Care Homes In England Had Greatest Increase In Excess Deaths At Height Of The COVID-19 Pandemic
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the University of Stirling web site.
This is the introductory paragraph.
Care homes in England experienced the highest increase in excess deaths at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to those in the rest of the UK, according to new research.
The actual figures are as follows.
- England – 79 %
- Northern Ireland – 46 %
- Scotland – 62 %
- Wales – 66 %
So why are the three Celtic nations, doing better than England?
In A Thought On Deaths Of The Elderly From Covid-19, I said this.
How many undiagnosed coeliacs are there in those over seventy, who because they are coeliacs, have a compromised immune system?
I would be undiagnosed but for that elderly locum!
How many other coeliacs are there in the UK population?
-
- Age UK has a figure of twelve million who are over 65 in the UK.
- If 1-in-100, as stated by Coeliac UK, in the UK are coeliac, that is 120,000 undiagnosed coeliacs over 65.
Will these 120,000 people have a compromised immune system, that makes them more susceptible to Covid-19?
It has been said, that a good immune system helps you fight Covid-19!
If those 120,000 elderly undiagnosed coeliacs have a compromised immune system, how many are in poor health with cancer, arthritis and general poor health and have decided that a care home is best.
Coeliac Disease And The Celts
The Irish have a history of coeliac disease, which I have heard suggested goes back to the potato famine.
Certainly, the whole island of Ireland is a coeliac friendly place compared to some parts of England. Although, Liverpool with its strong Irish heritage is an exception.
Conclusion
I do wonder, if understanding of coeliac disease in the three Celtic nations is better than it is in England and a higher proportion of elderly coeliacs have been diagnosed.
Any younger coeliac born after about 1980, has probably been picked up, for the simple reason, that most GPs these days take regular blood tests and do seem to be more knowledgeable about the disease than GPs were before about 1980.
According to my GP, to test a child, is normally just a simple blood test and an analysis at a lab. Only a few cases, will need an endoscopy.
So do we have this population of undiagnosed coeliacs with compromised immune systems in English care homes?
Perhaps, everybody in a care home, should be tested for coeliac disease?
If nothing else, it may save money on cancer care, as diagnosed coeliacs on a gluten-free diet are 25 % less likely to suffer from cancer.
Eurostar Plans To Start Direct Amsterdam – London Trains In October
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Railway Gazette International.
This is the introductory paragraph.
Cross-Channel high speed operator Eurostar has confirmed its intention to launch direct Amsterdam – London St Pancras services from October 26, complementing the London – Amsterdam trains which have run since April 2018.
The article then goes on to give more details of the service.
- Security checks will be undertaken at Amsterdam CS and Rotterdam Centraal stations.
- Amsterdam to London will be nine minutes over four hours.
- There will initially be two trains per day.
- There was a hint of more next year.
- It will carry Shengen area passengers between Amsterdam and Brussels.
Eurostar says it will offer flexible booking options to help, if the Government changes COVID-19 quarantine regulations.
Conclusion
It looks a sensible offering and as I’ve used it between London and Amsterdam three times, I will be trying to fit in a trip before the end of the year.
Pancreatic Cancer Deaths Around The World
This data is from a web site called World Life Expectancy.
My son died at just 37 and if I can save one person’s family, from the same anguish, that I have suffered, it would have been worth it.
The data is World Health Organisation data from 2018, and the figures shown are as follows.
- Age adjusted death rate per 100,000 of the population
- World ranking
- Rating in the country of pancreatic cancer amongst all deaths.
The country name links to the data.
