The new Compleo charging points are marked with green parking bays and passengers can pay for what they need quickly and easily via the APCOA Connect app.
Note, that there is no mention, if these are vehicle-to grid (V2G) chargers.
In Airport Plans World’s Biggest Car Parks For 50,000 Cars, I stated my belief that car parks, with hundreds or even thousands of vehicles could be turned into giant grid batteries.
- All electric vehicles, when they are parked would be plugged in to V2G chargers.
- The vehicle and the grid, would know your expected return time and how much power you would need. Probably from a parking app, assisted by AI!
- If the grid borrowed your electricity, whilst you were away, you wouldn’t know, until you received the payment for the loan.
- If your car runs on hydrogen, the parking could also handle the battery, that all hydrogen-powered vehicles have.
Thanet Parkway station would be an ideal station for such a parking system for electric vehicles.
The Anonymous Widower 