Covid: Genes Hold Clues To Why Some People Get Severely Ill
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the opening paragraph.
Why some people with coronavirus have no symptoms and others get extremely ill is one of the pandemic’s biggest puzzles.
It is now less of a puzzle, thanks to research led by the University of Edinburgh.
These paragraphs explain the methodology.
Scientists looked at the DNA of patients in more than 200 intensive care units in UK hospitals.
They scanned each person’s genes, which contain the instructions for every biological process – including how to fight a virus.
Their genomes were then compared with the DNA of healthy people to pinpoint any genetic differences, and a number were found – the first in a gene called TYK2.
One of the other genes mentioned is IFNAR2, where this was said.
Variations in a gene called IFNAR2 were also identified in the intensive care patients.
IFNAR2 is linked to a potent anti-viral molecule called interferon, which helps to kick-start the immune system as soon as an infection is detected.
It’s thought that producing too little interferon can give the virus an early advantage, allowing it to quickly replicate, leading to more severe disease.
I know a bit about interferon and I must admit I’ve made a bit of profit on shares in Synairgen, which are linking interferon with an inhaler.
I then typed “coeliac disease and interferon” into Google and found this article on The Lancet, which is entitled Onset Of Coeliac Disease and Interferon Treatment.
My medical knowledge is very limited, but it does appear that if you are coeliac on a gluten-free diet, you don’t get any problems, with interferon.
The plot thickens!
Not for nothing, do some doctors call coeliac disease, the Many-Headed Hydra.
Syon Lane Station – 7th December 2020
The step-free footbridge at Syon Lane station has been completed and open for some time now.
I took these pictures today.
Note.
- The footbridge only has one lift on Platform 2.
- The step-free route to Platform 1 is a level footpath, which leads to the bus stop.
- There are three sets of stairs, two to Platform 2 and one to Platform 1.
- There is also a seat designed for Covid-19.
My first post on this project was Syon Lane Station To Go Step-Free, which was posted on April 30, 2019.
These smaller rail projects must be built in a more timely manner.
Thoughts On Mass Vaccination
We should steal an idea from the French.
In the first wave of the virus, they had to move seriously ill patients all over the country and to Germany, where there was bed space.
So they converted a TGV to a hospital train.
This page on the SNCF web site, is entitled Covid-10: Behind the Scenes Of Our High-Speed Hospital Train.
Could we not create a Vaccination Train using one of the recently withdrawn InterCity 125s?
They are easily shortened to any convenient length and the carriages have a very smooth ride.
The French converted their hospital train in 48 hours, so surely we can do as well!
The trains have the advantage, that they are certified go to over ninety percent of UK main line railway stations.
Network Rail have a track inspection train, called the New Measurement Train, that works a pattern all over the UK. It is based on an InterCity 125 and is full of delicate instruments, designed to keep the railways of the UK safe.
The picture shows Network Rail’s New Measurement Train at Westbury station.
The Vaccination Train or Trains could be based at a convenient central location, where the vaccine would be safely stored.
- Trains would be loaded overnight with the vaccine and other stores and locate early to their site for the day.
- Sites would typically be stations, where a platform existed that was long enough for the train.
- Staff to both process the vaccine and treat patients could either go on the train or be drawn from local medical staff, or be a mixture of the two.
- Specialists handling the vaccine would probably come from the centre, as this would ensure totally correct handling of the vaccine.
- They would set up at a suitable site and handle the patients booked for the day.
- Injections could even take place on the train, in specially fitted out carriages.
I would think, that the train would be self contained and generate all its own electricity.
Why I’ll Delay Having The Coronavirus Vaccine
The vaccines are coming for the covids, but I won’t be having a jab, if one is offered to me, in the first round. I may not be offered one, as I am only 73 and in good health.
But there are many out there, who need the vaccine more than I do, who will be given lower priority than myself.
So I’ll wait!
I am also a diagnosed coeliac on a gluten-free diet and my statistical researches and news reports, show that communities and groups with high levels of undiagnosed coeliacs have suffered badly from the covids.
These communities and groups include.
- Anybody born before 1960, as there was no test for coeliac disease in children before then.
- Ashkenazi Jews. My coeliac genes come from an ancestor in this group.
- Irish
- Caribbean. West Africans have a tendency to coeliac disease and what better way to bring it out, than starve them on slave ships and feed them on only bread and water.
I have also found a research paper, that shows, that India could now experience a coeliac disease epidemic, caused by modern strains of wheat. See Coeliac Disease: Can We Avert The Impending Epidemic In India?
