The Anonymous Widower

The Green Shift: Zero Emission Buses Could Lure Millions Onto Public Transport

The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from Go-Ahead Group.

These are the bullet points of the press release.

• A majority (55%) of people are likely to travel by bus more often if buses are powered by zero-emission electric or hydrogen batteries.
• Only a quarter of the public think bus travel in general is ‘green’. But eight out of ten view zero emission buses as ‘green’.
• Younger people are particularly likely to be swayed in their travel habits by a switch towards low emission technology
• Independent research carried out for Go-Ahead Group’s new Zero Emission Centre of Excellence.

This paragraph was their conclusion.

Buses powered by electric or hydrogen batteries could lure millions of additional passengers onto public transport according to new research into public attitudes towards travel.

The research was performed by independent research company; Savanta ComRes, who are described like this in Wikipedia.

Savanta ComRes is a market research consultancy based in London, England. Established in 2003 as Communicate Research Ltd, ComRes was a founding member of the British Polling Council in 2004, and is one of the UK’s best known polling companies.

To my mind this is the sort of market research, that can often shoot yourself in the foot, so because the result has been published by the company and would be unlikely to be rejected by customers, who would be unlikely to say no to a nice new bus, I think we’re seeing the truth here.

I would ask, whether the conclusions would apply to other forms of public transport like trains, planes and ships.

These figures show the percentage increase in passenger numbers at intermediate Gospel Oak and Barking Line stations between 2017-18 and 2021-22.

• Upper Holloway – 53 %
• Crouch Hill – 42 %
• Harringay Green Lanes – 42 %
• South Tottenham – 41 %
• Blackhorse Road – 23 %
• Walthamstow Queen’s Road – 38 %
• Leyton Midland Road – 39 %
• Leytonstone High Road – 40 %
• Wanstead Park – 55 %
• Woodgrange Park – 42 %

Note.

1. 2017-18 is pre-electrification and Covid-19
2. 2021-22 is after-electrification and Covid-19
3. Pre-electrification, the trains were modern Class 172 diesel trains, with 124 seats.
4. After electrification, the trains were modern Class 710 electric trains, with 189 seats.
5. There were only small infrastructure changes on the route between 2017 and 2021, other than the electrification and some lifts.

The average increase in passenger numbers was 41.5 %.

I can also look at the figures for London Overground stations on the Lea Valley Lines, where forty-year-old Class 315 trains were replaced with modern Class 710 trains in 2020.

• Chingford – -35 %
• Highams Park – -27 %
• Wood Street – -10 %
• Walthamstow Central – -33 %
• St, James Street – -13 %
• Clapton – -18 %
• Hackney Downs – -40 %
• London Fields – -29 %
• Cambridge Heath – -22 %
• Bethnal Green – -8 %
• Enfield Town – -35 %
• Bush Hill Park – -38 %
• Edmonton Green – -31 %
• Silver Street – -25 %
• White Hart Lane – -2 %
• Bruce Grove – -25 %
• Seven Sisters – -34 %
• Stamford Hill – -21 %
• Stoke Newington – -37 %
• Rectory Road – -38 %
• Theobalds Grove – -18 %
• Turkey Street – -29 %
• Southbury – -26 %
• Emerson Park – -36 %

Note.

1. 2017-18 is pre-Class 710 trains and Covid-19
2. 2021-22 is after-Class 710 trains and Covid-19
3. White Hart Lane is probably a low reduction because of the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has increased passenger numbers.

The average decline in passenger numbers was 26.25 %.

Analysis

It does appear that the figures for the Gospel Oak and Barking Line fit with Go-Ahead’s findings, that were published in their press release.

But why did the other Overground lines, which received new Class 710 trains have such a large decline in traffic?

I can postulate these reasons.

• There was no green transition on the other lines.
• Passengers on the Gospel Oak and Barking Line have no easy alternative form of public transport.
• Some of the competing bus routes to the Lea Valley Lines now have zero-carbon buses.
• Passengers don’t like the longitudinal seating of the Class 710 trains.
• Passengers using the Lea Valley Lines are more affluent and can work from home.
• Covid-19

It will be interesting to see how passenger numbers move in the next couple of years.

Is It Worthwhile Replacing Diesel Trains With Zero-Carbon Trains?

From the Gospel Oak and Barking figures and Go-Ahead’s press release, this will appear to be a worthwhile action.

If you get an increase in passenger numbers, when you replace the quality Class 172 trains on the Gospel Oak to Barking Line, what sort of increase would you get if you were replacing trains, that were well past their best?

Is It Worthwhile Replacing Older Electric Trains With New Zero-Carbon Trains?

The figures from the Lea Valley Lines are poor, when compared to those of the Gospel Oak to Barking Line, so unless there are other reasons, it may be better to soldier on with the existing trains.

December 10, 2022 Posted by AnonW | Energy, Hydrogen, Transport/Travel | Battery-Electric Buses, Buses, Class 172 Train, Class 315 Train, Class 710 Train, COVID-19, Decarbonisation, Go-Ahead Group, Gospel Oak And Barking Line, Hydrogen-Powered Buses, Lea Valley Lines, London Overground | 13 Comments