The Anonymous Widower

Are LNER Going To Take On The Airlines?

Nine years ago, I wrote Edinburgh – Plane Or Train?, after a trip to Scotland, where I took easyJet up and came back in First Class by train.

• Both trips were about five hours door-to-door.
• The flight was about six quid more,
• But I got free food and drink on the train.
• Security on the plane was a pain.
• I had to take my passport for identification at Stansted.

I haven’t flown internally in Great Britain since, although, I have flown to Belfast.

For shorter flights the market is going towards rail, as these posts seem to suggest.

• 2.7M Tonnes Of Co2 Could Be Saved Per Year If UK Domestic Flights Went Electric
• Air Travellers To Be Hit By Carbon Charge On All Tickets
• Climate Change ‘May Curb Growth In UK Flying’
• France Bans Short-Haul Flights To Cut Carbon Emissions
• KLM Replaces Plane With High Speed Train
• Lumo Carbon Data Shows Its Trains Are 22 Times Greener Than Flying
• Next Time I’ll Go By Train
• Ryanair One Of Europe’s Top Polluters, EU Data Suggests
• Stop Taking Internal Flights And Go Green, Says Lib Dem Contender Davey

The climate seems to be turning against flying short-haul.

This is a paragraph, in this press release from LNER, which is entitled First Tri-Mode Long Distance Trains For The East Coast Main Line.

This new fleet of trains will keep LNER on track to reduce its emissions by 67 per cent by 2035 and be net zero by 2045. LNER has already reduced carbon emissions by 50 per cent compared with 2018/19. Per mile, LNER trains produce 15 times less carbon emissions than a domestic flight.

Are LNER building a number of climate-based sticks, with which to beat the airlines on the routes, where they compete?

These are my thoughts on the various routes, where LNER compete with airlines.

Newcastle

Newcastle is an interesting one.

• Newcastle station is in the city centre and is on the Tyne and Wear Metro.
• London King’s Cross is one of London’s major Underground hubs.
• There are lots of buses and local trains within walking distance of both stations.
• There are three trains every two hours and an additional eight trains per day (tpd) between the two London King’s Cross and Newcastle stations.
• Lumo also run five tpd on the route.
• There are generally no security delays at rail stations.
• London King’s Cross is laid out to maximise passenger flows. If it gets busy, everybody just walks out into King’s Cross Square.
• I’ve never had a problem at Newcastle station with overcrowding.

Perhaps, if you live near one of the airports, flying is more convenient.

LNER’s weapons against the airlines between London King’s Cross and Newcastle will be convenience and journey times.

Convenience is all about the location of the stations, their excellent  local transport networks and good walking routes around the station.

Journey times will only get better, as the magic of digital in-cab signalling, allows the Azumas, the new CAF tri-mode long distance trains and the few remaining InterCity 225s to show what they were designed to do.

Dalton-on-Tees, where the first phase of the digitally signalling will end, is 39.8 miles South of Newcastle, so once the Newcastle train is passes Dalton-on-Tees on the East Coast Main Line, it will be a digital-signalled electrified railway all the way to Woolmer Green.

• Dalton-on-Tees is 39.8 miles South of Newcastle
• Woolmer Green is 244.8 miles South of Newcastle.
• Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green is 205 miles.
• Newcastle and Dalton-on-Tees takes 37 minutes.
• Woolmer Green and King’s Cross takes 18 minutes
• Trains take typically an average three hours and nine minutes between London and Newcastle.
• A typical train time by LNER between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green is two hours and 14 minutes.
• This is an average speed of 91.8 mph between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green.
• Between London King’s Cross and Newcastle is fully-electrified.

I can build a table of timings and savings at various average speeds.

• 120 mph – 103 minutes – two hours and 38 minutes – 31 minutes
• 125 mph – 98 minutes – two hours and 33 minutes – 36 minutes
• 130 mph – 95 minutes – two hours and 30 minutes – 39 minutes
• 135 mph – 91 minutes – two hours and 26 minutes – 43 minutes
• 140 mph – 88 minutes – two hours and 23 minutes – 46 minutes

Note.

1. The first field is the average speed between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green.
2. The second field is the time between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green.
3. The third field is the time between London and Newcastle.
4. The fourth field is the saving over current timings.
5. The London and Newcastle time is calculated by adding the times for the three sections together.

I have regularly timed trains at a very constant 125 mph, so with digital signalling, I suspect an average of 130 mph is possible.

This would mean, times of a few minutes under two hours and thirty minutes could be possible between London and Newcastle.

Edinburgh

Edinburgh builds on the improvements South of Newcastle.

