The Oil Find That Will Settle The Result Of The Election
I’ve believed for some time, that which ever party wins the election in a few weeks time should win the next election in 2020.
This belief is based on the fact, that so many large rail and other transport projects are due for completion in the later years of this decade.
The report on the BBC of the large oil find at Horse Hill in Surrey, is one of many that describe the find as of national significance. This is said in the BBC’s report.
“We think we’ve found a very significant discovery here, probably the largest [onshore in the UK] in the last 30 years, and we think it has national significance,” Stephen Sanderson, UKOG’s chief executive told the BBC.
Many will worry that developing an oil field in rural Surrey could be an environmental disaster.
A friend of mine had a lot to do with the development of the last major onshore oilfield in the UK at Wytch Farm, which is the largest onshore oil-field in Western Europe. The new field could be bigger, but all reports get their millions and billions mixed up.
Wytch Farm is not your average oilfield, as it is in the heart of rural Dorset by Corfe Castle. Wikipedia says this about the environment of the field.
Most of the field is protected by various conservation laws, including the Jurassic Coast world heritage site, Purbeck Heritage Coast and a number of sites of special scientific interest, areas of outstanding natural beauty and nature reserves (including Studland and Brownsea Island), so the gathering centre and most of the well sites are small and well screened by trees. Directional drilling has also contributed to reducing the impact on the local environment, with extended reach drilling from the Goathorn Peninsula attaining distances in excess of 10 km.
But the field would appear to have been an impeccable neighbour, more conspicuous by its absence in the media.
So I think the UK has good form in the development of oilfields in sensitive areas and there is no reason to expect that the development of Horse Hill will be any more disruptive than that at Wytch Farm.
The field’s biggest effect will be on the UK economy, if as reports are saying, production will start in a few years time, it will be producing revenues and cutting imports by the next election in 2020.
Circumstances have left the incoming government with a very large dowry.
They will have to be really stupid to lose in 2020. But then that’s normal for politicians.
Two ‘eads Are Better Than One!
This is an old phrase, but it certainly doesn’t apply to the two Eds trying to think up Labour Party tax policies.
In this article on the BBC, about the taxing of ‘non-doms’, this is said.
Ed Miliband said the non-dom rules were “indefensible” and axing them would raise “hundreds of millions” in tax.
But shadow chancellor Ed Balls was forced to deny contradicting himself after saying in January that scrapping the rule “would cost Britain money”.
How many people will now take everything they say with an awfully large pinch of salt?
I think it illustrates the first law of politics, which is don’t go into it, if you can’t remember everything you’ve done and said, since you first drew breath.
Why Would A Well-Off Person Vote For This Labour Party?
I am 67, single and reasonably comfortably off, but with the exception of my house, pension pot and funds in Zopa, I have no substantial taxable assets. Quite frankly, purchases like expensive cars and art, a second house in the country, buy-to-let investments and vanity purchases like football clubs, just don’t interest me.
My house is probably just below any proposed Mansion Tax limit, but for how long, given the rate of the rise in property values in this area?
Over the years, I’ve acquired a few friends, who are now as financially secure as I am, for the rest of their lives.
What puzzles me, are some of these friends have been serious supporters of the Labour Party in the past. I wonder how many of them, are now less sure in their support, as every day, Miliband and Balls bring in more and more bash-the-rich policies?
The latest policy of abolishing the ‘non-dom’ status as reported on the BBC, may not worry me, but I suspect some of the people I know will be livid. I can think of someone, who is a Project Management professional, who works all the time outside of the UK, which probably gives them an interesting tax problem and being ‘non-dom’ may come into their affairs.
In fact, there are so many high-paid jobs of this type, which because of the Internet and air travel can be done from any reasonable base, so how many of these people would leave if a Labour government took power? In the past C and myself, thought about leaving, if the General Elections of the 1980s and early 1990s had gone the wrong way.
So what is going to be the next crazy bash-the-rich policy floated by this impractical Labour Party?
On the other hand there will be Newtonian reactions.
I think this lurch to the left, will hurt the Labour Party severely in the pocket, as so many of those who supported them in the past, won’t contribute this time.
They will become even more dependent on the Trade Unions for funds.
But I also feel, that anyone, who has a desire to be rich, will think twice about the way they are going to vote!
Luckily for me, what I consider my biggest asset, that has got me out of financial trouble several times in the past; my brain, is untaxable! Unless of course, a government brings in a higher rate of Income Tax for those with a University degree!
Newtonian Politics
Isaac Newton was a great man of many facets. To me though as an Control Engineer, his most important work is his three laws of motion.
The First Law states that every body continues in its state of rest or uniform motion in a straight line unless acted on by an external force.
In real life it is Newton’s version of the old maxim – If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
The Second Law states that the rate of change of mass times velocity in a body is proportional to the force applied.
