Is There A Link Between Historic Coal Mining And COVID-19?
In Air Pollution May Be ‘Key Contributor’ To Covid-19 Deaths – Study, I wrote about the link between current pollution and COVID-19, that had been shown by European researchers.
Today, in The Times, there is an article, which is entitled Pressure To Free London From Lockdown As Cases Fall.
It talks about the areas, that are recording the most new cases of confirmed COVID-19 in the last fortnight.
The article says this.
Only one area south of Birmingham is in the 20 local authorities with the most coronavirus cases in the past two weeks, while those with fewest are clustered in the south, an analysis of official figures by The Times shows.
That local authority in the top twenty is Ashford.
i have looked at all the data in The Times and this table shows the number of cases in the last fortnight in decreasing order.
- Birmingham – 266
- County Durham – 209
- Manchester – 184
- Bradford – 168
- Sandwell – 164
- Wigan – 156
- Shropshire – 155
- Cheshire West and Chester – 151
- Sheffield – 144
- Cheshire East – 135
- Leeds – 138
- East Riding Of Yorkshire 129
- Barnsley – 126
- Tameside – 124
- Doncaster – 121
- Ashford – 118
- Stoke – 117
- Wirral – 107
- Trafford – 102
- Folkestone and Hythe – 99
- Leicester – 99
- Bolton – 94
- North Somerset – 94
- Oldham – 93
- Stockton-on-Tees – 93
- Oxford – 90
Note.
- Why is Cheshire in the top half of the list?
- There seem to be a lot of coal mining areas on the list.
- Ashford and Folkestone and Hythe are even close to the former Kent coalfield.
I’d love to see Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish data added to this list!
Is Coal A Factor?
Given the large number of coal-mining areas featuring in my list, I very much feel that there should be a serious analysis to see if working in the mines or growing up in a coal-mining area, is a factor related to the chances of catching COVID-19.
I should say, that my only personal memories of British coal mines working, was to see the mines in Kent, as we drove to see by uncle in Broadstairs. They were filthy places.
The Cheshire Paradox
Cheshire doesn’t have any coal mining, but it does have a lot of chemical works and oil refineries along the Mersey, many of which use Cheshire’s most valuable natural resource – salt.
When I worked at ICI, I was told that there was enough salt underneath the green fields of Cheshire to last several thousand years, at the current rate of extraction.
There was also the ICI office joke about pensions.
You would get a good pension from ICI, as the pension scheme was well-funded and also because so many pensioners, after a lifetime of working amongst all the smells and dusts of a chemical works, which gave the lungs a good clear out, didn’t live long in the fresh air of normal life and caught every cold, cough and flu doing the rounds.
The three Cheshire areas have these numbers of total confirmed cases per 100,000 residents.
- Cheshire East – 304
- Cheshire West and Chester – 312
- Wirral – 378
These compare closely to nearby Liverpool with 319.
But look at these figures of a similar county around London, that from personal experience is similar to Cheshire.
- East Hertfordshire – 176
- North Hertfordshire – 171
So have all the chemicals in the historic Cheshire air, softened up the population for COVID-19?
I used the word historic, as pollution in the seventies in Cheshire/Merseyside was much higher, than it is today.
COVID-19 Pandemic In Cambodia
The title of this post, is the same as this entry in Wikipedia.
This is the introductory paragraph.
The first case relating to the COVID-19 pandemic was confirmed in Cambodia on 27 January 2020. According to Global Health Security Index’s report in 2019, Cambodia ranked 89th out of 195 countries in preparedness for infectious disease outbreak.
It doesn’t prepare you well for the remarkable statistics from the country, given in the Wikipedia entry.
- Confirmed cases – 123
- Tests conducted – 15,162 as of 17th May
- Active case – 1
- Recovered – 122
- Deaths – 0
The Wikipedia entry then lists all of the cases in detail.
I know we can say that any country with an important amount of revenue from tourism can massage the statistics, but I do feel that the data is reasonably scientifically correct.
So why are Cambodia’s statistics so remarkable?
I have never visited Cambodia, but Cambodian cuisine used to be recognised as completely gluten-free, when I was diagnosed as a coeliac by Addenbrooke’s hospital in 1997. I was told by a dietician at the hospital, who joked that someone should start a Cambodian restaurant in Cambridge
There is sufficient data on the Wikipedia entry to almost do a professional track and trace and it appears that several cases came from a cruise ship and others from foreign travel.
But even so, only 52 Cambodians have been admitted to hospital with Covid-19 and all have survived.
Could it be that their diet gives them a strong immune system?
