Where’s The Plan, Rishi?
In RWE Goes For An Additional 10 GW Of Offshore Wind In UK Waters In 2030, I detailed how RWE intended to add an extra 10 GW of offshore wind to the seas around the UK.
As our current offshore wind capacity is around 15 GW, another 10 GW would surely be very welcome.
My post also outlined H2ercules, which is Germany’s massive project to create a hydrogen network to bring hydrogen to Southern Germany.
I also gave details of the hydrogen hub at Wilhelmshaven, which is being built by Uniper to feed H2ercules with green hydrogen from around the world.
I believe that some of this hydrogen for H2ercules will take a short trip across the North Sea from UK waters, after being created by offshore electrolysers.
Rishi Sunak’s Manifesto Speech – June 11
I also reported on Rishi Sunak’s Manifesto Speech, which he made on June 11th. This is an extract
This document on the Policy Mogul web site is entitled Rishi Sunak – Conservative Party Manifesto Speech – Jun 11.
These are three paragraphs from the speech.
We don’t just need military and border security. As Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has shown, we need energy security too. It is only by having reliable, home-grown sources of energy that we can deny dictators the ability to send our bills soaring. So, in our approach to energy policy we will put security and your family finances ahead of unaffordable eco zealotry.
Unlike Labour we don’t believe that we will achieve that energy security via a state-controlled energy company that doesn’t in fact produce any energy. That will only increase costs, and as Penny said on Friday there’s only one thing that GB in Starmer and Miliband’s GB Energy stands for, and that’s giant bills.
Our clear plan is to achieve energy security through new gas-powered stations, trebling our offshore wind capacity and by having new fleets of small modular reactors. These will make the UK a net exporter of electricity, giving us greater energy independence and security from the aggressive actions of dictators . Now let me just reiterate that, with our plan, we will produce enough electricity to both meet our domestic needs and export to our neighbours. Look at that. A clear, Conservative plan not only generating security, but also prosperity for our country.
It is now nine days since Rishi made that speech and I can’t remember any reports about an energy security policy, which he outlined in the last paragraph of my extract from his speech.
He particularly mentioned.
- New gas-powered stations
- Trebling our offshore wind capacity
- Having new fleets of small modular reactors.
He also said we would have sufficient electricity to export to our neighbours. As I said earlier some of this energy will be in the form of hydrogen, which has been created by offshore electrolysers.
If we are exporting electricity and hydrogen to Europe, this is likely to have three effects.
- An improvement in Europe’s energy security.
- H2ercules will improve and decarbonise German industry, using UK hydrogen.
- The finances of UK plc will improve.
It looks like there will be winners all round.
Rishi also said this, in his speech.
As Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has shown, we need energy security too.
The gas-powered stations, offshore wind farms and the fleets of small modular reactors, will be part of the equation.
But I believe, we need three other components to complete our energy security.
- The upgrading of the National Grid.
- The building of four x 2 GW interconnectors between Scotland and Eastern England.
- Large amounts of energy storage.
Note.
- The Great Grid Upgrade and the four x 2 GW interconnectors are being planned.
- In Huge Boost To UK Supply Chain As National Grid Launches The Great Grid Partnership With Seven New Industry Partners, All United In The Drive To Deliver The Great Grid Upgrade, I describe how National Grid has setup the Great Grid Partnership to deliver the Great Grid Upgrade.
- In UK Infrastructure Bank, Centrica & Partners Invest £300M in Highview Power Clean Energy Storage Programme To Boost UK’s Energy Security, I describe how the big boys do a deal with Highview Power to create affordable batteries for the UK and the world.
- In Grid Powers Up With One Of Europe’s Biggest Battery Storage Sites, I describe how the very large Swardeston BESS is to be built near Norwich.
- In Mercia Power Response & RheEnergise Working Together To Build Long Duration Energy Storage Projects In The UK, I describe another UK-developed long duration energy storage system, which is now being planned.
