Why The Covids Are Worse In The North
Dr. Chris Smith is BBC Radio 5’s tame virologist and he talks more sense than most on the Covids.
Asked by Adrian Chiles, why the Covids are worse in the North, he made following points.
- The Covids are following a similar pattern to flu.
- Flu tends to like colder climate, so is more prevalent in the North.
- He also indicated, that because London had a bad dose of the Covids earlier in the year, London may be closer to some form of herd immunity.
If you can catch-up with what he said, it’s probably worth a listen.
Covid Humour
I have yet to hear any good humour about the covids.
Although an incident this morning at my local station was thought funny by those present at the time.
- The large lifts at the station are now limited to six passengers at a time.
- A couple of other passengers and myself, were waiting to descend, when an enormously pregnant lady appeared at the lift doors.
- She smiled and asked! “Have you got room for another two?”
- A guy in the lift, pointed to everyone and did a quick count on his fingers.
- He then said. ‘Not if you’re expecting triplets, Madam!”
We were all laughing and smiling, as we walked to the trains.
Is The NHS The Cause Of The Rise In The Covids?
I was lying in my morning bath thinking this morning and I had the heretic thought, which is the title of this post.
How many prominent people in the UK have died from an attack of the covids? There have been some at an advanced age, but generally they were suffering from something else as well!
The highest profile person to be hospitalised by the covids, has been Boris. But despite his weight and obesity, he came through it unscathed, due to excellent care in an NHS hospital!
I’m 73 now, but if I look back to my twenties and thirties, I see an optimistic, fit, slim guy, who felt he was immune from health problems. I can also only remember one of my peers at Liverpool University in the 1960s going into hospital and it was so memorable, I can’t remember what he had.
The youth of the UK, don’t think the covids will happen to them and growing up in an NHS, which has looked after their every need, when they look around them, they feel it will get them through, if they catch the virus.
So the fact that the NHS is there and got the fat Boris, through it, means that they think, they’ll be alright in the end.
Conclusion
The success of the NHS could be a factor in the rise of lab-confirmed cases of the covids.
Are other countries with good health systems, that coped with the first wave, xperiencing a second one?
Getting A Flu Jab
Ten days ago, I got a text message from my GP’s surgery, asking me to make an appointment for a flu jab.
I have phoned several times since and have not got through successfully. As I also need a B12 injection and some more Warfarin, for which I might need a quick chat on the phone from my doctor, it is getting increasingly important that I get through.
Dr. Rosemary Leonard on the BBC this morning, said that there were a lot of people wanting flu jabs this year, so I may march in to Boots, as was suggested in the text message.
Incidentally, why can the GP Surgery text me, but they have no simple way I can text or send them an e-mail from a form with Capcha to sort the bad from the good?
Healthcare and computing seem to have a match made in hell!
Is Trump’s Recovery From The The Covids Down To His Mother?
Donald Trump’s mother was born Mary Anne MacLeod at Tong on the Isle of Lewis in Scotland.
This Google Map shows the position of Tong to the island’s capital of Stornoway.
This is Wikipedia’s introduction to the village.
Tong is a village on the Isle of Lewis, Scotland, 4 miles (6 kilometres) northeast of the main town of Stornoway on the B895 road to Back and Tolsta. The population of the village is 527 (2001 census). Fishing forms part of the local economy.
Families probably have to have granite in their genes to survive in places like that for decades.
By reputation, Highlanders are not wimps.
I have just looked up the rate of the covids in the Highlands.
The latest figure of lab-confirmed cases is 185.7 per 100,000 of the population, which compares to 617 for the whole of Scotland and 1952.4 for Manchester.
Is there something in Highland genes, that resists the covids?
Screening For Coeliac Disease
People ask me if they should be screened for coeliac disease.
This page on Coeliac UK is entitled Screening For Coeliac Disease.
They quote this advice from NICE.
NICE has advised that people with close relatives (for example father, mother, son, daughter, brother, sister) are at increased risk of coeliac disease and so should be considered for screening. This would involve having a blood test in the first instance.
That sounds fairly sensible to me.
Coronavirus: Can I Be Infected By Touching Surfaces?
The title of this post is the same as that of an article on The Sunday Times.
The article is worth reading.
These two paragraphs some up the latest thoughts on infection from surfaces.
Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, told the US science website Nautilus that there had been “a lot of fear” at the beginning of the pandemic about transmission of the virus if people touched their faces after contact with metal, plastic or other contaminated surfaces, collectively known to scientists as fomites.