Coeliacs on a gluten-free diet, are an interesting group, in that according to peer-reviewed research by Joe West of Nottingham University, they are 25 % less likely to suffer from cancer.
How can one disease protect you from another?
My coeliac disease was indicated by low-levels of B12, as gluten was damaging my gut and stopping it absorbing vital vitamins. By removing the gluten from my diet, my B12 levels returned to normal.
So it’s the diet that protects my health.
If you think, you are coeliac, don’t be put off by horror stores of multiple endoscopies and the difficulty of sticking to a gluten-free diet. I may have been one of the first individuals tested, by the current genetic method, which is now used by most GPs. A blood sample is sent off for a test and that is generally all that is done in most cases. I heard in 48 hours.
So why is it beneficial in the case of cancer?
It can only be, that with all those vitamins, coeliacs on a gluten-free diet have a very healthy immune system.
So does, this immune system, help protect coeliacs from the covids?
Until proven otherwise, my statistical research, thinks it does!
So I believe, that I can afford to wait.
Has Good Project Management Helped The UK Get The Vaccine Early?
Professor Van-Tam, this morning on BBC Breakfast, praised the planning of the drug companies and the various health bodies in charge of certification of the vaccines.
As someone, who was at the heart of the Project Management Revolution in the 1970s and 1980s, this cheers me.
Looking back, my biggest contribution to project management, was to prove that you didn’t need to use a large mainframe computer and software would work on a small desk-sized machine and ultimately on a personal computer, thus bringing project management to everyone.
What Has Gone Wrong In Kent?
The population of the county is 1.855 million, as opposed to Greater Manchester’s 2.822. So its population is about two-thirds of that of Greater Manchester.
Over the last few days Kent has had around 500-700 new cases of the covids per day as opposed to about 150 per day in Greater Manchester. Liverpool is less than 100.
Stonehenge A303 Tunnel Plan Approved By Transport Secretary
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the introductory paragraph.
A controversial plan to dig a £2.4bn road tunnel near Stonehenge has been approved by the Transport Secretary.
As a non-driver, who would prefer to travel to the South West by train, I have no definite opinion on the proposed scheme.
However, I do hope that the design has taken full account of the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Will more decide to holiday at home?
- Will more buy holiday homes in Cornwall and Devon?
- Will the road attract more traffic, as most do?
I do feel though, that it will be some years before construction starts, as if ever there was a project, that will be a pot of gold lawyers, then this is it!
The Bell Tolls For Covid-19
I have just watched Sir John Bell; the Regius Professor of Medicine at the University of Oxford talking about the Pfizer vaccine and his emotional response to it, where he shouted “Yes, yes yes!” and threw his arms in the air on BBC Radio 4. Sir John and another Oxford academic; Melinda Mills are talking about multiple vaccines.
They certainly felt that we’re on our way back to normality.
The End Of The Beginning
At 16:08 on the 9th of November 2020, I sent this text message to the BBC.
Churchill would have dubbed Pfizer’s news the End of the Beginning in the War against the Covids!
Then at 17:00 Boris used the same phrase in his Press Conference.
Wikipedia says this about Churchill’s use of the phrase.
A quotation from a 1942 speech by Winston Churchill concerning the Second Battle of El Alamein.
The Second Battle of El Alamein was fought between the 23rd of October and the 11th of November 1942. So exactly, seventy-eight years ago, the battle was coming to a close.
As a biographer of Churchill, did Boris spot the historical link?
Let’s hope Boris, Macron, Biden, Merkel, Trudeau et al, get the chance to paraphrase another of Churchill’s quotes about the very different battle.
It may almost be said, “Before Alamein we never had a victory. After Alamein we never had a defeat”
Let’s hope Pfizer’s vaccine is our generation’s Alamein and marks the turning point in the War against the Covids.
Certainly, the news has been well-received by experts, including Jeremy Farrar of the Welcome Trust, who was being interviewed by the BBC, when the news broke.
I am 73 and my parents told me how Alamein and other news like it, stiffened the sinews and summoned up the blood in the dark days of World War II!
A Trip To Grantham Station – 4th November 2020
I hadn’t intended to go to Grantham station, but that’s what I did on the last day before lockdown.
Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve been talking to a guy in Lincolnshire, who read Energy In North-East Lincolnshire, on this blog.
Last week, we both realised that we’d worked together in the 1970s, when he worked at a bank in the City, and I did some data analysis for the section, where he worked.
He is unwell with cancer at the moment and suggested I come down and see him in Skegness, where he now lives with his wife.
