Sadiq Khan Backs Gatwick
This article on the BBC is entitled Sadiq Khan urges swift decision on Gatwick expansion.
Doesn’t most of those living and/or working in london and the South East?
This is said in the article.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan has urged Theresa May to make a quick decision on airport expansion in the South East.
Mr Khan said the new Prime Minister should make the final decision on whether a new runway should be built at Gatwick or Heathrow a top priority.
This decision has been kicked further into the long grass for years, ever since Harold Wilson cancelled Maplin Airport in 1971.
With Brexit on the near hotizon, what better way to say the UK and London is open for business, than by deciding on the next runway in the South East.
I don’t believe Heathrow should build another runway for the following reasons.
- Building another runway would cause endless problems as the M25 is diverted., if what happened when it was diverted for Terminal 5 is anything to go by.
- Gatwick will have better rail connections.
- Heathrow has annoyed a lot of influential and powerful people and organisations in West London.
- The site is too small, even after demolishing the odd village.
- I don’t believe they’ll solve the pollution problem.
- I don’t like approaching the airport over Central London.
- It is the more expensive option.
You can probably say similar things for Gatwick.
But at least Gatwick’s owners don’t seem to be as greedy and uncooperative as those at Heathrow.
At least Gatwick’s plans seem well advanced, as this visualisation shows.
Gatwick With Two Runways
This appears to me to be a good efficient design.
- The new runway is on the left.
- It looks like the secondary North runway, used when the current main runway is under msaintenance, is still in place.
- Between the two runways is a massive new terminal.
- Note the station in the bottom right corner, with the Brighton Main Line going across.
- The red line is a shuttle, that takes passengers between the current North and Main terminals, the new terminal and the train station.
- Little demolition seems to have taken place.
But in some ways, where the runway is built is irrelevant, if Crossrail and the improved Thameslink work as they say on their tins.
These two high-capacity railways will give Heathrow and Gatwick a shared terminal called London, that unfortunately for them, they will share with Stansted, Luton, HS2 and Eurostar.
I feel though, that because of Brexit, we’ll see a decision before the end of the year and possibly in the next few weeks.
British governments have fiddled for far too long!
Heathrow Expansion Under Legal Threat
Heathrow Airport will look back on March 2016, as very much a mense horribilis.
After the cracks in the Class 332 trains, which led to to all sorts of problems with Heathrow Express, the airport can’t be pleased with this story on the BBC web site, entitled Heathrow third runway: Councils in legal threat over plan. This is said.
Four Tory councils have threatened to sue the government if plans for a third runway at Heathrow Airport go ahead.
Solicitors acting for Wandsworth, Hillingdon, Richmond and Windsor and Maidenhead councils have written to the prime minister saying expansion would be “irrational or otherwise unlawful”.
What is surprising about this story, is that only four councils are mentioned.
But the Councils involved, are the closest ones to the Airport and the ones likely to get the most complaints from residents. The Airport is actually in Hillingdon.
Given that the current Mayor of London and nearly all candidates for the Mayoral Election in May, are against the third runway, I would have thought a few other councils could jump on the bandwagon. And not just Tory ones!
Is there a Council in London and the South East that actually wants Heathrow to have a third runway?
According to Wikipedia, Slough is in favour.
In The Rise Of Gatwick Airport, I said this.
I am coming more to the conclusion, that despite the report of the Airports Commission, Heathrow Airport will never have a third runway, but Gatwick may get a second one, as they can start to plan, for when the deal to not build a second runway with Sussex County Council, runs out in 2019.
I think as time goes on, it will be even more unlikely that Heathrow will get another runway.
Heathrow’s only hope is that after this year’s elections and the Brexit vote, David Cameron decides to allow the runway, as it won’t affect him in 2020.
The Rise Of Gatwick Airport
I used to hate Gatwick Airport, but now on my short flights to Europe, I often find myself using the Sussex airport, as it is usually an easier train ride, than Heathrow or Stansted.
The South East’s Next Runway
I am coming more to the conclusion, that despite the report of the Airports Commission, Heathrow Airport will never have a third runway, but Gatwick may get a second one, as they can start to plan, for when the deal to not build a second runway with Sussex County Council, runs out in 2019.
- No serious candidate for London Mayor would win an election if they proposed a third runway at Heathrow.
- Heathrow is surrounded by housing, whereas Gatwick is surrounded by more much open countryside.
- The protests over another runway at Heathrow would be enormous.
- In a few years time, Gatwick will have the better rail links and fifteen million people will live within an hour’s train journey of the Airport.
