Silvertown Tunnel Works – 24th September 2023
I took these pictures of the Silvertown Tunnel works on the North Bank of the Thames today.
I was on a train going to Woolwich Arsenal.
What Is The Silvertown Tunnel?
The title of this section, is the same as that of this article on the Londonist, which is an excellent description of the Silvertown Tunnel.
The article says this about tolls.
The new tunnel will require you to part with some pounds if you want to use it. Despite the consultation on this taking place a decade ago, the final details have yet to be publicised. We can expect something similar to the Dartford Crossing (currently £2.50 for cars etc, free for motorbikes/mopeds).
As there is a mayoral election next year, I doubt that Sadiq Khan will announce the charge on the Silvertown and Blackwall Tunnels before the election.
Let’s Play Accountants
This is a paragraph in the Londonist Article.
Construction of the tunnel is eating up something like £1.2 billion (2020 estimate). It’ll then cost another estimated £1 billion over 25 years to pay for maintenance, financing and operation. Riverlinx paid up-front costs and will be paid back by TfL through money collected from tolls.
The running costs would appear to be a billion over 25 years, which is £ 40,000,000 in a year.
This is said on this page on the Greater London Assembly web site.
Blackwall tunnels (northbound and southbound) each carry approximately 50,000 vehicles per day in only two lanes of traffic.
That means that each tunnel handles approximately 18,250,000 vehicles per year.
Dartford Crossing charges are according to the Wikipedia entry are as follows.
- Cars, motorhomes, small minibuses – £ 2.50
- 2-axle buses, coaches, vans, goods – £ 3.00
- Multi-axle goods, coaches – £ 6.00
The Wikipedia entry also says this about the capacity and traffic through and over the Dartford Crossing.
The design capacity is 135,000 vehicles per day, but in practice the crossing carries around 160,000.
My good friend; Bob from the 1970s had an impeccable cv.
- Chief Accountant of Vickers.
- Chief Management Accountant of Lloyds Bank.
He was also one of two outstanding practical accountants I have known.
Several of his practical tips on how to handle money in computers, ended up in Artemis; the project management computer system, I wrote in the 1970.
Bob and I would solve problems in Mother Bunches Wine Bar and I suspect, we’d come to the conclusion, that an average charge of £3 per vehicle will be charged in the Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels.
I also believe from my fluid flow experience, that a proportion of the excess traffic through and over the Dartford Crossing will divert to the new Silvertown Tunnel.
- Together the Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels will have four lanes in both directions.
- The Silvertown Tunnel will hopefully designed to modern standards and be more free-flowing, than the Blackwall.
- Sat-navs will direct drivers to the quickest routes.
Just as water finds its own level, an equilibrium will develop between the flows.
- I suspect that during the day, the flow over the Dartford Crossing will drop to the design capacity of 135,000
- At night, will vehicles divert through the free-flowing Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels?
- Will those living in North Central London inside the North Circular Road drive through the Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels?
- Will the free-flowing Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels encourage people crossing the Thames to use their car, rather than the train, as the car is more convenient and the toll will be less than the train fare?
- We should also beware that new roads, railways and tunnels generate new traffic, that no-one predicts.
My feeling is that combined traffic through the four lanes of the Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels will be upwards of seventy thousand per day.
I can now calculate revenue for different levels of combined traffic through the Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels.
- 40,000 vehicles in each direction per day is a total of 29,200,000 vehicles per year, which would raise £ 87.6 million per year in toll charges.
- 50,000 vehicles in each direction per day is a total of 36,500,000 vehicles per year, which would raise £ 109.5 million per year in toll charges.
- 60,000 vehicles in each direction per day is a total of 43,800,000 vehicles per year, which would raise £ 131.4 million per year in toll charges.
- 70,000 vehicles in each direction per day is a total of 51,100,000 vehicles per year, which would raise £ 153.3 million per year in toll charges.