So I arrived at Grantham and found that the connecting train was running nearly an hour late and even then it was terminating at Boston.
After a quick exchange of texts, I told him the bad news and he gave me the good news, that his condition had improved and would be able to see me after Christmas and/or lockdown.
Luckily, I was able to change my ticket and took the next train back to London, after taking these pictures of the station.
I just had time to have a last drink of Aspall cyder before lockdown, in the station bar.
These are some thoughts.
Platform Layout At Grantham
The Wikipedia entry for Grantham station says this about the platforms.
It is composed of four platforms; platforms 1 and 2 are on the East Coast Main Line and are responsible for express services between London and Scotland. Platform 1 serves exclusively London King’s Cross via Peterborough and Stevenage; Platform 2 serves cities of northern England and Edinburgh. Platform 2, 3 and 4 are formed from a large island platform structure. Platform 3 is a bay platform at the northern end of the station that is used to allow local trains to reverse, while Platform 4 is a two-way platform that is used by East Midlands Railway. Only Platform 1 has amenities, including toilets, refreshments and a buffet.
This Google Map shows the station.
Note.
- Platforms are numbered 1 to 4 from East to West.
- Platforms 1 and 2 are long enough to take two five-car Class 800 trains working as a pair.
- Platform 4 may be long enough for these pairs of trains or could be made so.
- All trains to and from Nottingham call in Platform 4.
- Trains from Nottingham to Peterborough call in Platform 4 before crossing over to the down lines.
- There would appear to be no easy way for a Southbound train on the East Coast Main Line to access Platform 4.
- Platform 3 didn’t get much use on the day I visited.
There is also an avoiding line to allow freight and other passing trains to avoid going through the platforms.
Services Through Grantham Station
Services stopping at Grantham are as follows.
- LNER – One tp2h – London Kings Cross and Harrogate via Stevenage, Grantham, Doncaster, Wakefield Westgate, Leeds
- LNER – One tp2h – London Kings Cross and Bradford Forster Square via Stevenage, Grantham, Doncaster, Wakefield Westgate, Leeds
- LNER – One tp2h – London Kings Cross and Lincoln via Stevenage, Peterborough, Grantham and Newark North Gate
- LNER – One tp2h – London Kings Cross and York via Stevenage, Peterborough, Grantham, Newark North Gate, Retford and Doncaster.
- Hull Trains – Five tpd – London Kings Cross and Hull via Stevenage, Grantham, Retford, Doncaster, Selby, Howden and Brough
- Hull Trains – Two tpd – London Kings Cross and Beverley via Stevenage, Grantham, Retford, Doncaster, Selby, Howden, Brough, Hull and Cottingham.
- East Midlands Railway – One tph – Liverpool Lime Street and Horwich via Peterborough and Nottingham
- East Midlands Railway – One tph – Nottingham and Skegness
Note.
- tph is trains per hour
- tp2h is trains per two hours.
- tpd is trains per day.
Adding the services together, there is a frequent service between Stevenage, Peterborough, Grantham and Newark North Gate.
Train Timings Between London Kings Cross and Grantham
The fastest trains take 67 minutes between London Kings Cross and Grantham.
- The distance is 105.5 miles
- This would be an average speed of 94.5 mph.
- The East Coast Main Line is being upgraded with in-cab digital ERTMS signalling, which will allow 140 mph running.
- The works at Kings Cross station will have increased the station’s capacity.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a time between London Kings Cross and Grantham, of under an hour, time-tabled in the near future.
Could There Be A London Kings Cross and Nottingham Service Via Grantham?
On this page on UK Rail Forums, this was posted in 2010.
According to today’s East Midlands news on BBC1, Network Rail is considering inviting tenders to run a faster service from Nottingham to London King’s Cross via Grantham, from 2014. The present service of around 1hr 45m is considered too slow by passengers.
How would this new service be reconciled with the much-publicised capacity constraints at Welwyn and at King’s Cross itself? Will the proposed possible service be diesel-powered under the wires from Grantham, or will the Grantham-Nottingham stretch be electrified? Interesting times.
Technology has changed since 2010 and the East Coast Main Line has improved.
- King;s Cross station is being sorted.
- Digital ERMTS signalling is coming to the East Coast Main Line
- Hatachi’s new Class 800 trains have arrived and could go between Grantham and Nottingham on diesel power.
- Grantham and Nottingham takes 35 minutes on a service with three stops, that’s timed for a Class 153 train.
- Grantham and Nottingham is just over twenty miles.