I seem to remember reading somewhere, that a scientist postulated that one of the waves of plague that swept Europe happened, soon after high-gluten wheat started to be grown in great quantities.
Conclusion
The Cambodians are obviously doing something right!
Thoughts On Coeliacs And COVID-19
This article in The Times is entitled Covid-19: Being Black Does Not Put You At Greater Risk, Researchers Say.
This though is the significant paragraph in my view.
The documents also show that among younger people obesity raises the death rate fourfold, and for those in their fifties it more than doubles it.
As I am not by any means obese, it pleases me.
But it got me thinking about fellow coeliacs.
Most are built like whippets and many seem to be fit for their age.
So do we get a secondary protection against COVID-19?
How Many Diagnosed Coeliacs Have Caught COVID-19?
the coeliac charity; Coeliac UK, indicated to me, that they are doing research into the number of coeliacs, who have caught COVID-19.
Surely, one way to find out how many coeliacs are in hospital with COVID-19, would be to look at how many hospital cases are on a gluten-free diet!
Jews In The UK And COVID-19
This article on the Times of Israel is entitled Coronavirus-Related Death Toll Jumps To 458 Among UK Jews.
- According to Wikipedia in 2011, there were 263,346 Jews in the UK.
- This gives a figure of 0.174% for the percentage of Jews, who have died.
- According to UK government figures, 35,341 have died from COVID-19.
- According to Wikipedia, the UK population in mid-2019, was 66,796,807.
- This gives a figure of 0.053% for the percentage of the UK population, who have died.
From these simple figures Jews are over three times more likely to die of COVID-19, than the general population.
Why are Jews, so much more likely to die of COVID-19, than the general population?
In A Thought On Deaths Of The Elderly From Covid-19, I postulated that there could be large numbers of undiagnosed coeliacs in the over-60s, who because of compromised immune systems, would be more susceptible to the virus.
I also said that the number of undiagnosed coeliacs over sixty-five could be as high as 120,000. These would have all been born before 1960, when it became possible to detect coeliac disease in children.
I am also fairly sure, that my coeliac disease came from my Ashkenazi Jewish genes.
This second article on The Times of Israel is entitled Jewish Charity Warns Of Coeliac ‘Stigma’ As Half-A-Million Said Undiagnosed.
This is the introductory paragraph.
A Jewish charity says there is a “stigma” surrounding coeliac disease in the Jewish community, after a national charity warned that there were still half a million people in the UK who are undiagnosed.
I would assume that the half-a-million figure refers to all the population of the UK, as there are only about half that number of Jews in the UK.
Could coeliac stigma mean that there many older Jews, who are coeliac, have not been diagnosed and their poorer immune systems make them more vulnerable to COVID-19?
A Wider Picture
This article on Times of Israel is entitled How COVID-19 is hitting Jewish communities around the world.
It is well-worth reading.
Conclusion
I should say, that I’m no medic, but just a humble engineer, mathematician and statistician, who has nearly sixty years experience of analysing data.
That experience applied to coeliac disease and COVID-19, says that undiagnosed coeliac disease, is not helping our fight against COVID-19!
Is My Local COVID-19 Testing Centre Going Walk-In?
I took these pictures as I walked past the car-park, that is used as a COVID-19 testing centre at week-ends.
It looks to me, as if, they’re going to allow people to walk-in for testing!
Pedestrians Get More Space In Dalston
I took these pictures in the Kingsland Road in Dalston this morning.
It will be interesting to see how this narrowing works out.
Not just for pedestrians! But for politicians as well!
There has been a certain amount of drivers against the narrowed roads. Who will they vote for in the next election for London Mayor?
What Happened In Hackney On Friday?
These are total number of lab-confirmed cases of COVOD-19 in Hackney over the last few days.
- 9th May – 622, 0
- 10th May – 623, 1
- 11th May 624, 1
- 12th May – 624, 0
- 13th May – 624, 0
- 14th May – 626, 2
- 15th May – 626, 0
- 16th May – 637, 11
What happened on Friday?
You have to go back to the 21st of April to find a larger figure.
Could it be that the COVID-19 testers raided an illegal gathering, care home or a house with large numbers of people living in it, in close proximity?
Or could it be the fallout from the parties in Hackney Marshes and London Fields, last weekend, that were reported in Monday’s edition of The Times.
So do you reap, what you sow?
The Flexible Train For A Pandemic
Anybody, who believes that COVID-19 will be the last pandemic is an idiot!