But the main reason is that building a second runway at Gatwick will be a lot easier. Just look at this Google Map of Gatwick Airport.
Gatwick Airport
Note the following about the map and the expansion of Gatwick Airport.
- The second runway will be built to the South of the existing runway.
- There doesn’t appear to be much housing in the area of the proposed new runway.
- The M23 Motorway and the Brighton Main Line run North-South to the East of the Airport.
- A third terminal would be built near to the existing railway line.
- Note in the map, that in addition to the single runway, the taxiway can be used as a runway, if say the runway is under repair or blocked.
The second runway would increase the capacity of the Airport to over 80 million passengers a year.
I’ve always believed that Gatwick could also build a North-South runway over the M23. This was proposed in the 1980s by pilots and with the capability of aircraft increasing all the time, I don’t rule it out at some time in the future.
The Biggest Airport Terminal In The World
I have argued in the past, that when Crossrail and Thameslink are completed, then the following airports and international rail stations will be connected together.
- Heathrow Airport
- Gatwick Airport
- Stansted Airport
- Luton Airport
- St. Pancras International station
- Ebbsfleet International station
There will also be an easy link to HS2 for the North and Scotland.
As passengers will be increasingly savvy, in many cases they will organise their travel to what is best for them and not the travel agents, airlines and the airports.
I believe that London will sell itself, as a place to break that long journey, just as Singapore and Dubai have done for years.
As the North of England, Scotland and Wales always say, London always wins!
But then London is the capital of the world!
Rail Links To Heathrow Airport
Crossrail should give Heathrow Airport a world-class link to Central London, if they can sort out Crossrail’s access problems to the airport, that I wrote about in Heathrow Express And Crossrail.
The over-priced joke that is Heathrow Express will be on borrowed time once Crossrail opens in 2019.
But there will still be problems with rail access to Heathrow Airport.
- Terminal 5 will not be connected to Crossrail.
- Changing terminals at Heathrow is a chore.
- Heathrow Express only takes passengers to and from Paddington.
- There is no direct rail access to Reading for the West.
- For some parts of London, the Piccadilly Line will still be the best way to go to and from the Airport.
- Access to Continental rail services from Heathrow will be difficult.
You would never describe Heathrow as fully integrated into the the UK’s rail network.
Heathrow will of course argue, that links to Central London are excellent and that those continuing their journey will just change terminals and be on their way.
Obviously, improvements will come, but nothing important for passengers will happen, until Heathrow puts passengers first and drops it’s arrogant attitude, which thinks it is London’s only airport.
Rail Links To Stansted Airport
Stansted Airport has the Stansted Express from Liverpool Street, which runs about four times an hour.
I believe in the next few years, the following will happen.
- Crossrail will arrive at Liverpool Street in 2019, giving one-change journeys to and from Heathrow.
- The West Anglia Main Line will be four-tracked, allowing faster Stansted Express services.
- An improved rail service will be provided to the increasingly important rail hub at Cambridge.
- An extra Stansted Express service will run to Stratford via the new Lea Bridge station.
- Stansted Express will probably get new air passenger-friendly trains.
But the biggest improvement of rail services to Stansted Airport will come, when and if Crossrail 2 is built, as this will make travel to the airport from all over London a lot easier, with just a single change at Tottenham Hale or Broxbourne.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see some Crossrail 2 trains extended to Stansted. After all, the tracks exist and if the airport said to Transport for London, here’s a few million from our petty cash to run Crossrail 2 to Stansted, I’m sure TfL would oblige!
This would give Stansted Airport one-change services to Gatwick, Heathrow and Luton airports, Continental Rail Services and HS2.
Rail Links To Luton Airport
Luton Airport has its own Thameslink station at Luton Airport Parkway.
But also it has plans to expand, as is reported in this article in the Daily Mail, entitled Luton Airport reveals plans for direct rail line that would cut train journey from central London to just 20 minutes.
I think that Luton Airport could use something like Class 387/2 trains, as used on Gatwick Express with an IPEMU capability, so that they could use a branch line without any electrification to underneath the airport terminal.
Rail Links To Gatwick Airport
I found this article in TravelWeekly, which is entitled Gatwick outlines plans for a train departure to London every three minutes.
It gives a very good summary of the train services that will run to Gatwick after Thameslink is completed.