Yet the evidence suggests that the virus on most surfaces is not strong enough to make people ill. “It’s not through surfaces,” she added. “It’s from being close to someone spewing virus from their nose and mouth, without in most cases knowing they are doing so.”
I travel around the Underground a lot and I’m always masked, when I enter stations and usually use the hand-sanitisers, at least once on a trip. Most in London, seem to be acting similarly.
There has been no scares about using the Underground because of high-rates of the covids in recent months, that I can find.
More importantly, under a sub-title of Why Are Young Women The Targets Now?, this is the first paragraph.
The disease that ravaged care homes and turned the elderly into hermits for much of the spring has taken aim at different targets this autumn. Public Health England’s most recent statistics show that the 20-29 age group has had the most new cases since the end of June, followed closely by the 30-39 age group. In both those groups, more women are being infected than men.
This is paragraph is from the NHS web site.
Reported cases of coeliac disease are around 3 times higher in women than men. It can develop at any age, although symptoms are most likely to develop: during early childhood – between 8 and 12 months old, although it may take several years before a correct diagnosis is made.
Could this paragraph partly explain, the fact that women in their twenties and thirties are suffering from the covids?
Coeliac disease affects one in fifty of the population.
As a coeliac, it’s no hard task to stick to a gluten-free diet.
And I get the bonus of being 25 % less likely to suffer from cancer, according to peer-reviewed research from Nottingham University.
A Curious Link Between Pancreatic Cancer And COVID-19
i am involved in fund raising for pancreatic cancer research at Liverpool University, because my youngest son died of the awful disease, at just thirty-seven, leaving a widow and an eight-year-old daughter.
I am also a passionate analyser of data and databases.
For a few weeks now, I have had a feeling that there is a connection between pancreatic cancer and the old Austro-Hungarian Empire.
I found this simple description of the Austro-Hungarian Empire on this page on the Internet.
The former Austro-Hungarian Empire was spread over a large part of Central Europe, it comprises present Austria and Hungary as well as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bosnia, Croatia and parts of present Poland, Romania, Italy, Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia and Montenegro.
I had been looking at pancreatic cancer data on the World Life Expectancy database, which is based on World Health Organisation data.
I have built this table, which shows the top twenty countries for a death rate from pancreatic cancer.
These are the columns.
- Country
- Rate of pancreatic cancer deaths per 100,000 of the population.
- Quarantine or Travel Corridor based on this page of the Government web site.
- Member of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
These are the top twenty countries.
- Hungary – 11.35 – Quarantine – AHE
- Uruguay – 10.72 – Quarantine
- Armenia – 10.34 – Quarantine
- Malta – 10.01 – Quarantine
- Czech Republic – 9.89 – Quarantine – AHE
- Estonia – 9.26 – Travel Corridor
- Iceland – 9.21 – Quarantine
- Israel – 9.18 – Quarantine
- Slovakia – 9.17 – Quarantine – AHE
- Austria – 9.13 – Quarantine – AHE
- Finland – 8.78 – Travel Corridor
- Japan – 8.74 – Travel Corridor
- Latvia – 8.72 – Travel Corridor
- Germany – 8.68 – Travel Corridor
- Slovenia – 8.55 – Quarantine – AHE
- Denmark – 8.51 – Quarantine
- Netherlands – 8.38 – Quarantine
- Croatia – 8.30 – Quarantine – AHE
- Lithuania – 8.21 – Travel Corridor
- Luxembourg – 8.15 – Quarantine
Note.
- I would hope that the Government’s Travel Corridor list has been devised in a scientifically-correct manner.
- Am I right to assume that the Travel Corridor list is a good measure of the level of Covid-19 in the country?
- The pancreatic cancer data is from 2018.
Of the countries I mentioned earlier, as being partly in the Austro-Hungarian Empire, only Montenegro is in the top thirty countries for pancreatic cancer deaths.
My Thoughts On The Data
These are my thoughts on the data.
The Significance Of The Austro-Hungarian Empire
Consider.
- All the countries that were fully or partly in the Austro-Hungarian Empire are on the Government Quarantine List, with the exception of Italy.
- Many will argue, including myself, that Italy, has too high a Covid-19 rate for a visit.
- Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia are in the top twenty countries for pancreatic cancer deaths.
It looks to me, that there is a correlation in there somewhere.
Germany And Japan Are The Odd Ones Out
The list of countries with high levels of pancreatic cancer, where there is no quarantine are.