- Argentina – 7.78 – 31 – 16
- Armenia – 10.34 – 3 – 15
- Australia – 6.25 – 50 – 13
- Austria – 9.13 – 10 – 12
- Bangladesh – 0.77 – 176 – >50
- Barbados – 7.99 – 22 – 22
- Belgium – 7.34 – 38 – 12
- Bulgaria – 7.91 – 25 – 15
- Cambodia – 1.79 – 139 – 48
- Canada – 6.40 – 47 – 13
- China – 4.07 – 85 – 22
- Cote d’Ivoire – 3.81 – 88 – 48
- Croatia – 8.05 – 18 – 15
- Cyprus – 6.50 – 45 – 15
- Czech Republic – 9.89 – 5 – 14
- Denmark – 8.51 – 16 – 12
- Estonia – 9.26 – 6 – 15
- Ethiopia – 1.16 – 165 – >50
- Finland – 8.78 – 11 – 11
- France – 7.92 – 24 – 10
- Germany – 8.68 – 14 – 13
- Greece – 7.36 – 37 – 10
- Haiti – 2.99 – 107 – 42
- Hungary – 11.35 – 1 – 13
- Iceland – 9.21 – 7 – 10
- India – 1.63 – 146 – >50
- Iran – 2.28 – 128 – 27
- Iraq – 1.39 – 99 – 37
- Ireland – 6.83 – 40 – 14
- Israel – 9.18 – 8 – 12
- Italy – 7.41 – 36 – 10
- Japan – 8.74 – 12 – 10
- Laos – 1.15 – 167 – >50
- Latvia – 6.72 – 13 – 14
- Lithuania – 8.21 – 19 – 15
- Luxembourg – 8.15 – 20 – 12
- Malta – 10.01 – 4 – 11
- Netherlands – 8.38 – 17 – 11
- New Zealand – 5.69 – 53 – 15
- Niger – 1.77 – 142 – 50
- Nigeria – 2.30 – 120 – >50
- Norway – 7.78 – 30 – 11
- Pakistan – 0.51 – 182 – >50
- Russia – 7.86 – 29 – 20
- Slovakia – 9.17 – 9 – 14
- Slovenia – 8.55 – 15 – 12
- South Africa – 4.89 – 71 – 33
- South Korea – 6.75 – 42 – 15
- Spain – 6.32 – 49 – 11
- Sweden – 8.15 – 21 – 12
- Switzerland – 7.49 – 34 – 11
- United Kingdom – 6.55 – 44 – 14
- United States – 7.96 – 23 – 17
- Uruquay – 10.72 – 2 – 15
- Vietnam – 0.75 – 178 – 50
These are a few of my thoughts.
The Top Ten Countries
These are the top ten countries.
- Hungary
- Uruguay
- Armemia
- Malta
- Czech Republic
- Estonia
- Iceland
- Israel
- Slovakia
- Austria
The full list is on the World Life Expectancy web site.
From the top ten, it looks to me, that pancreatic cancer seems to be common in the old Austro-Hungarian Empire.
I also think there could be a Jewish connection.
In the history of Jews in the Austro-Hungarian Empire on Wikipedia, this is an extract, that talks about Jews around 1900.
In that period, the majority of Jews in Austria-Hungary lived in small towns (shtetls) in Galicia and rural areas in Hungary and Bohemia; however, they had large communities and even local majorities in the downtown districts of Vienna, Budapest and Prague. Of the pre-World War I military forces of the major European powers, the Austro-Hungarian army was almost alone in its regular promotion of Jews to positions of command. While the Jewish population of the lands of the Dual Monarchy was about five percent, Jews made up nearly eighteen percent of the reserve officer corps. Thanks to the modernity of the constitution and to the benevolence of emperor Franz Joseph, the Austrian Jews came to regard the era of Austria-Hungary as a golden era of their history.
That doesn’t sound like they were suffering large amounts of anti-semitism, as they had for a long time in the Baltic States and East Prussia, where my ancestor emigrated to England around 1800.
I need some help here from a Jewish historian.
But the statistics and geography are indicating to me, that Jews from the Austro-Hungarian Empire could have chosen to emigate through the Balkans to Palestine, when they saw the way the tide was turning after World War One.
I know a bit about life in Palestine in the 1930s, because at one period of my life, my next-door neighbour was a retired British Officer, who was stationed in the country. He was actually in the King David Hotel, when it was blown up. Charles is long-dead now, but I wished I’d recorded his memories, as in today’s Middle East climate, they would be an unusual insight.
But why Iceland, Malta and Uruguay?
Ireland And The United Kingdom
As could be expected, Ireland and the United Kingdom are fairly close together in the table; at 40 and 44 respectively.
- Just men and the positions are 49 and 51.
- Just women and it’s 37 and 42.
In the tables, Canada and Australia are just below the United Kingdom, with New Zealand a few places further down.
Cambodia, Laos And Vietnam
To a coeliac like me, Cambodia is interesting, as they are reckoned to have the most gluten-free cuisine in the world.
But these three countries, are all in the bottom third of the table, along with some other major countries, whose food has a lot of rice; Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan and Thailand.
I know gluten affects my health, but if your diet contains little gluten, does that lower, your chance of getting pancreatic cancer?
1-in-11,000 Chance Of Contracting COVID-19 On Trains
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Rail Magazine.
That looks like a chance I’ll take!
Coeliac Disease And Sex Of The Sufferer
This page on the NHS web site is an overview of coeliac disease.
Under Who’s Affected, this is said.
Coeliac disease is a condition that affects at least 1 in every 100 people in the UK.