- 80,000 vehicles in each direction per day is a total of 58.400,000 vehicles per year, which would raise £ 175.2 million per year in toll charges.
I am assuming the following.
- All days of a 365-day year have similar traffic.
- Everybody pays without fuss, by technology like number-plate recognition.
- The average toll chare paid is £ 3.
I am drawn to the conclusion, that the contract signed between Transport for London and Riverlinx, is a licence to print money.
Even, if the tunnels only attract 40-50,000 vehicles per day, the revenue is way in excess of the £40 million needed for maintenance, financing and operation of the Silvertown Tunnel.
I have a few further thoughts and questions.
Who Are Riverlinx?
This is said on the About Roverlinx page of the Riverlinx web site.
TfL awarded Riverlinx SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) the contract for financing and overseeing the design, build and maintenance of the Silvertown Tunnel in 2019.
The Riverlinx CJV (Construction Joint Venture) is contracted by TfL and Riverlinx SPV to complete the design and construction works, delivering the Silvertown Tunnel on time and on budget.
Riverlinx CJV is a joint venture, a partnership bringing together international, market leading expertise from three civil engineering and construction companies: BAM Nuttall, Ferrovial Construction and SK ecoplant.
In collaboration with TfL, our supply chain and other key stakeholders in the project, Riverlinx CJV will complete construction of the Silvertown Tunnel in Spring 2025.
Note.
- BAM Nuttall is a construction and civil engineering company, that is a subsidiary of the Dutch Royal BAM Group.
- Ferrovial Construction is the construction subsidiary of Spanish company; Ferrovial.
- SK ecoplant is a subsidiary of the South Korean conglomorate; SK Group.
These companies should be capable of building the Silvertown Tunnel.
Where Will The Money To Build The Tunnel Come From?
In World’s Largest Wind Farm Attracts Huge Backing From Insurance Giant, using an article in The Times, I explain how Aviva invest our pensions and insurance money in wind farms.
Strangely, a tolled tunnel is a bit like a wind farm financially, in that if it’s working and the wind is blowing or the traffic is coming, it will continue to generate an income.
Built by quality construction companies, as most tunnels are, they will be the sort of investment, that would satisfy the Avivas of this world.
Will Riverlinx Get All The Tolls From The Tunnel?
Nothing is said about how the excess of income over expenditure will go.
I suspect, as the project is being designed, financed and built by Riverlinx, that they will not go unrewarded.
Will The Mayor Set The Toll Charges?
I suspect that the Mayor and TfL will set the charges.
These are some figures with different charges for 70,000 vehicles in each direction per day or a total of 51,100,000 vehicles per year.
- £3 in each direction would raise £ 153.3 million per year in toll charges.
- £4 in each direction would raise £ 204.4 million per year in toll charges.
- £5 in each direction would raise £ 255.5 million per year in toll charges.
- £6 in each direction would raise £ 306.6 million per year in toll charges.
Note.
- Some of the papers are talking of a four pound charge.
- A pound increase may not be much to the average driver, but they will certainly mount up.
Higher toll charges could be used by an unscrupulous Mayor to deter vehicles entering Central London or nudge people towards public transport.
What Happens If The Tunnel Springs A Leak?
I can remember the following tunnels being built under the Thames in my lifetime.
- Blackwall Tunnel – second bore
- Dartford Tunnel
- DLR to Greenwich and Lewisham
- DLR to Woolwich
- Elizabeth Line to Woolwich
- Jubilee Line – four crossings
- Victoria Line to Vauxhall
None of these seven seems to have sprung a leak recently. And neither have the older Victorian tunnels.
Tunnels with an income stream, appear to be a good risk, if they don’t spring a leak.
But London tunnels don’t seem to have a high likelihood of leaking.
Fines
Fines could be a problem, but this article on Kent Online, which is entitled Dartford Crossing Continues To Generate more Than One-Third Of Income From Fines As Profits Total More Than £100m, says otherwise.
