Acting Quickly Can Reduce Coronavirus Death Toll In Care Homes
The title of this post is the same as that of this article in The Times.
This is the first two paragraphs.
Care homes account for almost half of all coronavirus deaths in several European countries but the number of future deaths can be reduced if measures are taken, research has found.
Between 42 per cent and 57 per cent of deaths from the virus in Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium happened in care homes, figures show.
But the article also says that Hong Kong acted quickly, after the experience of the 2003 Sars epidemic, and have had no deaths in care homes.
It appears we can learn from the experiences of other countries.
It is also my view, that the typical care home model in lots of countries is not fit for purpose!
We need a new design, that can be locked down quickly in a civilised manner.
Should Campaigning Against Vaccination Be Made A Crime Against Humanity?
Boris is reported today on the BBC and in The Times, as saying that a coronavirus vaccine is the only way we will win.
Boris is totally right!
We will not be safe until everybody is vaccinated. Vaccination has virtually conquered diseases like smallpox, polio and measles.
Perhaps campaigning against vaccination, should be a crime against humanity!
I live in Hackney, where there is a lot of measles, caused by people being against the MMR vaccine. Will these idiots accept a vaccine for Covid-19?
Birthday Parties And Weddings Among Most Risky Coronavirus ‘Super‑Spreader’ Events
The title of this post is the same as this article in The Sunday Times.
This is the introductory paragraph.
The party could be over for a while. Scientists have found that family celebrations such as birthdays and weddings, and gatherings of similar size, are among the deadliest ways to spread Covid-19. Indoor gatherings of 10 to 30 people allow one person carrying the virus to infect up to 10 others.
I doubt we’ll have gatherings of people, until we are all vaccinated.
A Surprising Question From A Doctor
I must have been about twenty-five, when I caught both chickenpox and measles at the same time from two of my children. Or I did think, that was the case, but the two youngest children must have had the MMR vaccine.
I remember, that I spent fourteen days on the sofa hardly moving, which is very unlike me.
After I was feeling better, I went to see my GP, who thought it was all over.
He then asked me if I gave blood. I replied that I didn’t!
It was only a couple of years later, when I was watching a documentary about children with leukaemia, that I heard a possible reason for his question.
- The documentary said that they gave blood with antibodies to childhood diseases to children undergoing chemotherapy.
- And my blood with both measles and chickenpox might have been very useful.
I’m publishing this post, as it has been announced today, that COVID-19 is to be treated with blood plasma, from survivors of the disease.
This article on the BBC, which is entitled Coronavirus: Thousands Signal Interest In Plasma Trial, gives more details.
COVID-19 Testing In Dalston
As I walked to Marks and Spencer, this morning, they were setting up a COVID-19 testing site, in the car park near Dalston Junction station.
Note that when I came back, there were a lot of cars queuing to get in.
Thoughts On The COVID-19 Testing
I must first congratulate all those involved in organising and carrying-out the tests.
As someone, who has analysed many large databases for patterns of perhaps marketing information, product recalls or criminal activity, 100,000 tests per day or million in ten days, is a very large amount of hopefully reliable data, that I believe can be used to answer a lot of relevant questions about the progress of this pandemic and our very boring (For me, at least!) lockdown.
I hope, that the tests collect all the right data to go along with the physical data.
But I suspect that some important scientifically-correct questions won’t be asked. For instance.
- What is your place of birth?
- What is your BMI?
- How much exercise do you do every day?
- What is your religion?
- How often do you attend a religious service?
- How many in your household?
- How many generations in your household?
- Do you have a pet that needs exercise?
- Do you have any drug habits?
- Do you have any allergies?
- Do you smoke?
- How much alcohol do you drink?
- Are you vegetarian?
Only by collecting a full database alongside the testing process, will we get maximum value out of the testing.
To Revive Economy, Think Infrastructure
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on CommonWealth.
This is the sub-title.
It worked in the Great Recession and it can work now.
The author is talking about Massachusetts in 2008, but I’m sure it would work in the UK and other countries in 2020.
Projects I would bring forward in the UK.
- Build lots of wind farms, both onshore and offshore.
- Build energy storage. I would go for Highview Power.
- Use wind energy to generate hydrogen for industrial processes. ITM Power in Rotherham, have the technology.
- Build a refuelling network for hydrogen-powered cars, buses, trucks and other vehicles.
- Add new rail stations to the network, where needed.
- Update all possible rail, tram, light rail and Underground stations so they are step-free.
- Build the electrified Huddersfield and Leeds upgrade to the TransPennine Route.
