Crossrail: Report Finds Not Enough Money To Finish Project
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
These are the first two paragraphs.
The cost of completing Crossrail exceeds available funding, the government spending watchdog has found.
The National Audit Office (NAO) estimates the cost of the new rail link will be between £30m and £218m above the current funding.
After such a good start with the tunneling and surface line going well, how did we get here?
My main business for nearly forty years was writing project management software and that gave me a deep insight into the dynamics and mathematics of large projects.
The software, I created in the 1970s; Artemis was deeply involved in the most important project of the time; North Sea Oil.
But then more by luck, than any judgement on my part, it was well suited to solving the management problems of North Sea Oil.
The software ran on a small Hewlett-Packard mini-computer with an attached display and a printer, whose footprint, gave Artemis an advantage over competitors who needed a mainframe, for which there was no office space in Aberdeen.
I had first got involved in scheduling resources at ICI about five years earlier and because from previous experience I knew resources would be critical, I gave the program extensive resource aggregation and scheduling capabilities.
I have been told that the latter proved invaluable in successfully developing North Sea Oil. People may have been flattering me, but I do know that Shell used to ensure that all their suppliers used Artemis, so they could check easily if they were being told the truth.
I suspect that Shell and others used the aggregation capability to see that they weren’t overloading the pool of available labour.
Artemis definitely proved itself capable of handling the various projects in the North Sea.
We have now moved on forty years, but has project management moved on to cope with the advances in technology of the modern world?
As with North Sea Oil in Aberdeen, in the 1970s, Crossrail and other large projects like Berlin’s new Brandenburg Airport will always have a need for large numbers of resources, be they men, materiel or machines.
I have some questions.
- Do all contractors working on Crossrail use the same software?
- Does Crossrail have the right to inspect the contractors project management systems?
- Is the upward reporting what it needs to be?
- Does the software the contractors use, have an aggregation capability?
- Do Crossrail track and predict the resources needed?
Someone I respect told me, that a lot of modern project management software doesn’t even have an aggregation capability- Enough said!
I must admit, aggregation and scheduling software is difficult to write, so it might be easier to cut it out and let your clients muddle through!
But The Tunnels Were Built On Time And On Budget!
It all started so well, with the first part of the project, which was the boring of the tunnels being completed on time and on budget.
Observing the project, as I did and picking up information from engineers working on the tunnels and various magazines and television programs, I have to come to the conclusion, that the credit for the on time and budget completion must be down to excellent planning.
- I don’t remember any delays or problems reported in the tunneling. Was that good planning and surveying or luck?
- There were few if any articles on the BBC or in the Standard complaining about the problems the tunneling was inflicting on Londoners.
- The planners realised there could be a shortage of workers qualified to work underground, so they built the Tunnelling and Underground Construction Academy at Ilford, which I wrote about in Open House – TUCA.
Certainly, St Barbara, who is the patron saint of tunnellers looked after the project and its builders.
Worsening The Resource Problem
Crossrail, the Greater London Authority and the Boroughs should have been monitoring this growing resource problem, but I doubt they were in anything other than a perfunctory way!
Instead the politicians were giving planning permission to anybody with money, who wanted to build a shiny new development close to a station.
These projects would need more men, materiel or machines.
As many of these new developments are backed by companies or funds with bottomless pockets to get their developments finished they were prepared to pay more for their labour.
So labour has been deserting Crossrail in droves, thus further delaying the project.
Senior politicians in the Greater London Authority and the boroughs should accept some responsibility for Crossrail’s delay.
They didn’t need to withhold the planning permission, just say that construction of the other projects couldn’t commence until an appropriate phase of Crossrail was open.
In some parts of the world, brown envelopes will have changed hands, but it would be nice to know how many mayors and senior politicians have had holidays in places, they would not normally visit.
Senior project managers tell me, that they would not be surprised if developments along Crossrail had delayed the project.
The Covid Problem
No-one saw Covid coming, except possibly the Chinese.
But good project management is all about negotiating the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.
There is the story of the miniMetro production line.
The first body shells coming out of the automated welder were crooked and it turned out that the machine had hit a motorway bridge in Germany. But by good project management using Artemis, British Leyland engineers were able to get the second line working correctly before the first and the car was launched on time.
With Covid, the Mayor shut construction, and it was some months before it restarted again.
I am certain, that with good project management we could have done better.
Covid is also a good excuse for lateness.
On the other hand good project management got the vaccines developed, manufactured and delivered into arms.
Covid also blew a big hole in Transport for London’s finances.
