The Enforcer From The World Bank
Thirty or so years ago, I was going to San Jose from San Francisco airport in a limo. There were four of us sharing and one was one of the most dodgy guys I’d seen in some time. He was tall, fit, tanned and about sixty, with a long grey pony-tail, wearing cowboy boots, immaculate blue jeans and a black shirt. His only luggage was a battered brown leather hold-all. He looked just like a Columbian drug baron straight out of Central Casting. But from his accent, we could tell he was an American.
One of the guys politely asked him what he did. It turned out he’d been a US Army Colonel and he’d been recruited by the World Bank to look after projects in the rain forest. He was absolutely fascinating as he told about his work. He said that if you slash and burn the rainforest, you make just a few thousand dollars an acre, but if you harvest it selectively using the local Indians, you make many times more. He told how trees would be left until maturity and how many of the plants were collected for pharmaceuticals, leaving enough behind to collect in following years.
But he said to do this properly you needed to make tracks, which of course allowed the slash and burn merchants access to the jungle.
He also said that a lot of the problems were down to money lenders and corrupt operators, who drive the eco-system for their own selfish ends.
It was an amazing education in a limousine.
Will The Next World War Be Fought On The Internet?
If you think it won’t, just read this article on the BBC’s web site.
The Chinese will increase their hacking over the next few years and many of us will get compromised, no matter how careful we are. And let’s face it many of us don’t even have basic virus protection.
I can think of scenarios that might happen to say a fully-compromised banking network, that will make the problems of the banking industry of the last few years, seem like a children’s tea-party.
An Aussie Take On Banking
This is a must read article on the way banking is going. This is a flavour.
Apple has 400 million account holders holding an Apple Store or iTunes account, that’s more than the top 3 banks in the world have in retail banking customers. Starbucks, which processes more than 2m transactions every week in the US, took in deposits of $US3 billion on their in-store App-based debit or gift card this year. That puts them ahead of the 6,985 smaller institutions in the US who on average did around $185 million in deposits in 2011, and the 440 midsize institutions who averaged $2.6 billion in deposits. Imagine that! A coffee company that is better at taking deposits than 95 per cent of the FDIC insured banks in the US, and they don’t even have a banking license.
So are Apple and Starbucks, the next Barclays or Visa?
Traditional banking is dead!
Crowd Funding For Research
I sometimes get involved in helping research projects at Liverpool University and I will also lob small amounts of funding towards projects I think are worthwhile.
I also look into innovative ways of raising funding for individuals and businesses, like Zopa and Funding Circle. I also loan money to the Developing World using Kiva.
So can their methods be used to raise funding for research projects.
Let’s take a researcher interested in how patients manage with the gluten-free diet, they need for coeliac disease. They perhaps want to interview as many patients as possible and produce a report that highlights both the problems and the successes, possibly on a regional basis.
So they have two needs.
A small amount of money is probably required, the size of which would depend on the size and scape of the project.
The second thing, that many projects, like the mythical one I outlined, often need subjects for the research.
Surely, a properly designed system could do both.
Similar things have been done under the general heading of crowd funding. There’s more here on Wikipedia.
How would such a system work? I would steal some of the methodology from sites like Zopa and Kiva.
The on-line system would be uploaded with suitable research projects, which borrowing from Zopa’s methods, would be checked as to the veracity of the researcher.
Prospective funders and participants would join and then search for projects, they might like to support, just like you search for suitable borrowers on Kiva.
Obviously, you could also rate researchers, just as you rate buyers and sellers on eBay.
There are some obvious winners, if this could be made to work!
I know from those in Universities, I’ve talked with, that getting funding for small projects is difficult and a lot of time and money is wasted.
Are there going to be any losers? Not directly, but I suspect some charities and their inefficient structures might be by-passed.
I will probably not develop the system, but someone will! On the other hand, if anybody wants to, I’ll be happy to advise.
Zopa Do Shorter Term Loans
Zopa’s minimum loan term has generally been three years, since I have used their web site to save and invest money.
They’ve just announced that they are now going to give shorter term loans of twelve months.
I’m not sure how this will work out for lenders, but it might attract those borrowers with good credit limits, who need tiding over. It might also attract a borrower, who has never used the system and only needs a small sum for a short time and is just trying it to see if borrowing from Zopa is for them.