Basically, in real life this means that the harder you push something the more it moves the way you want it to.
The Third Law states every action on a body has an equal and opposite reaction.
Newton wrote his laws as they applied to mechanical systems, but they also can be applied to people systems in a philosophical way.
If you look at the British economy for the last fifty years, two of the worst times were the Oil Crisis of 1973 and the Banking Crisis of 2008. Massive external forces distorted a British economic system, that was sitting reasonably happily in a state of rest as defined by the First Law. The application of the external force was a superb example of Newton’s Second Law, which caused the economy to move fast in the wrong direction.
In recent years too, the attacks of September 11th, 2001, the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004 and the Japanese earthquake and tsunami of 2011
In some cases the reaction of politicians the world over to these and other crises only made things worse. If we take September 11th, the United States had the moral high-ground after the atrocities and could have applied sensible policies to make sure that such attacks never happened again. Instead they illustrated Newton’s Third Law brilliantly, by in revenge invading Afghanistan and Iraq, which of course provoked the opposite reaction of Islamic terrorism we now see all over the world. If you poke a hornets nest, you get stung. Or in the case of the September 11th attacks, the rest of the world does.
So how do Newton’s Laws affect British politics and in particular this coming election?
I’ll use two simple examples from London.
The London Fire Brigade has closed ten fire stations in order to save money to help the city recover from the recession of 2008. There have been protests and local objections, but there has not been one story in the past year, of destruction or even death caused by the cuts.
Transport for London over the last couple of years, have swiftly moved totally away from cash-based ticketing to one that relies on contactless cards of one sort or another with the closure of lots of ticket offices. Politicians protested loudly at the announcement but there have not been any stories since about passengers protesting because they couldn’t get home or something similar. In fact the only comment, I’ve had from staff, is one off-duty bus driver, who said he’s convinced attacks on staff have reduced significantly.
I think that Londoners, staff and eventually politicians have realised that although the changes are massive, most have only been affected in a small way, so their reaction to the changes has been proportionately small. Probably the worst affected group are firemen, who’ve been made redundant and I suspect, that London’s booming economy has allowed those who need a new job to get one, as protests have been surprising by their absence.
I think that these two examples illustrate a facet of the British people. We may moan a bit about something we don’t like, but when the new system beds in and it doesn’t effect us too much, we accept it as a sensible policy. On the other hand, if something is manifestly wrong, like the Second Gulf War, we protest until the end.
People may complain about the parties being too similar, but as most politicians are decent reasonable people, who see the bigger picture, the middle way is often chosen by everybody.
In this current election there has been a defining theme, that could determine who is the next Prime Minister.
In the seven-party television debate, Nicola Sturgeon, showed the English a face of Scots, that they don’t like. All of the thoughts from north of the border is worrying the English that any Labour dog, will be wagged by a Scottish Nationalist tail. So will this cause a drop in Labour’s vote in England?
The poll today in The Sunday Times shows that Tory support is hardening. So has Newton’s Third Law taken control?
If Labour is to get the most seats they have got to convince a large number of house-owning working middle-class voters to switch allegiance.
But will these floating votes go for a party that is saying it will use their ISAs and other measures to fund and ease more house building, which will depress the value of their own properties?
Labour policy makers obviously don’t know that every action has an equal and opposite reaction, as many of their policies, as do those of UKIP and the Nationalists, only appeal to a very committed majority. Tony Blair’s strength in the polls, was that he mobilised the non-Labour voters to vote for Nulabor.
David Cameron on the other hand, generally kept out of the squabbles in the seven-party debate, which was a classic stance to give a message compatible with Newton’s First Law.
It is an interesting problem, which will only be solved in the very British way at the ballot box in a few weeks time.
You Can Always Rely On Boris For a Good Quote
This article in The Guardian has this quote from Boris Johnson.
Vote Tory and get broadband. Vote Ukip and get Miliband!
Is there another UK politician, who is as good with words as Boris?
The Arguments Start On The Todmorden Curve
I’m not going to comment except suggest you read this article in the Burnley Express.
Has Cameron’s Honesty Settled The Election?
For a few years now, I’ve believed that whoever wins the election in a few weeks, will have a good chance of winning again in 2020. In Is George Osborne A Closet Trainspotter, I detailed all of the big rail projects finishing in the later years of this decade and said this.
Whoever wins the election in 2015, will be the biggest beneficiary of all this planned spending, as many projects like Crossrail, Thameslink and the Great Western Main Line, will be fully implemented just before the 2020 General election.
Cameron’s obvious desire to step down at the end of a second term, if he wins the election and lead a normal life, will give his successor a good hand for the 2020 Election.
His honesty has certainly put him in a totally different box to all of his rivals.
It may not win the Tories the election, but his decision probably will help many voters make up their minds.