But then so did Sadiq Khan’s Fare Freeze, that brought him to office.
Could Crossrail Have Part-Opened Earlier?
I often ponder this and others ask me if it would be possible.
The Victoria Line was built with crossovers and it was able to open in phases.
Crossrail has crossovers in the following places.
- Either side of Custom House station
- To the West of Whitechapel station
- Between Farringdon and Tottenham Court Road stations
Note.
- It doesn’t appear to have been built for part opening.
- From media reports, it appears Whitechapel station is the basket case in the East.
The answer is probably that Crossrail can’t be part-opened, but there are good reasons, why it should be opened earlier.
- To generate a small amount of revenue.
- To give travellers and Londoners in general a lift.
The only practical service would be a few trains turning at Farringdon.
Conclusion
I blame politicians for Crossrail being late and over budget.
ORR’s Policy On Third Rail DC Electrification Systems
The title of this post is the same as that of a document I downloaded from this page on the Office of Rail and Road web site.
It is one of the most boring legal documents, that I have ever read and I have read a few in my time.
As I read it, effectively it says that new third-rail electrification is banned because of Health and Safety issues, which take precedence.
But only once in the document is new technology mentioned, that might make third-rail safer and that is a reference to the Docklands Light Railway, where the third rail is shielded.
I am an Electrical Engineer and I was designing safety systems for heavy industrial guillotines at fifteen as a vacation job in a non-ferrous metals factory.
One design of an ideal electric railway would have battery-electric trains, that were charged in stations by third-rail. The third-rail would only be energised, when a train was over the top and needed to be charged. In effect the train would act as an all-enclosing guard to the conductor rail.
Electrification Of The West Of England Main Line
The West of England Main Line runs between Basingstoke and Exeter via Salisbury. It is one of the longest, if not the longest main lines in England, that is not electrified.
It would probably need to be electrified with 750 VDC third-rail electrification, as that standard is used between London Waterloo and Basingstoke.
In Solving The Electrification Conundrum, I described a system being developed by Hitachi, that would use battery-electric trains that were charged by short sections of electrified line every fifty miles or so. For reasons of ease of installation and overall costs, these short sections of electrification could be third-rail, that was electrically dead unless a train was connected and needed charging. These electrified sections could also be in stations, where entry on to the railway is a bit more restricted.
Conclusion
The Office of Rail and Road needs to employ a few more engineers with good technical brains, rather than ultra-conservative risk-averse lawyers.
As a sad footnote, I live in East London, where trespassers are regularly electrocuted on the railway. But usually, it is when idiots are travelling on top of container trains and inadvertently come into contact with the overhead electrification.
Will Hitachi ABB Power Grids Technology Be Used At Headbolt Lane Station?
Today, I was sent a link to the North Cheshire Rail User Group’s Newsletter for Spring 2021.
Current Progress on Merseyrail’s Class 777 Trains
This is said in the newsletter about the progress of the new Class 777 trains.
At a recent meeting of the Liverpool City Region rail user groups hosted by Liam Robinson, Chair of
Merseytravel, a short presentation was given detailing progress in bringing the new Class 777 Stadler fleet into
operation. NCRUG has been keeping a keen watch on the introduction of this new fleet; later model Class 777’s
have the ability to leave the 3rd rail and operate under battery power for 20 miles or more with a full load thus
permitting expansion of the Merseyrail network beyond its current limits.Particularly of interest in our patch is the Ellesmere Port to Helsby line, although at one point in the meeting I
did raise the concept of ultimately having a complete Merseyrail service circling the Mersey Estuary on a metro
styled basis Ambitious certainly, but unrealistic as a long-term goal? There would be considerable work required
at Liverpool south Parkway to connect the Merseyrail line to the network, however the terrain is suitably flat and
the trains will be capable. This obvious evolution of the network did seem to take the meeting by surprise.Unfortunately the much anticipated introduction of the Class 777’s has been delayed for a number of factors,
not least of all the pandemic but border issues and storage also play a part. Trails are taking place on the Kirby
and Ormskirk lines, and full introduction might not be until as late as next year. The Liverpool City Region has a
clearly defined set of (deliverable) objectives for development of the rail network and the expansion has been
prioritised with a line to Skelmersdale being top of the list and the first step of that being a new station at Headbolt
Lane, Kirby – plans are already well developed for this. It is expected to be this line where proof of concept trails
will be conducted for the battery powered 777’s, although Merseyrail does have authorisation to use Ellesmere
Port–Helsby on account of the low traffic movements on that line! Network expansion is being considered to
Widnes via Hunts Cross and possibly as far as Warrington, but when the question of Ellesmere Port–Helsby
was raised, the route, although under consideration, was not high on the priority list. I suspect it will be at least
several years away and I’m sure the delayed introduction of the type will not only come as a disappointment for
NCRUG but also the Community Rail Partnership and CWaC Council, who have funded a basic feasibility study
into possible demand. Therefore we are left with the Northern Trains service for the foreseeable future – 3 return
trains daily on the current schedule.