I wonder if Zopa are going to allow shorter term loans to be effectively rolled on. I suppose the simplest thing to do, would be to pay off the first loan and then start another. But that would be two administration fees.
The Star That Is ARM
I am linking to this article, which has the full speech of ARM’s CEO’s statement giving the Q4 2012 Financial Results. It is a full nine pages long, so it won’t be an easy read. This statement from the first page is very telling.
So let’s start off with the highlights for Q4. Well, Q4 was a fantastic finish to 2012. We saw our continued momentum in licensing and sold 36 licenses in the last quarter. That’s another year of over 100 licenses in the full year.
As someone, who used to put his own intellectual property on someone else’s hardware designs, this number of licences is a significant number, as obviously, the more licences the company signs, the more money it will earn.
I don’t know anything about the technicalities of what ARM does, but judging by the company’s success, it must be pretty damn good. But to me, just as it was for Metier Management Systems with Artemis, when we owned the company, the managers have got the marketing and revenue model right.
In fact, I might argue, that getting that right is more important than getting the product to a hundred percent of your design aims. As obviously, if you are generating lots of money, it is easier to close that last gap in your designs.
So often, I’ve seen wonderful ideas fail, because their revenue model wasn’t designed well enough and doesn’t feed itself back strong enough into product development.
There is another thing that ARM and Metier had in common. ARM is and Metier was considered a almost a crusade or political movement by those that started the companies and those that worked there. The companies that I’ve dealt with or know of, that have had that zeal are hard to come by. My short list would include Apple, Dyson, Rolls-Royce and Zopa. Although, there are one or two architectural or construction companies, that in a few years time, might join them. And don’t underestimate other companies in all sorts of high-tech fields, using an ARM-style of cash-flow model, based on a group of individuals having a unique idea and the determination to see it through.
I can also think of several companies that had everything and then blew it! You could say we did that with Metier by selling out and a lot of other high-tech companies have done the same. And then there’s some that have just lost their way like IBM and Automony.
The Mess That Is RBS
Just reading this article from the Guardian shows the mess the wunch of bankers at RBS got themselves into. Here’s an extract.
Clear thinking and firm principles are Royal Bank of Scotland’s best defence as it tries to negotiate its Libor fine, which could end in UK taxpayers, in effect, dispatching £400m to American taxpayers. But, in the case of Hourican’s exit, it’s hard to know what point RBS is trying to make. On the one hand Hourican’s head (we are led to believe) will be offered up in acknowledgement of the seriousness of the Libor penalty. On the other hand RBS is likely to undermine the force of this resignation by saying that Hourican would have departed anyway because his investment banking unit is to be split in two with the new heads of each section – markets and international – reporting directly to the chief executive, Stephen Hester. Since there’s no suggestion that Hourican knew about attempted Libor manipulation in the ranks, he will keep the bonuses he earned in past years.
The Guardian says it’s a muddle and if everybody in these Isles have to give a few quid to American taxpayers, how about we all sue Prudence, who to protect his Scottish majority, didn’t do the humane thing with RBS and liquidate it. I feel slightly sorry for Mr. Hourican, as I suspect, he’ll suffer badly at the hands of the tabloids, although it would appear he’s done nothing wrong.
My Dual Fuel Bill
I seem to pay £154 a month for this.
I wouldn’t know if that is high or low, except that it’s certainly a lot less than I used to pay in the two previous houses.
An Overview Of Peer-To-Peer Lending
I just found this excellent article about peer-to-peer lending in the Northern Echo.
On Line Loan Applications
Someone just tried to put a link to an on-line payday loan company in this post on my blog. As you can see the post is about wind power, so why would someone interested in wind power and Ireland, click away from the page to some dubious on-line loan provider?
I deleted the comment, as I always do with those that aren’t constructive to the blog.
But it got me thinking!
So I typed.
online loan application
Into Google to see what turned up.
The first page had about twenty links, of which only half were for legitimate sources in my view. The rest were in my view the on-line providers, that I find dubious.
I’ve also looked at my spam and note, there are quite a few payday loan companies trying to advertise using my site, but they have been stopped by the spam filter in WordPress.
The Anonymous Widower 