- In National Grid Shares Proposals For Green Electricity Projects In Lincolnshire And West Norfolk, Needed To Boost Home-Grown Energy Supplies And Progress Towards Net Zero, I describe National Grid’s projects in the East of England.
- In UK ESO Unveils GBP 58 Billion Grid Investment Plan To Reach 86 GW of Offshore Wind By 2035, I show how we’re not that far away from 86 GW by 2035.
- In 400k For National Grid Innovation Projects As Part Of Ofgem Fund To Help Shape Britain’s Net Zero Transition, I describe how National Grid is using innovation to help target net-zero by 2035.
- In Iberdrola Preparing Two East Anglia Offshore Wind Projects For UK’s Sixth CfD Round, I describe how Iberdrola is getting 1.7 GW ready for commissioning in 2026.
- In National Grid To Accelerate Up To 20GW Of Grid Connections Across Its Transmission And Distribution Networks, I describe how National Grid are accelerating the development of the electricity networks. 10 GW of battery storage is a collateral benefit.
These ten projects, most of which are financed and/or underway, would appear to be good foundations, on which to build the Great Grid Upgrade.
It looks to me, that National Grid, RWE, Centrica, Iberdrola and others, by just doing what comes naturally have offered the next government a road to a future.
Ur will be interesting, what gets said before the election.
The Core Of Sunak’s Manifesto
I have a feeling, that the core of Sunak’s manifesto is a massive German project called H2ercules, which is intended to bring low-carbon hydrogen to industry in South Germany.
There will be a massive hydrogen hub at Wilhelmshaven on the North-Western coast, which is being built by Uniper, from which hydrogen will be imported and distributed.
I suspect that the Germans aim to source the hydrogen worldwide from Australia, the Middle East and Namibia. It would be brought in round the Cape by tanker.
But RWE, who are one of the UK’s largest electricity suppliers, are planning to deliver 7.2 GW of electricity in British waters on the Dogger Bank and North-East of Great Yarmouth.
Both wind farms would be difficult to deliver profitably to the UK, because Eastern England already has enough electricity and the Nimbies are objecting to more pylons.
I believe that RWE will build offshore electrolysers and coastal hydrogen tankers will take the hydrogen to Wilhelmshaven.
H2ercules will be fed with the hydrogen needed.
By the end of the next parliament, the Germans could be paying us substantial sums for green hydrogen, to decarbonise their industry.
Rishi Sunak hinted in his speech, that we will be exporting large amounts of energy.
Much of it will be in the form of green hydrogen to Germany.
If we need hydrogen for our industry, we would create it from some of our own wind farms.
RWE Goes For An Additional 10 GW Of Offshore Wind In UK Waters In 2030
This press release from RWE is entitled RWE And Masdar Join Forces To Develop 3 Gigawatts Of Offshore Wind Projects Off The UK Coast.
This is the last paragraph.
The UK plays a key role in RWE’s strategy to grow its offshore wind portfolio RWE is a leading partner in the delivery of the UK’s Net Zero ambitions and energy security, as well as in contributing to the UK build-out target for offshore wind of 50 GW by 2030. RWE already operates 10 offshore wind farms across the UK. Following completion of the acquisition of the three Norfolk offshore wind projects from Vattenfall announced at the end of 2023, RWE is developing nine offshore wind projects in the UK, representing a combined potential installed capacity of around 9.8 GW, with RWE’s pro rata share amounting to 7 GW. Furthermore, RWE is constructing the 1.4 GW Sofia offshore wind project in the North Sea off the UK’s east coast. RWE’s unparalleled track record of more than 20 years in offshore wind has resulted in 19 offshore wind farms in operation, with a goal to triple its global offshore wind capacity from 3.3 GW today to 10 GW in 2030.
Note.
- Nine offshore wind projects in the UK, representing a combined potential installed capacity of around 9.8 GW
- RWE are saying they intend to add 6.7 GW in 2030.
The eight offshore wind farms, that RWE are developing in UK waters would appear to be.