After reading this extract, I am puzzled. The original priority was to use the battery capabilities of the new Class 777 trains to extend the Ellesmere Port service to Helsby.
- Ellesmere Port and Helsby stations are 5.2 miles apart.
- Ellesmere Port has a two trains per hour (tph) service to Birkenhead and Liverpool.
- Ellesmere Port and Helsby stations are linked by a three trains per day (tpd) service.
Helsby station has comprehensive connections to Chester, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester and Warrington Bank Quay station.
Two tph between Ellesmere Port and Helsby stations would certainly improve train services in the area and probably explains the disappointment shown by the writer of the newsletter.
So why have Merseyrail switched the emphasis to battery trains to Headbolt Lane and Skelmersdale from Ellesmere Port and Helsby?
Headbolt Lane Station
Headbolt Lane station is a station of an unusual design, which I wrote about in Headbolt Lane Station Fly-Through.
- Two platforms appear to face West towards Liverpool.
- One platform appears to face East towards Wigan and Manchester.
- The platforms meet head-on and a walkway runs between them to allow passengers to access all platforms.
- There appears to be provision for a fourth platform to serve Skelmersdale. which is to the East of Headbolt Lane.
I think the design means that access to all platforms is level, passengers can enter from both sides of the railway and the station doesn’t need an expensive bridge.
Between Kirkby And Headbolt Lane Stations
Headbolt Lane and Kirkby stations are a couple of miles apart at most. So were Merseyrail hoping to extend the third-rail electrification to Headbolt Lane station, but the Office of Rail and Road has more or less said that no more third-rail electrification is allowed. See ORR’s Policy On Third Rail DC Electrification Systems.
So are Merseyrail having to use battery power between Kirkby and Headbolt Lane stations?
If they are then they have the trains.
As according to the extract from the Cheshire Rail User Group’s Newsletter, the Class 777 trains have a range of twenty miles on battery power, then this should be no problem.
The Skelmersdale Shuttle
The design of Headbolt Lane station does mean that there will be no through running between Liverpool and Skelmersdale.
So it looks to me, that to allow full step-free access to all platforms, the Skelmersdale service will be a battery-electric shuttle train.
- It could also be the only train on a single-track between Headbolt Lane and Skelmersdale, which would simplify signalling and operation.
- Two tph could be possible with a single train.
- The train would be charged in either termini using an appropriate charging system.
How many other simple branch lines could be run that way or built new?
Headbolt Lane And Manchester Victoria Via Wigan Wallgate
Consider.
- The distance between Headbolt Lane and Manchester Victoria stations is just under thirty miles, which is well within range of the average battery-electric trains currently under development.
- As the current Kirkby and Manchester Victoria stations is run by Northern Trains and they are likely to be acquiring some Class 331 trains with a battery capability, these will surely be an ideal train.
- The train would be charged in the East-facing platform at Headbolt Lane station using an appropriate charging system.
Headbolt Lane station would be a diesel-free station. As incidentally, so would Kirkby and Skelmersdale stations.
Charging Trains At Headbolt Lane Station
It would appear that both East-facing platforms at Headbolt Lane station will need to charge these trains.
- A Class 777 train with a third-rail capability and the ability in the future to access overhead electrification.
- A Class 331 train with no third-rail capability and the ability to access overhead electrification.
Class 777 trains from Liverpool would hopefully have enough power in their batteries to return to Kirkby.
It would appear that a short length of 25 KVAC overhead electrification in both platforms would be ideal for charging trains to and from Manchester and Skelmersdale.
If one of Hitachi ABB Power Grids’s containerised overhead electrification power systems could handle both platforms, it would surely be ideal.
A crossover to allow Manchester and Skelmersdale trains to use either East-facing platform, might be desirable, as it could improve reliability.
Conclusion
It looks like Hitachi ABB Power Grids can provide a sensible solution to handling battery-electric trains at Headbolt Lane station. Or for that matter at any station, where battery-electric trains interface with the UK rail network.
The Anonymous Widower 