But some experts think this may be underestimated because milder cases may go undiagnosed or be misdiagnosed as other digestive conditions, such as irritable bowel syndrome (IBS).
Reported cases of coeliac disease are around 3 times higher in women than men.
It can develop at any age, although symptoms are most likely to develop:
during early childhood – between 8 and 12 months old, although it may take several years before a correct diagnosis is made
in later adulthood – between 40 and 60 years of age
People with certain conditions, including type 1 diabetes, autoimmune thyroid disease, Down’s syndrome and Turner syndrome, have an increased risk of getting coeliac disease.First-degree relatives (parents, brothers, sisters and children) of people with coeliac disease are also at increased risk of developing the condition.
The page is fairly definite, that women are three times more likely to be coeliac than men!
Scaled Back Hajj Pilgrimage Due To Start In Saudi Arabia
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
Quite frankly, I was very surprised, when I heard this news on the BBC.
I thought, the Hajj would have been cancelled and not just scaled back.
In the past, I have had vicars as friends and I have talked to devout Orthodox Jews, and we have discussed serious moral dilemmas.
I can remember some from both groups saying, that your health always comes first.
In the current pandemic, the Church of England and prominent Jews like the Chief Rabbi have behaved with ultra-caution.
So where is this caution from the Muslim religious leaders?
I hope the Government and other political leaders, are giving them the truth, as they are endangering us all!
Option Enables SWR To Expand Class 701 Fleet
The title of this post, is the same as that as this article on Rail Business UK.
Currently. South Western Railway (SWR) has the following Class 701 trains on order from Bombardier.
- 60 x ten-car trains
- 30 x five-car trains
They also had an option for two more ten-car trains.
This has been increased to five trains.
At least one train company, thinks it’s worth investing in more trains despite COVID-19!
The Spanish COVID-19 Outbreak Must Be Serious
I am watching BBC Breakfast and they are reporting the new outbreaks of COVID-19 in Spain.
It must be serious, as the BBC featured an interview with the Chief Medical Enforcer; Jonathan Van-Tam.
This doctor of Vietnamese heritage, who was raised in Boston in Lincolnshire, has surely been one of the heroes and most trusted voices in the fight against the pandemic.
Coronavirus: Protein Treatment Trial ‘A Breakthrough’
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
These are the first three paragraphs of the article.
The preliminary results of a clinical trial suggest a new treatment for Covid-19 reduces the number of patients needing intensive care, according to the UK company that developed it.
The treatment from Southampton-based biotech Synairgen uses a protein called interferon beta which the body produces when it gets a viral infection.
The protein is inhaled directly into the lungs of patients with coronavirus, using a nebuliser, in the hope that it will stimulate an immune response.
I first heard of Synairgen about five months ago, when I read about the company in the Sunday Times. It was only a few words, but it did say, that they were developing an inhaled beta interferon for use by Covid-19 patients or those with lung problems.
I should say, that I know about inhaled pharmaceuticals. Not because, I’ve ever used any, but because I funded the development of a very successful metered-dose inhaler for asthma drugs.
Two inventors; Stephen Dunne and Terry Weston came to me looking for finance to complete the development of an aerosol value, that instead of using CFCs or HCFCs as a propellant, used purified air. In fact it was pure nitrogen, but the average user of a deodorant or fly-spray doesn’t know that nitrogen is a constituent of air and thinks it’s posionous.
We formed a company called Dunne Miller Weston or DMW.
It was a technical success and the company’s MP; John Gummer, took details of the breakthrough to the conference that resulted in the Montreal Protocol.
The device and the associated patents were sold to Johnson & Johnson.
The two inventors had other ideas and one was for a metered dose inhaler for asthma drugs.
I remember that they were able to get a grant from Glaxo to prove the concept of the device.
Because, the full development would need more money, we now had a fourth partner; Mike.
I remember going with Mike to see Glaxo and we were unable to reach agreement on how Glaxo would contribute to the full development. They tended to give out these grants and I got the impression, that ours was one of the first to get a positive result and they didn’t know how to handle it.
But, it didn’t matter, as we were able to raise the funding from elsewhere and develop a successful device.
This was sold to Boehringer Ingelheim for a lot of money and all investors were very satisfied. Their product name is Respimat.
Glaxo carried on using an HCFC device.
I earned a reasonable about of money from my investment, but I also learned a lot about pharmaceuticals.
- At the time, New Zealand had the highest level of asthma inhaler use in the world.
- Pharmaceutical companies are very conservative.
- Doctors tend to give out inhalers like toys.
- Naked flames are a big cause of asthma.