- Sofia – 1,400 MW
- Norfolk Boreas – 1380 MW
- Norfolk Vanguard East – 1380 MW
- Norfolk Vanguard West – 1380 MW
- Dogger Bank South – 3000 MW
- Awel y Môr – 500 MW
- Five Estuaries – 353 MW
- North Falls – 504 MW
This is a total of 9897 MW, which ties in well with RWE’s new capacity figure of 9.8 GW.
The Location Of RWE’s Offshore Wind Farms
RWE’s wind farms seem to fit in groups around the UK.
Dogger Bank
This wind farm is on the Dogger Bank.
- Dogger Bank South – 3000 MW – Planned
This wind farm would appear to be rather isolated in the middle of the North Sea.
RWE could have plans to extend it or even link it to other wind farms in the German area of the Dogger Bank.
Lincolnshire Coast
This wind farm is along the Lincolnshire Coast.
- Triton Knoll – 857 MW – 2022
As there probably isn’t much heavy industry, where Triton Knoll’s power comes ashore, this wind farm can provide the power needed in the area.
But any excess power in the area can be exported to Denmark through the Viking Link.
Norfolk Coast
These wind farms are along the Norfolk Coast.
- Norfolk Boreas – 1380 MW – Planned
- Norfolk Vanguard East – 1380 MW – Planned
- Norfolk Vanguard West – 1380 MW – Planned
These three wind farms will provide enough energy to provide the power for North-East Norfolk.
North Wales Coast
These wind farms are along the North Wales Coast.
- Awel y Môr – 500 MW – Planned
- Gwynt y Môr – 576 MW – 2015
- Rhyl Flats – 90 MW – 2009
- North Hoyle – 60 MW – 2003
These wind farms will provide enough energy for the North Wales Coast.
Any spare electricity can be stored in the 1.8 GW/9.1 GWh Dinorwig pumped storage hydroelectric power station.
Electric Mountain may have opened in 1984, but it is surely a Welsh giant decades ahead of its time.
Suffolk Coast
These wind farms are along the Suffolk Coast.
- Five Estuaries – 353 MW – Planned
- Galloper – 353 MW – 2018
- North Falls – 504 MW – Planned
These wind farms will provide enough energy for the Suffolk Coast, which except for the Haven Ports, probably doesn’t have many large electricity users.
But if the area is short of electricity, there will be Sizewell B nuclear power station to provide it.
Teesside
This wind farm is along the Teesside Coast
- Sofia – 1,400 MW – Planned
Teesside is a heavy user of electricity.
These six areas total as follows.
- Dogger Bank – 3,000 MW
- Lincolnshire Coast – 857 MW
- Norfolk Coast – 4140 MW
- North Wales Coast – 1226 MW
- Suffolk Coast – 1210 MW
- Teesside – 1,400 MW
Backup for these large clusters of wind farms for when the wind doesn’t blow will be provided as follows.
- Dogger Bank – Not provided
- Lincolnshire Coast- Interconnectors to Denmark and Scotland
- Norfolk Coast – Not provided
- North Wales Coast – Stored in Dinorwig pumped storage hydroelectric power station
- Suffolk Coast – Sizewell B and Sizewell C
- Teesside – Interconnectors to Norway and Scotland and Hartlepool nuclear power stations
Note.
- The interconnectors will typically have a 2 GW capacity.
- The 1.9 GW/9.1 GWh Dinorwig pumped storage hydroelectric power station must be one of the best wind farm backups in Europe.
There is a very solid level of integrated and connected assets that should provide a reliable power supply for millions of electricity users.
How Will Dogger Bank And The Norfolk Coast Wind Clusters Work Efficiently?
The Dogger Bank and the Norfolk Coast clusters will generate up to 3 and 4.14 GW respectively.
So what purpose is large amounts of electricity in the middle of the North Sea?
The only possible purpose will be to use giant offshore electrolysers to create hydrogen.
The hydrogen will then be transported to point of use by pipeline or tanker.
Feeding H2ercules
I described H2ercules in H2ercules.