As I said earlier, that I believe Grantham and London could be inside an hour, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Nottingham and London Kings Cross service in under an-hour-and-a-half.
But it could be better than that?
Hitachi’s Regional Battery Train
This is the train that could unlock the potential of a London Kings Cross and Nottingham service.
This Hitachi infographic gives details of the train.
Note that the train has a range of 90 kilometres or 56 miles, at speeds of up to 100 mph.
The trains would be ideal for a London Kings Cross and Nottingham service.
- They would charge the batteries, whilst using the electrification on the East Coast Main Line.
- The battery range is such, that it would not need any charging between leaving Grantham and returning there from Nottingham.
- They could travel at speeds of up to 140 mph on the East Coast Main Line, once the digital ERTMS signalling is installed.
- Stops could be at Stevenage, Peterborough and Grantham.
LNER’s five-car Class 800 trains, which are branded Azumas can be turned into Regional Battery Trains, by replacing the three diesel engines with battery packs.
I would suspect that times of around eighty minutes, between London Kings Cross and Nottingham, could be in order.
A Park-And-Ride For Nottingham And London
Nottingham has several Park-and-Ride sites, that are served by the trams. of the Nottingham Express Transit, which already calls at Nottingham station.
Would another site on the rail line between Grantham and Nottingham be useful?
This map shows. where the rail line crosses the A46, near its junction with the A52.
Note the Grantham and Nottingham line running across the top of the map and the big junction between the A52 and the A46.
It looks to be a good place for a Park-and-Ride station, if it was decided one needed to be built.
There might also be sites further in towards Nottingham, close to the racecourse or the Holme Pierpoint National Watersports Centre.
A Combined Nottinghamshire And Lincolnshire Service
I originally called this section a Combined Nottingham And Lincoln Service, but I don’t see why it can’t serve most of both counties.
Consider.
- Birmingham, Brighton, Cambridge, Oxford and Southend get two services from the capital by different routes.
- Hitachi’s Class 800 trains can Split/Join in around two minutes.
- Running five-car Class 800 trains all the way between London Kings Cross and Lincoln is not a good use of a valuable train path on the East Coast Main Line.
- Lincoln is just 16.5 miles and 24 minutes from the East Coast Main Line.
- Nottingham is 22 miles and could be 20 minutes from the East Coast Main Line.
- Both Lincoln and Nottingham would be in battery range for a return trip from the East Coast Main Line.
- Platforms 1, 2 and 4, at Grantham are long enough to handle two Class 800 trains, running as a pair and regularly pairs call in Platforms 1 and 2.
I believe it would be possible for a pair of Regional Battery Trains to do the following.
- Leave London Kings Cross and run to Grantham in an hour, stopping at Stevenage and Peterborough.
- Stop in Platform 4 at Grantham station, where the trains would split.
- One train would continue on the East Coast Main Line to Newark North Gate station, where it would leave the East Coast Main Line and go to Lincoln.
- The other train would continue to Nottingham.
Note.
- Coming back, the process would be reversed with trains joining in Platform 1 or Platform 4 at Grantham.
- There may need to be some track and signalling modifications, but nothing too serious or challenging.
Connections to other parts of Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire would be as follows.
- Nottingham and Nottinghamshire would be connected using the Nottingham Express Transit and the Robin Hood and Maid Marian Lines from Nottingham station.
- All stations between Grantham and Nottingham would be reached from either Grantham or Nottingham.
- All stations to Boston and Skegness would be reached from Grantham.
- All stations between Newark and Lincoln would be reached from either Lincoln or Newark.
- All stations between Doncaster and Lincoln would be reached from either Doncaster or Lincoln.
- All stations between Peterborough and Lincoln would be reached from either Lincoln or Peterborough.
- All stations to Market Rasen, Grimsby Town and Cleethorpes would be reached from Lincoln.
Note.
- I feel that some Lincoln services could be extended to Cleethorpes via Market Rasen and Grimsby Town.
- Hopefully, a timetable could be developed, so that no connection was overly long.
Most of the distances are not unduly long and I would hope that most secondary services could be battery electric trains, which would be charged in the larger stations like Boston, Cleethorpes, Doncaster, Grantham, Lincoln, Mansfield, Nottingham, Peterborough, Sleaford, Spalding and Worksop.
Doncaster, Grantham and Peterborough already have 25 KVAC overhead electrification and this could be used to charge the trains, with possibly some small extensions.
The other stations will need a number of systems to charge the trains, as they pass through.