Perhaps he also remembers that the last Prime Minister with a reasonable popularity level and a very supportive family, forced to call an election, won the resulting contest!
The Train Now Arriving Is Fifty Years Late
When I went to Liverpool University in October 1965. According to Wikipedia, electric trains between London and Liverpool and Manchester, started public service in April 1966. I can remember once taking a late train to London from Liverpool and a time of five hours forty minutes stricks in my mind.
The electric service between the North West and London is faster and more frequent now, but in some ways services between London and Blackpool and other places, is worse than it was in the 1960s, when there were direct trains.
In addition Leeds and Newcastle were connected to London by an electrified East Coast Main Line in 1990.
Over the last fifty years, since I first emerged into Lime Street, Liverpool and Leeds have developed local electric railways and Manchester has created a tram network. On the negative side, the electrified railway between Manchester and Sheffield has been ripped out.
The contempt for the North shown by successive Governments under Wilson, Callaghan, Heath, Thatcher, Major, Blair and Brown, by not even creating a plan to build a modern electrified railway from Liverpool to Newcastle and Hull, is one of the greatest political disgraces in this country, ranking with the day that Chamberlain thought he’d got a deal with Hitler.
But now, that plan is emerging to create that railway that the French or the Italians would have built before the 1970s. It’s here on the BBC and this is the first two paragraphs.
Plans to overhaul transport across the North of England, including with multi-billion pound rail schemes, have been laid out by the government.
The Northern Transport Strategy report details what George Osborne believes will create a “northern powerhouse”.
It contains a long-term plan to improve road links and speed up train times between major cities.
This plan or at least a simpler one which only used 100 mph trains, should have been created in the 1960s. All those politicians who failed the north should hang their heads in shame.
I blame Harold Wilson in particular, as surely being a Yorkshireman representing a Lancashire constiuency, he should have known the value of good rail links across the country.
I suppose that until recently, trains didn’t get any votes outside London and the South East, but wide and empty new motorways do.
In some ways, I find that all the rail developments in the North are being driven, by that most unlikely champion; the St. Pauls and Oxford-educated Tory Chancellor; George Osborne, who said this about the plans according to the BBC report.
Connecting up the great cities of the North is at the heart of our plan to build a northern powerhouse.
From backing high-speed rail to introducing simpler fares right across the North, our ambitious plans for transport mean we will deliver a truly national recovery where every part of the country will share in Britain’s prosperity.
But then Osborne is someone, who spent a lot of their formative years in London. I suspect as a teenager he roamed all over the city on the Underground and the buses, as I did. It is the sort of experience, that gives you the opinion that good public transport is a necessity for prosperity for all those who live and work in an area.
Sorting out the public transport in the North with electrified fast trains and contactless ticketing at its heart, should be something that anybody standing in the May election should be made to sign up to, before they are allowed to be a candidate.
Will Osborne Abolish Tax On Savings Interest?
This is said in this article in The Independent.
Tax on income from savings will be abolished for millions of people in the Budget today as George Osborne woos pensioners and “hard-working taxpayers” ahead of the May general election,The Independent has learnt.
So is the paper right?
It would make a lot of sense.
1, It would certainly encourage saving.
2. Encouraging saving may mean that more money will go into peer-to-peer lending, which will help lower interest rates for borrowers and give the banks a bit of a kicking. So a by-product of abolishing tax on savings interest could be better availability of finance for individuals and businesses.
3. I can see those who provide homes for savings like banks, building societies and peer-to-peer lenders getting increasingly innovate in finding ways to create high-interest, instant-access accounts.
4. It could put a lot of financial advisers out of business, as if say you had a lump sum to invest, you could easily work out what would be the best savings account, to keep the money until you need it.
5. But surely, the biggest benefit will be that as savings will now be held in an account, that doesn’t carry any tax, it will simplify tax accounting and returns for banks, building societies and savers alike.
If he does do it, then just imagine how any party who put it back would fare in an election!
On a personal note, if it does happen, I’ll be putting more of my money into Zopa!
George Osborne Sets Out His Vision Of Yorkshire
This article in the Huddersfield Examiner is entitled Chancellor George Osborne to set out long term economic plan for Yorkshire during visit to West Yorkshire.
Read it and there are some interesting snippets, that he believes will be part of a long term plan for Yorkshire.
One of them is this.
We will also increase speeds on the East Coast Mainline to 140 mph
It is already planned and if and when it happens it will significantly reduce journey times all the way up the line between London and Edinburgh.
George is not actually promising anything for which funds have not been allocated, but his words show he understands the value of infrastructure, something that can’t be said for all Chancellors of the Exchequer since the Second World War.
The one thing that George or any future Chancellor can ensure, is that by not cutting funds they will get this valuable project carried out!
The Anonymous Widower 