The planned hourly timetable would see:
• Four dedicated Gatwick Express trains to Victoria
• Six trains to Victoria – originating from East and West Coastway, Horsham/Littlehampton, and Three Bridges/Haywards Heath
• Four trains to Bedford via London Bridge – originating from Gatwick and Brighton
• Two trains to Cambridge via London Bridge – originating from Brighton
• Two trains to Peterborough via London Bridge – originating from Horsham
• Two trains to London Bridge – originating from Littlehampton/West Coastway, and Haywards Heath/Three Bridges.
That is a total of twenty trains to and from London and beyond and most of the South Coast from Southampton to Hastings.
How many better rail-connected airports are there anywhere in the world?
The article also quotes Guy Stephenson, the Airport’s Chief Commercial Officer as saying.
The new high frequency service that will serve Gatwick will transform rail journeys for our passengers, with capacity doubling and a train to London every three minutes.
Crucially, the new trains will be much more reliable and will be stacked with amenities suited to the needs of air travellers. Combined with robust new track and signalling systems, Gatwick’s passengers will experience a really pleasant and dependable service.
Overall, the improvements to Gatwick’s rail service means that 15 million people will be brought within 60 minutes of Gatwick by rail – the best reach of any UK airport,
Reading the article, you might think that Thameslink should be called Gatwicklink!
According to this Press Release on the Gatwick Airport web site, Gatwick Airport are going to spend £120.5million on updating the rail station. This is an architect’s impression of the new station.
I also think that Gatwick could extend their Gatwick Express services.
I think we can also see development of Airport services to and from Gatwick Airport station based on the following existing services.
- Reading via the North Downs Line.
- Tonbridge and Ashford International via the Redhill to Tonbridge Line.
Will we be seeing a second Gatwick Express route from Ashford or Ebbsfleet to Reading via Gatwick Airport?
Consider.
- It would inevitably get known as the M25-on-rails.
- It gives a large number of passengers a way to get to Gatwick and Continental Rail Services without going through Central London.
- It could serve Heathrow, if they got their act together.
- Surprisingly, I think this route will be quicker to go between Reading and Gatwick, than using Crossrail and Thameslink with a change at Farringdon.
- The trains for such a service could be the same as the new Class 387/2 Gatwick Expresses, but with an IPEMU capability.
But it wouldn’t be just an Airport service, as I suspect that given adequate parking at stations, it would become a valuable cross-country route linking the rail hubs of Ebbsfleet, Gatwick and Reading. After all, North of London, the East West Rail Link is being created from Reading to Cambridge via Oxford, Milton Keynes and Bedford.
Southern also run a service from Milton Keynes to South Croydon via the West London Line. In the future this service will serve Old Oak Common station on Crossrail, HS2, the West Coast Main Line and the North London Line.
So will this service be extended from South Croydon to Gatwick and become a third Gatwick Express service?
These two additional Gatwick Express services would greatly increase or ease the airport’s links across the wider South East and to HS2 services out of Euston.
The only problem, is the overcrowding on the Brighton Main Line.
Conclusion
Gatwick will become the best rail-connected airport in the UK and will get a second runway!
While Cameron Dithers About London, Manchester Decides!
I picked up two reports on airports this week.
This report on the BBC is entitled Heathrow airport delay gutless, says business group and talks about a lot of the fallout from David Cameron’s decision not to decide on a new runway for the South-East.
In contrast, you have this report in the Manchester Evening News entitled New images shows possible high-tech future of Manchester Airport’s check-in after ‘Super Terminal’ transformation, which describes the airports expansion plans.
Expanding Heathrow seems to generate controversy in super-tanker loads, whereas Manchester doesn’t sem to attract anything like the same level, even when you take the different sizes into account.
Look at this Google Map of Heathrow.
Heathrow Airport
Compare it with this one of Manchester Airport.
Manchester Airport
I don’t know for sure, but it would appear from these maps and larger ones, that Heathrow has used up much more of the available space around the runways, whereas Manchester hasn’t!
When Heathrow wanted to build Terminal 5, they had to move a sewage works, and another terminal would be difficult on the same site. Manchester has some space left.
So any expansion at Heathrow needs to expand the airport site, which is where a lot of the opposition comes from.
In my view the only way to expand Heathrow is to make better use of the current runways and the terminals. But that can only go on for so long!
And would the locals object to more landings and take-offs? You bet they would!
David Cameron is no fool and he knows that with the opposition of Boris Johnson and nearly all the candidates for the London Mayor against Heathrow, that it will never gain a third runway.
I hate to look backwards but the Roskill Commission of the 1960s and their eventual decision by a roundabout route was for an airport on Maplin Sands to the East of Southend.