Some stations will be suitable for the installation of the standard 25 KVAC overhead electrification, but others will need specialised charging systems.
It appears that Adrian Shooter of Vivarail has just announced a One-Size-Fits-All Fast Charge system, that has been given interim approval by Network Rail.
I discuss this charger in Vivarail’s Plans For Zero-Emission Trains, which is based on a video on the Modern Railways web site.
There is more about Vivarail’s plans in the November 2020 Print Edition of the magazine, where this is said on page 69.
‘Network Rail has granted interim approval for the fast charge system and wants it to be the UK’s standard battery charging system’ says Mr. Shooter. ‘We believe it could have worldwide implications.’
Vivarail’s Fast Charge system must surely be a front-runner for installation.
What frequency of the Combined Nottinghamshire And Lincolnshire service would be needed and could be run?
Consider.
- Currently, Lincoln is served with one tp2h with a five-car Class 800 train running the service.
- The Lincoln service alternates with a one tp2h service to York, which also calls at Retford and Doncaster.
- Work is progressing on increasing the number of high speed paths on the East Coast Main Line.
Obviously, an hourly service to both Nottingham and Lincoln would be ideal and would give most of the two counties an hourly service to and from London Kings Cross with a single change at either Doncaster, Grantham. Lincoln, Newark, Nottingham or Peterborough.
- An hourly service might be difficult to timetable because of the York service.
- But I don’t believe it would be impossible to setup.
Especially if after, the Eastern leg of High Speed Two opens, East Coast Main Line services from London Kings Cross to North of York are replaced in part, by High Speed Two services.
The Effect Of High Speed Two
High Speed Two will build a new station at Toton called East Midlands Hub station.
- The station will be situated about halfway between Nottingham and Derby, with frequent connections to both cities.
- There will be frequent services to Birmingham, Leeds, London, Newcastle and Sheffield.
- I wouldn’t be surprised to see a direct service to Edinburgh and Glasgow from the station.
- There will be a lot of economic growth around the station.
I very much feel, that a lot of passengers were travel to East Midlands Hub station for both long distance trains and to access the Derby-Nottingham area.
A Cambridge And Birmingham Service
In How Many Trains Are Needed To Run A Full Service On High Speed Two?, I proposed a Cambridge and Birmingham Curzon Street service.
This is what I said.
The obvious one is surely Cambridge and Birmingham
- It would run via Peterborough, Grantham, Nottingham and East Midlands Hub.
- It would connect the three big science, engineering and medical centres in the Midlands and the East.
- It would use High Speed Two between Birmingham Curzon Street and East Midlands Hub.
- It could be run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
It might even be a replacement for CrossCountry’s Stansted Airport and Birmingham service.
Timings for the various legs could be.
- Cambridge and Peterborough – CrossCountry – 49 minutes
- Peterborough and Grantham – LNER – 19 minutes
- Grantham and Nottingham -Best Estimate – 20 minutes
- Nottingham and Birmingham Curzon Street – Midlands Rail Engine – 33 minutes
Note.
- This totals to two hours and one minute.
- The current service takes two hours and forty-four minutes.
- The Ely and Peterborough and Grantham and Nottingham legs are not electrified.
If the route were to be fully electrified or the trains were to be fitted with batteries, the time via High Speed Two, would surely be several minutes under two hours.
Conclusion
These objectives are possible.
- An hourly service between London Kings Cross and Grantham, Lincoln, Newark and Nottingham.
- A very much more comprehensive train service for Nottingham and Lincolnshire.
- A two hour service between Cambridge and Birmingham.
Most of the services would be zero carbon.
No major infrastructure would be needed, except possibly completing the electrification between Nottingham and Ely, some of which is probably needed for freight trains anyway.
Alternatively, the High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains could be fitted with batteries.
Second Time Around For A Lockdown
What is different this time around, is that I’ve had three months practice and I believed it would come, so I stocked up with essentials.
My Dalstonista grandmother regretted in the Great War, she didn’t stock up, so wasn’t caught out in the Second, with a hundredweight of both jam and sugar in the cellar.
My essentials are a bit different.
- Adnams Beer – 0.5 % alcohol.
- Tins of sardines in tomato.
- Gluten-free pasta
- Muesli
- Pots of porridge.
- Pots of M & S luxury honey & ginger yoghurt. For adding to fruit, muesli and as a pasta sauce.
- Ready meals in the freezer.
I would assume, I can get gluten-free bread, bananas, milk and eggs, when I need them.
Gloria Gaynor’s song is in my brain.
The Anonymous Widower 