H2ercules is an enormous project that will create the German hydrogen network.
The H2ercules web site, shows a very extensive project, as is shown by this map.
Note.
- Hydrogen appears to be sourced from Belgium, the Czech Republic, The Netherlands and Norway.
- RWE’s Dogger Bank South wind farm will be conveniently by the N of Norway.
- RWE’s Norfolk cluster of wind farms will be conveniently by the N of Netherlands.
- The Netherlands arrow points to the red circles of two hydrogen import terminals.
For Germany to regain its former industrial success, H2ercules will be needed to be fed with vast amounts of hydrogen.
And that hydrogen could be in large amounts from the UK sector of the North Sea.
Uniper’s Wilhelmshaven Hydrogen Hub
This page on the Uniper web site is entitled Green Wilhelmshaven: To New Horizons
This Uniper graphic shows a summary of gas and electricity flows in the Wilhelmshaven Hydrogen Hub.
Note.
- Ammonia can be imported, distributed by rail or ships, stored or cracked to provide hydrogen.
- Wilhelmshaven can handle the largest ships.
- Offshore wind energy can generate hydrogen by electrolysis.
- Hydrogen can be stored in underground salt caverns.
I suspect hydrogen could also be piped in from an electrolyser in the East of England or shipped in by a hydrogen tanker.
All of this is well-understood technology.
Sunak’s Magic Money Tree
Rishi Sunak promised a large giveaway of tax in his manifesto for the 2024 General Election.
As we are the only nation, who can provide the colossal amounts of hydrogen the Germans will need for H2ercules, I am sure we will be well paid for it.
A few days ago we celebrated D-Day, where along with the Americans and the Canadians, we invaded Europe.
Now eighty years later, our hydrogen is poised to invade Europe again, but this time for everybody’s benefit.
This document on the Policy Mogul web site is entitled Rishi Sunak – Conservative Party Manifesto Speech – Jun 11.
These are three paragraphs from the speech.
We don’t just need military and border security. As Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has shown, we need energy security too. It is only by having reliable, home-grown sources of energy that we can deny dictators the ability to send our bills soaring. So, in our approach to energy policy we will put security and your family finances ahead of unaffordable eco zealotry.
Unlike Labour we don’t believe that we will achieve that energy security via a state-controlled energy company that doesn’t in fact produce any energy. That will only increase costs, and as Penny said on Friday there’s only one thing that GB in Starmer and Miliband’s GB Energy stands for, and that’s giant bills.
Our clear plan is to achieve energy security through new gas-powered stations, trebling our offshore wind capacity and by having new fleets of small modular reactors. These will make the UK a net exporter of electricity, giving us greater energy independence and security from the aggressive actions of dictators . Now let me just reiterate that, with our plan, we will produce enough electricity to both meet our domestic needs and export to our neighbours. Look at that. A clear, Conservative plan not only generating security, but also prosperity for our country.
I believe that could be Rishi’s Magic Money Tree.
Especially, if the energy is exported through electricity interconnectors or hydrogen or ammonia pipelines and tankers.
Will This Be A Party Anyone Can Join?
Other wind farm clusters convenient for the H2ercules hydrogen import terminals on the North-West German coast include.
- Dogger Bank – SSE, Equinor – 5008 MW
- East Anglian – Iberdrola – 3786 MW
- Hornsea – Ørsted – 8056 MW
That totals to around 16.5 GW of wind power.
I can see offshore electrolysers producing hydrogen all around the coasts of the British Isles.
What Happens If Sunak Doesn’t Win The Election?
RWE and others have signed contracts to develop large wind farms around our shores.
They didn’t do that out of the goodness of their hearts, but to make money for themselves and their backers and shareholders.
Conclusion
I believe a virtuous circle will develop.
- Electricity will be generated in the UK.
- Some will be converted to hydrogen.
- Hydrogen and electricity will be exported to the highest bidders.
- European industry will, be powered by British electricity and hydrogen.