But Harold Wilson’s government cancelled this airport, just as they did the Picc-Vic Tunnel in Manchester and improvement of the rail lines across the Pennines.
In my view as air traffic increases, Heathrow needs to expand to just survive, as there is competition all around.
- Schipol, Paris Charles de Gaulle and even Manchester competing for the interchange traffic.
- Trains to the Continent
- Birmingham, Gatwick, Luton, Southend, Stansted and others nibbling Heathrow’s markets.
- HS2
- Passengers are increasingly savvy and go from any convenient airport, using an acceptable airline at the right time and price.
- Internet technology will guide people to the best and cheapest way to travel from say Cambridge to Boston. An expensive Heathrow could be its own worst enemy.
- Other airports will offer better car-friendly solutions.
So as it can’t expand, due to the politicians and local residents, Heathrow must accept that it can’t and it must prepare itself for downgrade to just an airport for London and those living locally.
It also means, the South East must eventually find another site for a new airport to replace Heathrow.
The only place is the Thames Estuary!
So why didn’t the Davies Airport Commission recommend the Boris Island?
Howard Davies is a man of the City Establishment, who are very conservative with a small c and love the convenience, which Crossrail will make better, of Heathrow. How many submissions were against the Boris Island because it would mean too much change in their business?
But a properly designed Thames Hub Airport, could also incorporate the new Thames Barrier and Lower Thames Crossing that London needs.
To many of London’s residents and a lot of their politicians, it is a no-brainer! But for the City, only an expanded Heathrow will do!
So how will Manchester Airport affect London’s Airport mess in the future.
I believe that Manchester Airport will start to dominate air transport in the North of England and Scotland, just as Heathrow used to dominate the South.
- It has space for new terminals and aircraft and car parking.
- A rail network is developing to bring passengers to the airport from all over the North and Scotland.
- HS2 and probably HS3 are coming to the Airport.
- When it needs to expand it decides to and does!
It could also be combined with Liverpool Airport using a very high speed train, if it needed more runway capacity. It’s just forty-four kilometres as a Maglev would fly at 200 kilometres per hour, up the Mersey. Manchester and Liverpool airports could work together, much better than Heathrow can work with either Gatwick, Luton or Stansted.
So will an expanded Manchester Airport take a big bite out of Heathrow’s traffic? You bet it will. Especially, if Heathrow continues to not expand.
I think we should start to plan a Thames Estuary Airport now, even if we don’t built it for twenty years.. If we don’t, then when we need to start building, we’ll take another fifty years to make a decision.
Or we could always do what we’re doing now and let market forces, various interests and passenger choice decide our airports policy?
And as ever, engineers and architects, will improve aircraft and airports, so that we find them acceptable.
The airports problem won’t be solved until perhaps in about 2060, when the Dutch get fed up with Schipol and we join with them and the Belgians to create an airport perhaps slightly east of the Thames Estuary connected to various countries by high speed rail lines. It could be called Canute International!
The only certainty, is that I won’t be here to see it built!
Gatwick Makes A Pitch For The Third Runway
Canary Wharf tube station is all decked out in adverts for expanding Gatwick.
It’s certainly a tough fight between the two airports about which one gets developed.
On the ninth of October, I had a letter published in The Times, under the title, Plane or Train?
Sir, The closure of Richard Branson’s Little Red airline (News, Oct 7) comes at a time when people in their millions are rediscovering trains, raising a question over the attraction and viability of short-haul air services. Together with the introduction of aircraft that can carry up to a third more passengers, this leads me to wonder whether we need new runway capacity.
Effectively, it is a shorter reworking of some of the arguments in Hot Air Over London’s Airports.
To also stoke up the fire, Heathrow Hub were also advertising heavily in the papers at the weekend.
As I said in Hot Air Over London’s Airports, I quite like this proposal. This liking gets bigger every time I read about it.
One thing their reports and all the other proposals don’t talk about for obvious reasons, is the unpredictability of some of the world’s worst air accidents. Just read up on the circumstances that led to the Tenerife Airport Disaster.
For this and other reasons, I would leave the decisions to the professionals. And they will probably say that some proposals have a bigger safety margin than others!
But I still feel my last statement in the Hot Air post might be correct.
But I have this sneaking suspicion that no new runways will be built or extended and in twenty years time or so, we’ll wonder what all the fuss was about.
Passengers will just choose their airports with more care and airports will be competing with us with better and better facilities and more point-to-point flights.
But then some politician might want to add his name to a new London airport.
The Anonymous Widower 