But the most important knowledge I acquired was over a drink with an engineer in a pharmaceutical company, that the fine spray we obtained with our device would have lots of medical applications, including delivery of insulin for diabetics. We’d already had very good feedback, from test users in Germany.
Some other applications are stored in my brain. One could be a very big seller in the modern world!
So when I saw the report in The Sunday Times, I bought a few shares in Synairgen.
I have been well-rewarded today!
Should The NHS Adopt A Whack-A-Coeliac Policy?
The Wikipedia entry for Whac-a-Mole, says this about the colloquial use of the name of an arcade game.
In late June 2020, Boris Johnson based the UK’s COVID-19 strategy on the game.
Because of the high number of diagnosed coeliacs in the Cambridge area, I believe that I was diagnosed to be coeliac, by possible use of a Whack-a-Coeliac policy at Addenbrookes Hospital in Cambridge, in the last years of the Twentieth Century.
- I was suffering from low B12 levels and my GP sent me to the hospital to see a consultant.
- It was only a quick visit and all I remember, is the speed with which the nurse took my blood.
- A couple of days later, I received a letter from the hospital, saying it was likely I was a coeliac and it would be confirmed by an endoscopy.
- A point to note, is that I had my endoscopy with just a throat spray and this must have increased the efficiency and throughput and reduced the cost of the procedure.
The only way, I could have been diagnosed so quickly would have been through an analysis of my genes and blood. But I was never told, what method was used.
I have a few further thoughts.
My Health Since Diagnosis
It has undoubtedly improved.
Cancer And Diagnosed Coeliacs On A Gluten-Free Diet
Joe West of Nottingham University has shown, that diagnosed coeliacs on a gluten-free diet have a 25% lower risk of cancer compared to the general population.
That is certainly a collateral benefit of being a coeliac. But is it being a coeliac or the diet?
I’m no medic, but could the reason be, that diagnosed coeliacs on a gluten-free diet have a strong immune system?
Coeliac Disease Is A Many-Headed Hydra
I have heard a doctor describe coeliac disease or gluten-sensitivity as a many-headed hydra, as it can turn up in so many other illnesses.
Type “coeliac disease many-headed hydra” into Google and this article on the NCBI , which is entitled Gluten Sensitivity: A Many Headed Hydra, is the first of many.
This is the sub-title of the article.
Heightened responsiveness to gluten is not confined to the gut
My son; George was an undiagnosed coeliac, who had a poor diet consisting mostly of Subways, cigarettes and high-strength cannabis. He died at just thirty-seven of pancreatic cancer.
Did George have a poor immune system, which was useless at fighting the cancer?
Undiagnosed Coeliac Disease In The Over-Sixty-Fives
In A Thought On Deaths Of The Elderly From Covid-19, I used data from Age UK and Coeliac UK to estimate the number of coeliacs in the UK over the age of sixty-five. I said this.
Age UK has a figure of twelve million who are over 65 in the UK. If 1-in-100 in the UK are coeliac, that is 120,000 coeliacs over 65.
But some research shows that the number of coeliacs can be as high as 1-in-50.
If that 120,000 were all diagnosed, I would have several coeliacs amongst my over-65 friends. I have just one and she is self-diagnosed.
Are all these undiagnosed coeliacs out there, easy targets for diseases like cancer and COVID-19?
The Ease Of Testing For Coeliac Disease
I was worried that my granddaughter was coeliac and I asked my GP, how difficult a test is to perform.
He said, that a genetic test is usually quick and correct and only a few borderline cases need to be referred to a consultant.
Diagnosis has moved on a lot in twenty years.
Cambridge, Oxford and Covid-19
Six weeks ago I wrote Oxford And Cambridge Compared On COVID-19, to try to find out why the number of Covid-19 cases are so much lower in Cambridge than Oxford.
Checking today, the rate of lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 residents is as follows.
- Cambridge 336.6
- Oxford 449
So why the difference?
In the related post, this was my explanation.
Is the large number of diagnosed coeliacs around Cambridge, the reason the area has a lower COVID-19 rate than Oxford?
It sounds a long shot, but it could be a vindication of a possible Whack-a-Coeliac policy at Addenbrooke’s in the last years of the Twentieth Century.
Or were the hospital testing the genetic test for coeliac disease? Perhaps, in conjunction with Cambridge University and/or the Sanger Centre.
Conclusion
I believe the NHS should seriously look at a Whack-a-Coeliac policy!
- The health of a large number of people would improve.
- There would be less cancer in the UK.
- A better combined National Immune System might help in our fight against the next virus to follow COVID-19.
It would be a very simple testing program, that would be mainly in the hands of the GPs, their nurses and the testing laboratories.