- Money will be paid to the UK and the energy suppliers for the energy.
The more energy we produce, the more we can export.
In the future more interconnectors, wind farms and electrolysers will be developed.
Everybody will benefit.
As the flows grow, this will certainly become a Magic Money Tree, for whoever wins the election.
UK Offshore Wind In 2030
The next general election is likely to be held in 2029, so how much wind energy will be added during the next Parliament?
The Current Position
The Wikipedia entry for the list of operational wind farms in the UK, says this.
In October 2023, there were offshore wind farms consisting of 2,695 turbines with a combined capacity of 14,703 megawatts.
Due To Be Commissioned In 2024
It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2024.
- Neart Na Gaoithe – 450 MW – Fixed
- Doggerbank A – 1235 MW – Fixed
- Doggerbank B – 1235 MW – Fixed
This would add 2920 MW to give a total of 17,623 MW.
Due To Be Commissioned In 2025
It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2025.
- Moray West – 882 MW – Fixed
- Doggerbank C – 1218 MW – Fixed
This would add 2100 MW to give a total of 19,723 MW.
Due To Be Commissioned In 2026
It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2026.
- Sofia – 1400 MW – Fixed
- East Anglia 3 – 1372 MW – Fixed
- East Anglia 1 North – 800 MW – Fixed
- East Anglia 2 – 900 MW – Fixed
- Pentland – 100 MW – Floating
This would add 4572 MW to give a total of 24,295 MW.
Due To Be Commissioned In 2027
It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2027.
- Hornsea 3 – 2852 MW – Fixed
- Norfolk Boreas – 1380 MW – Fixed
- Llŷr 1 – 100 MW – Floating
- Llŷr 2 – 100 MW – Floating
- Whitecross – 100 MW – Floating
This would add 4532 MW to give a total of 28,827 MW.
Due To Be Commissioned In 2028
It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2028.
- Morecambe – 480 MW – Fixed
This would add 480 MW to give a total of 29,307 MW.
Due To Be Commissioned In 2029
It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2029.
- West Of Orkney – 2000 MW – Fixed
This would add 2000 MW to give a total of 31,307 MW.
Due To Be Commissioned In 2030
It would appear these wind farms will come on-line in 2030.
- Ramplion 2 Extension – 1200 MW – Fixed
- Norfolk Vanguard East – 1380 MW – Fixed
- Norfolk Vanguard West – 1380 MW – Fixed
- Awel y Môr – 1100 MW – Fixed
- Berwick Bank – 4100 MW – Fixed
- Outer Dowsing – 1500 MW – Fixed
- Hornsea 4 – 2600 MW – Fixed
- Caledonia – 2000 MW – Fixed
- N3 Project – 495 MW – Fixed/Floating
This would add 15755 MW to give a total of 47.062 MW.
Capacity Summary
- 2023 – None – 14703 MW
- 2024 – 2920 MW – 17,623 MW
- 2025 – 2100 MW – 19,723 MW
- 2026 – 4572 MW – 24,295 MW
- 2027 – 4532 MW- 28,827 MW
- 2028 – 480 MW – 29,307 MW
- 2029 – 2000 MW – 31,307 MW
- 2030 – 15755 MW – 47,062 MW
Note that capacity has increased more than threefold.
If we assume the following.
- New wind farms are commissioned throughout the year.
- 14703 MW of wind power, with all our gas-fired, nuclear and onshore wind farms is enough to power the UK.
- The average capacity factor is 45 %.
- The strike price is £35/MWh.
The levels I have set are deliberately on the low side.
The amount of energy and cash flow generated by new wind farms in a year can be calculated as follows.
{Average New Capacity In Year}= ({Capacity at Year Start}+{Capacity at Year End})/2-14703
{Extra Electricity Generated In Year}= {Average New Capacity In Year}*365*24*{Capacity Factor}
{Cash Flow}={Extra Electricity Generated In Year} * {Strike Price}
The following figures are obtained.