Edinburgh station Waverley is a well-connected station.

• There are lots of buses, local trains and the Edinburgh Tram within walking distance of Edinburgh Waverley station.
• There are three trains every two hours and an additional seven tpd between the London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley stations.
• Lumo also run five tpd on the route.
• Trains take typically an average four hours and thirty minutes between London and Edinburgh Waverley.
• Any savings because of the digital in-cab signalling between London and Newcastle can be applied to London and Edinburgh Waverley services.

As my calculations showed that averaging 130 mph between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green could save 39 minutes on journey times, I am fairly sure than a sub-four hour journey time will be possible between London and Edinburgh Waverley.

It should also be noted that that the power supply has been improved between Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley.

• The distance between Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley is 124.2 miles
• Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley takes around one hour and 30 minutes.
• This is an average speed of 82.8 mph between Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley.
• Between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley is fully-electrified.

As the record time for between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley was set by an InterCity225 train in 1993 at three hours and twenty-nine minutes, I suspect that with more digital signalling and some track improvements, that there are more journey time improvements to be squeezed out.

I certainly believe that a time of three hours and fifty minutes between London and Edinburgh Waverley will be regularly achieved. This is a journey time saving of around forty minutes.

Dundee

Dundee has an airport and a station on the East Coast Main Line.

Trains between London  King’s Cross and Dundee take around five hours and 45 minutes.

LNER run three trains per day to and from London King’s Cross and one tpd to and from Leeds.

CrossCountry also run services.

Loganair has two flights per day to Heathrow.

Aberdeen

Aberdeen builds on the improvements South of Edinburgh.

The four direct tpd between London and Aberdeen take around seven hours and ten minutes.

This should come down to around six hours and thirty minutes with the journey time savings between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley.

Will this tempt travellers from the airlines?

Battery-Electric Trains To Dundee And Aberdeen

One thing that will help, is that Edinburgh and Aberdeen is to be partially electrified.

InPiling Work To Get Underway To Electrify Line To Fife, I included this Network Rail map of the electrification.

This map has been downloaded from the Network Rail web site.

The electrification is split into four phases.

1. Haymarket and Dalmeny – 25 km
2. Kirkcaldy and Thornton North – 25 km.
3. Lochgelly and Thornton North – 20 km.
4. Thornton North and Ladybank – 34 km.

Note.

1. The last three phases of electrification connect to Thornton North.
2. The new rail link to Leven will also be electrified. and connected to Thornton North.
3. The Forth Bridge is not to be electrified.

As Ladybank station is just 91.4 miles from Aberdeen, I suspect LNER will use  Hitachi Intercity Battery Hybrid Trains to serve Aberdeen.

If these trains haven’t got the range, then I suspect LNER’s new CAF Tri-Mode Trains could handle the route.

Inverness

Inverness has a problem.

Zero-carbon trains will be unlikely to get to the city without  full electrification of the Highland Main Line.

• Dunblane is the nearest electrified station to Inverness, but it is 146.2 miles away over a route with lots of steep climbs.
• I doubt that a battery-electric train could handle that route.

One solution would be for LNER to run the new CAF Tri-Mode Trains to Inverness using HVO or biodiesel.

Glasgow

Glasgow is the only other Scottish city with an airport and good rail connections to the South.

I am sure that Avanti West Coast will target airline passengers, if LNER prove it is a successful policy.

Other Factors

These are other factors, that will come into a traveller’s choice.

First Class

Some travellers like a bit more comfort and service.

Ability To Work

Some travellers like to work on a train.

You Don’t Get Tables On a Plane

I like to open a paper or magazine flat, which is difficult on a plane.

Views Tend To Be Better On a Train

Providing you get a window!

Parking Tends To Be Better At An Airport

But it may be more expensive!

Security Is Less Hassle On A Train

At the moment!

You Don’t Need To Prove Your Identity On A Train

Not in the UK! Yet!

Conclusion

It looks like LNER can offer the airlines to four of our major Northern cities serious zero-carbon competition.

November 19, 2023 Posted by AnonW | Transport/Travel | Aberdeen, Aberdeen Airport, Avanti West Coast, Azuma Train, Biodiesel, CAF Tri-Mode Train, Digital Signalling, Dundee Station, East Coast Main Line, EasyJet, Electrification, Flying, Glasgow, Glasgow Airport, Highland Main Line, Hitachi Intercity Battery Hybrid Train, Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO), InterCity 225, King's Cross Station, Ladybank Station, LNER, Newcastle, Newcastle Airport, Newcastle Station, Scotland, Stansted Airport, Tyne And Wear Metro | 2 Comments