The virus has shown, those with evil intentions to take over the world, that a pandemic, started by a weaponised virus, whether natural or man-made, can be a useful tool in your arsenal.
We must prepare for the next pandemic.
So how will we travel by train?
Current Train Interiors And The Need To Social Distance
The need to social distance will remain paramount and some of our current train interiors are better than others for passengers to remain two metres apart.
These are some typical UK train interiors.
Typical London Overground Interior
These pictures show a typical London Overground interior on their Class 378 trains and Class 710 trains.
Distancing at two-metres will reduce the capacity dramatically, but with wide doors and common sense, this layout could allow social distancing to work.
Siemens Desiro City Suburban Interior
These pictures show the interior of the two Siemens Desiro City fleets; Thameslink‘s Class 700 trains, Great Northern‘s Class 717 trains and South Western Railway‘s Class 707 trains.
As with the London Overground layout, as the trains are fairly spacious with wide doors, social distancing could probably be made to work at reduced capacity.
Four Seats And A Table
These pictures show a selection of trains, where you have four seats around a table.
Trains include Greater Anglia’s Class 379 trains, Class 745 trains, Class 755 trains, and a selection of Class 800 trains, Class 377 trains from various operators and a superb reconditioned Class 150 train from Great Western Railway.
Could these be made to work, if there was only one person or self-isolating group living together at each set of four seats?
Designing For A Pandemic
These are my thoughts on various topics.
Seating Layouts
Consider.
- As the pictures show, maintaining social distancing will be difficult on some trains.
- Could the number of seats in use, be determined by the avert level of the pandemic?
- Could seats have lights on them to show their status?
- Will companies insist on reservations?
As to the last point, some train companies are already doing this!
Luggage
Will there be limits on the luggage you can take?
Entering And Leaving The Train
Would someone with a dangerous infectious disease be more likely to pass it on, when entering or leaving a train, through a narrow doorway?
I believe coaches with narrow single end doors make social distancing impossible.
- Passengers get stuck in the bottleneck that these doors create.
- Passengers are entering and leaving through the same crowded door.
- Anybody in a wheelchair, pushing a child in a buggy or dragging a large suitcase, will make the bottleneck worse.
They are not fit for purpose in a post-COVID-19 world!
It might be possible to make the doors work using a traffic light system, which allowed passengers to leave, before any passengers were allowed to enter.
But any safe system, would be likely to increase dwell times in stations.
These pictures show the doors and entry and exit for Greater Anglia’s Class 745 and Class 755 trains.
These trains have been designed to be able to run London and Norwich services over a distance of more than a hundred miles, so the trains could be considered InterCity services in all but name.
Note.
- All doors are double and lead into a wide and spacious lobby.
- Entry and exit is level, as there is a gap filler between train and platform.
- Entry and exit in a wheelchair, pushing a buggy or wheeling a large suitcase doesn’t
Greater Anglia’s new trains would appear to be better in a post-COVID-19 world.
I also think, that these trains are better designed for the disabled, those with young children, and the elderly and just plain worn-out.
Finding A Seat
If you watch people entering a train, they often take forever to find their seat and sit down. Especially, if they’ve got a massive suitcase that won’t fit in the space provided.
Rules on boarding a train and how much luggage you can bring will be developed.
Toilets
Will visiting the toilet still be allowed? Or will toilets even be removed?
Flexibility
I think a degree of flexibility must be built into the design.
I mentioned lights on seats to show which could be used, that could be lit up according to the threat level.
Conclusion
Travelling will get more complicated.
Piers Corbyn Among Those Held In Coronavirus Lockdown Protests
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article in The Guardian.
This is the introductory paragraph.
The brother of the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was one of several protesters arrested on Saturday, as small demonstrations against the coronavirus lockdown took place across the country.
And this paragraph describes what he was saying and doing.
Corbyn’s brother, Piers, was taken away after using a megaphone to declare that 5G and the coronavirus pandemic were linked and branding the pandemic as a “pack of lies to brainwash you and keep you in order”. He also disputed the need for a vaccination.
According to his Wikipedia entry, he denies the existence of climate change. He must have interesting discussions with his brother, if this report on the BBC is to be believed.
Roche To The Rescue?
This article on the BBC is entitled Covid Antibody Test A ‘Positive Development’.
This is the introductory paragraph.
A test to find out whether people have been infected with coronavirus in the past has been approved by health officials in England.
After false starts with dodgy and unreliable Chinese tests, this certainly is a positive development.
Personally, I trust Roche and their technology, as I regularly use one of their Coaguchek devices to test my INR.
The Anonymous Widower 