- 2024 – 1460 MW – 5,755,320 MWh – £ 201,436,200
- 2025 – 3970 MW – 15,649,740 MWh – £ 547,740,900
- 2026 – 7306 MW – 28,800,252 MWh – £ 1,008,008,820
- 2027 – 11858 MW – 46,744,236 MWh – £ 1,636,048,260
- 2028 – 14,364 MW – 56,622,888 MWh – £ 1,981,801,080
- 2029 – 15,604 MW – 61,510,968 MWh – £ 2,152,883,880
- 3030 – 23,931.5 MW – 94,337,973 MWh – £ 3,301,829,055
Nate.
- The first column is the cumulative amount of new capacity about the 14,703 MW in December 2023.
- The second column is the extra electricity generated in the year over December 2023.
- The third column is the extra cash flow in the year over December 2023.
As the installed base of wind farms increases, the cash flow increases.
It should also be noted that there are a large number of wind farms, already pencilled in for 2031-2035.
What Will We Do With All This Extra Electricity?
We need more industries that will consume a lot of electricity, like cement, chemicals and steel.
But I suspect that the easiest thing to do, is to convert the excess electricity to hydrogen and export it to the Continent and especially the Germans by pipeline or tanker.
Conclusion
Whoever wins this year’s General Election, should have a growing source of revenue for the life of the parliament and beyond.
Reform UK leader Richard Tice To Stand In Boston And Skegness
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC,
This is the sub-heading.
The leader of Reform UK has announced he is to stand as a candidate in Boston and Skegness at the general election.
Anr this is the first paragraph.
Richard Tice announced his intention to stand in the Lincolnshire constituency on social media on Thursday morning.
This article on The Times is entitled What are Reform UK’s Policies — And How Is The Party Polling?
The article has these two paragraphs on energy, decarbonisation and net-zero.
Energy and net zero is another major area of focus. Tice has referred to net zero as “net stupid” and wants to accelerate the granting of oil and gas licences in the North Sea.
Reform has said all existing carbon emissions targets should be abandoned, due to what it says is an unfair burden being placed on taxpayers and consumers.
I shall do some arithmetic to give a few pointers to the constituency he hopes to win.
The Boston and Skegness constituency is a large green energy hub, where in a few years electricity from various source will be collected for distribution to East Anglia and the South of England.
Currently, in operation, under construction or in planning, are the following sources of green electricity.
- Viking Link is a 1.4 GW interconnector between Bicker Fen in Lincolnshire and Denmark.
- EGL3 is a 2 GW interconnector between Lincolnshire and Peterhead in Scotland.
- EGL4 is a 2 GW interconnector between Lincolnshire and Westfield in Scotland.
- Lincs is a 270 MW wind farm.
- Lynn and Inner Dowsing is a 194 MW wind farm.
- Outer Dowsing is a 1500 MW wind farm.
- Triton Knoll is a 857 MW wind farm.
- Race Bank is a 573 MW wind farm.
Note.
- The three interconnectors can send electricity in both directions.
- The wind farms are in North-South order.
- There would appear to be space in the sea for more wind farms.
- The 950 MW Spalding gas-fired power station is available locally, when the wind is on strike.
- The owners of Spalding power station are rumoured to be putting a large battery alongside the power station.
The totals are as follows.
- 1.4 GW – Interconnector to Denmark
- 4 GW – Interconnector to Scotland
- 3.4 GW – Wind farms
- 1 GW – Gas-fired power station.
These total up to 9.8 GW of power.
Conclusion
Consider.
- It would appear that Richard Tice of Reform UK, has decided to stand in a constancy with one of the highest levels of green energy and energy security in the UK.
- It is also likely to be a constituency, which in the future will benefit from investment and employment, as more wind farms are developed in the North Sea.
It looks to me, that he’s a politician with very little mathematical ability.
An Early General Election
One thing that worries me about an early election, is it gives Putin less time to plan and execute his dirty work.
So he might do something a lot more extreme!
So make sure your cybersecurity is up to date!
The Anonymous Widower 