Conclusion
This would appear to be a low risk venture and I suspect it will make Riverlinx and TfL a lot of money.
High Speed Two To Manchester
There has been a lot of speculation about the Northern end of High Speed Two, so I might as well add sort out a few facts and add a bit of speculation of my own.
The Current Manchester Piccadilly Services
Currently, there are three trains per hour (tph) between London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly.
The services stop as follows.
- Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport
- Nuneaton, Stoke-on-Trent and Stockport
- Stafford, Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport
Note.
- One service goes via Crewe.
- Two services go via Stoke-on-Trent.
- All services go via Stockport.
- A London and Manchester Piccadilly train could go via Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Rugby, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport.
- A London and Manchester Piccadilly train could go via Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport.
The two trains detailed would mean that Manchester wouldn’t lose any connectivity.
I would expect that Manchester Piccadilly needs at least three tph to and from London.
This graphic shows High Speed Two services after Phase 2b is completed.
Note.
- Services shown in blue are run by High Speed Two Full Size trains.
- Services shown in yellow are run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- Full Size Services will only run to Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly after Phase 2b is completed to Manchester Piccadilly.
- Classic-Compatible Services will be able to run to to Manchester Piccadilly after Phase 2a is completed.
- Two London and Manchester Piccadilly trains will call at just Old Oak Common and Manchester Airport.
- A third London and Manchester Piccadilly train will call at Old Oak Common, Birmingham International and Manchester Airport.
- Two Birmingham Curzon Street and Manchester Piccadilly trains will call at just Manchester Airport.
- Despite Wilmslow and Stockport being shown in the list of stations on the left hand side of the graphic, no High Speed Two services appear to call at the two stations.
The graphic of High Speed Two services also shows these Full-Size services to Manchester Piccadilly.
- Three tph to London Euston
- Two tph to Birmingham Curzon Street
Some or all of these services will surely be run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
What services will run to Manchester between the opening of Phase 2a and the opening of Phase 2b?
I will now give some possibilities for services.
London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport
I shall look at the 07:33 train to Manchester Piccadilly on the 20th September 2023.
- It was a service via Stafford, Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport
- It was a nine-car Class 390 train or Pendolino, which left on time.
- Euston and Manchester Piccadilly are 188.9 miles apart.
- The train called at Crewe at 09:08 and left at 09:10.
- The average speed between London Euston and Crewe is 70.7 mph.
- The train arrived in Manchester Piccadilly on time at 09:44.
- The journey took two hours and 11 minutes
- The average speed was 86.5 mph.
- The Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly section is 30.9 miles and the train is scheduled to take 34 minutes.
- The average speed between Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly is 54.5 mph.
- The example train slows past Crewe because of two stops at Wilmslow and Stockport.
When Phase 2a of High Speed Two opens a replacement for this service via Crewe, could operate as follows.
- It could use High Speed Two between and Crewe.
- It could use the current route between Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly.
- It would probably use a 200 metre long High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- I wouldn’t be surprised, that the current Pendolino service between Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport was retired.
- The new High Speed Two service could take over the path currently used by the current Pendolino service, between Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly.
- The train could stop at Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport as required.
- If it stopped at Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport, it would restore some of the connectivity to smaller places.
According to the Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two, these will be the timings.
- London Euston and Crewe – 56 minutes
- London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly Phase 2a – One hour and 30 minutes
- London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly Phase 2b – One hour and 11 minutes
From these figures and the times of the 07:33, I can deduce these journey times for trains via Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport.
- Currently, Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly takes 34 minutes.
- High Speed Two after Phase 2a will also take 34 minutes.
I am surprised that sectional timings on this section of the West Coast Main Line are the same as current timings. Digital signalling and the faster acceleration and deceleration of the new trains, are quite likely to decrease times.
Because they are both 34 minutes, does that mean that services will stop at Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport?