- Estonia
- Finland
- Japan
- Latvia
- Germany
- Lithuania
If you eliminate the Baltic States and Finland from the worse countries for pancreatic cancer, you’re left with Germany and Japan.
Is There A Jewish Dimension?
I ask this question for these reasons.
- Israel is eighth on the pancreatic cancer list and has high levels of Covid-19 according to various news reports, like this one on the BBC, which is entitled Coronavirus: Israel Tightens Second Lockdown Amid Acrimony.
- I am not Jewish, but my great-great-great-grandfather from Konigsberg probably was and it looks like I inherited my coeliac disease from him and gave it to my son, who died from pancreatic cancer.
- The Baltic States and Finland, don’t seem to have large Jewish populations for various reasons and they have high levels of pancreatic cancer, but low levels of Covid-19.
- Germany has the third largest Jewish population in Europe, but seems to have done well in fighting Covid-19. Is that because their well-funded healthcare system has worked?
- Wikipedia states that, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was favourable to the Jews and even a sizeable numbers of its Army officers in Word War One were Jewish.
- According to reports locally and my observations, it appears that the Jewish community in Hackney, where I live has been badly hit by Covid-19.
I need an appropriate historian to give me answers.
Conclusion
I believe the correlation between pancreatic cancer and Covid-19 could be rather strong. More research needs to be done, as to why.
But I do wonder, if undiagnosed coeliac disease, as in my son, could be the alligator in the swamp.
Undiagnosed coeliacs seem to have poor immune systems, which makes them more susceptible to everything, that’s going around.
The more I learn about coeliac disease and its myriad effects on health, the more I’m convinced that it should be one of the diseases checked for in all young children.
It would certainly have changed my miserable always-ill childhood for the better.
A Useful Tool
The Times has added a useful tool to its web site, which shows the latest figures for the covids, according to a particular post code. It also shows the rules that apply.
This is the display for Hackney, where I live.
And this is the one for Liverpool, where I go regularly, although, I’ve only been once since March.
I shall use these displays to check before I travel.
Perhaps, The Times or another organ, should do something of a similar ilk for countries and places, we might want to visit.
Thoughts On COVID-19 On Merseyside
Merseyside is in trouble with the covids.
These are the number of lab confirmed cases per 100,000 population for local authorities in the area, as of the 1st October 2020.
- Halton – 1108.1
- Knowsley – 1388
- Liverpool – 1244.5
- Sefton – 1037.6
- St. Helens – 1230.4
- Wirral – 1185.5
My London Borough of Hackney, which is demographically, a bit like poorer parts of Liverpool, has a rate of 524.3.
But the gold standard to my mind is Cambridge, which has a rate of only 380.6.
Oxford, which is a very similar city to Cambridge has a much higher rate of 799.5,
Why Is Cambridge Doing So Well?
I was diagnosed as a coeliac at Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge, twenty-three years ago.
According to my consultant in the City at the time, Cambridge has a VERY high level of diagnosed coeliacs.
He told me, that he had more coeliac patients, than any other gastroenterologist in the UK.
So why is the number of coeliacs so high in Cambridge?
I feel it is because Cambridge had a Whack-a-Coeliac policy in the 1990s, where they attempted to diagnose as many coeliacs as they could find.
I was certainly diagnosed at that time and judging by the speed they did the initial diagnosis, I suspect, they were using one of the first genetic tests. They were also doing endoscopies without anaesthetic to increase throughput!
Coeliacs, Cancer And The Covids
Diagnosed coeliacs on a gluten-free diet have a strong immune system, which helps protect them from cancer, as has been shown by Joe West at Nottingham University.
I should also add, that none of my coeliac acquaintances have had a severe dose of the covids.
So does our stronger immune systems give us protection from the covids?
This could explain, why an area like Cambridge has a lower level of the covids than Oxford.
Why Is Merseyside In Trouble?
The Irish, because of historic famine, have higher levels of coeliac disease.
Comedians from the City have joked about Liverpool being the capital of Ireland for decades.
Could it be that there is a high percentage of undiagnosed coeliacs on Merseyside?
If this is true, could these undiagnosed coeliacs, with poorer immune systems, be easy pickings for the covids?
Conclusion
These actions should be taken.
- Merseyside needs a Whack-a-Coeliac policy, if it doesn’t have one! It would certainly, improve cancer rates!
- Every in-patient with the covids, should be given a quick blood test for coeliac disease.
- Other research needs to be done to find out the any link between coeliac disease and the covids!
Not for nothing is coeliac disease regularly called the Many-Headed Hydra by some doctors and researchers.
The Anonymous Widower 