London and Macclesfield Via Stafford And Stoke-on-Trent
This map of High Speed Two in North West England was captured from the interactive map on the High Speed Two web site.
Note.
- The map dates from around October 2020.
- The current West Coast Main Line (WCML) and Phase 2a of High Speed Two are shown in blue.
- Phase 2b of High Speed Two is shown in orange.
- The main North-South route, which is shown in blue, is the WCML passing through Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay and Wigan North Western as it goes North.
- The Western Branch, which is shown in blue, is the Liverpool Branch of the WCML, which serves Runcorn and Liverpool.
- High Speed Two, which is shown in orange, takes a faster route between Crewe and Wigan North Western.
- The Eastern Branch, which is shown in orange, is the Manchester Branch of High Speed Two, which serves Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly.
- The route in the East, which is shown in blue, is the Macclesfield Branch of High Speed Two, which serves Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent and Macclesfield.
The route of Northern Powerhouse Rail between Manchester Airport and Liverpool has still to be finalised.
The London and Macclesfield service is as follows.
- There will be one tph
- There are intermediate stops at Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
- Macclesfield has a long electrified bay platform, which looks like it will take a 200 m High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train.
- Macclesfield Station And High Speed Two has pictures of the station.
- Four tph operate between Stoke-on-Trent and Manchester Piccadilly via Macclesfield.
- Timings from London would be 55 minutes to Stafford, 70 minutes to Stoke-on-Trent and 90 minutes to Macclesfield.
In some ways, I was surprised about this High Speed Two service.
But it does give an easy connection to Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
London and Manchester Piccadilly via Macclesfield, Stafford And Stoke-on-Trent
Currently, Avanti West Coast run a service between London and Manchester which runs as follows.
- It calls at Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport
- It also passes through Watford Junction, Nuneaton, Tamworth and Lichfield Trent Valley.
- It could pass through Stafford.
- It would mean that Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent were served by 2 tph.
- It is run by a Pendolino.
- It has a frequency of 1 tph.
- The current service takes two hours and 6 minutes.
- A few minutes would be added for each extra stop.
I believe it could be a very useful service.
I wonder if it could be run as a complimentary service to High Speed Two to serve more places on the route.
A Second High Speed Two Service Between London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport
So far, I have mapped out three possible services.
- High Speed Two – London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport – One hour and thirty minutes
- High Speed Two – London and Macclesfield Via Stafford and Stoke – One hour and thirty minutes
- Pendolino – London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth, Lichfield Trent Valley, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport – Two hours and 6 minutes plus 4 minutes for each extra stop.
I suspect that four tph could be a good frequency.
The simplest extra service would probably be another High Speed Two London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport.
But it could be another Pendolino service to serve more places.
I believe a service pattern could be arranged with these features.
- Major cities and towns between London and Manchester have at least two tph.
- A larger number of towns and cities have at least one tph.
Note that many stations on the route already have Pendolino services.
Phase 2b Would Be The Ultimate Solution
Phase 2b which will involve a tunnel via Manchester Airport to new platforms in Manchester Piccadilly could be the ultimate solution.
Phase 2b is also needed so that full-size High Speed Two trains can be run to Manchester Piccadilly.
But it will be difficult, expensive and disruptive to build.
Conclusion
I believe it could be easy to plan four services between London and Manchester Piccadilly or Macclesfield.
- High Speed Two Full-Size train – London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport – One hour and eleven minutes
- High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train – London and Macclesfield Via Stafford and Stoke – One hour and thirty minutes
- High Speed Two Full-Size train – London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport – One hour and eleven minutes
- Pendolino – London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth, Lichfield Trent Valley, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport – Two hours and 6 minutes plus 4 minutes for each extra stop.
Note.
Services 1 and 3 are identical, but don’t need to be.
Service 4 could be run by a High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train.
See Also
Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?
The Anonymous Widower 