- Expand the Blackpool Tram, the Edinburgh Tram, the Manchester Metrolink, Merseyrail, the Nottingham Express Transit, the Sheffield Supertram, the Tyne and Wear Metro and the West Midlands Metro.
- Extend the Docklands Light Railway West to Charing Cross, Euston, St. Pancras and Victoria.
I would setup a construction pipeline, so all areas of the country got a share of the new infrastructure.
We must be bold.
The Death Of My Son George
In some ways our youngest son; George, was more my baby, than my wife’s!
When you have three children under three, you have to devise a system so they can all be fed, watered and managed.
In the early 1970s, I was working at home, writing software for the likes of companies like Lloyds Bank, Plessey, Ferranti and others, usually by means of a dial-up line to a company called Time Sharing Ltd. in Great Portland Street.
- So most days George sat on my desk in a plastic baby chair, as I worked.
- C would look after the two elder children, generally taking them to the park or friends.
- George was still in nappies, real not disposable. We did use a nappy service!
- I sometimes wonder, if I can still install a proper nappy on a baby!
- I would feed him as I worked.
- George also used to come with me to visit clients, I had to meet at Great Portland Street. Usually, the secretaries would steal him away.
It was a system, that worked well for all of us.
Of our three children, George was the only one, that C thought could be coeliac, as I am. Mothers know their families! We once tried to test him with a self-test kit from the Internet. but the results were inconclusive.
I now believe he was coeliac for one genetic reason. His daughter was born with a severe congenital hernia of the diaphragm and research shows this can be linked to a coeliac father.
At least I was lucky with my three boys in this respect, but it points to George being coeliac.
George worked in the music business and was the sound engineer on some of the work of Diane Charlemagne. I met Diane once, when I stood on The Fourth Plinth in Trafalgar Square, which I wrote about in Fun and Games at the Fourth Plinth.
- Diane was working as the security guard and it was an amazing coincidence, that we realised our connection through George.
- She spoke highly of his work.
Sadly Diane died of kidney cancer in 2015.
George didn’t drink, but he smoked heavily and not just tobacco. He also lived on a very gluten-rich diet of Subways and the like.
I suspect that his immune system was as good as much protection as a chocolate colander in a tsunami!
I have discussed this with doctors, who specialise in cancer and they feel that it could have contributed to his death from pancreatic cancer.
- George died at home.
- He was not in much pain due to the morphine he was controlling through a pump and the cannabis he was smoking.
- One day, he was in bed and talking to my then aristocratic girlfriend and myself, when he just expired.
- There was no drama and he just went to sleep.
A few minutes later, my girlfriend and the housekeeper, laid out the body for the undertaker.
I had been at George’s quiet death, just like I had been at the birth of all three sons.
Looking Back
George died ten years ago and his death has left some marks on my mind.
- Because of our early relationship, some of my grief for George was more like that of a mother.
- George died a peaceful death, which with modern medicine should be almost a right for many!
- His death has driven me to fund and take part in medical research, especially for pancreatic cancer.
- I also feel strongly, we should steer clear of cannabis, eat sensibly and check as many as possible for coeliac disease.
But now above all, I have no fear of Covid-19 or death.
Thoughts On Coeliacs And Covid-19 In Cambridgeshire
I was diagnosed as a coeliac by Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge.
- One of the consultants there told me, that they had a very high number of coeliacs on the books and the number was one of the highest in the country.
- I also used to eat in Carluccios in the centre of Cambridge and the manager once told me that they did an Annual Dinner for the local branch of Coeliac UK.
- He also told me, that they had the highest gluten-free sales in the group.
I think it is fairly likely that Cambridge has a lot of diagnosed coeliacs.
But it is not a place with health problems, that jump out of the pages of the tabloids.
My theory is that because Cambridge does a lot of gastroenterology research, they have a good rate in finding coeliacs.
So how is Cambridgeshire doing in the COVID-19 pandemic?
In Five Eastern Counties, I said this about COVID-19 in Cambridgeshire and Suffolk, where a lot of patients go to Addenbrooke’s.
- Cambridgeshire – 673 of 852,523 or 0.08%
- Suffolk – 936 of 768,556 or 0.12%
Both seem to be low. How do they compare to Oxfordshire?
- Oxfordshire – 1515 of 887, 564 or 0.17%
I wouldn’t have thought that Oxfordshire would have a rate twice that of Cambridgeshire!
- The counties are similar in population.
- Both have proportions of industry, farming and academia
- The cities of Oxford and Cambridge are similar in character
Could it be that Addenbrooke’s has diagnosed most of the coeliacs in Cambridgeshire?
I’m no medical expert, but someone should look at it!
A Thought On Deaths Of The Elderly From Covid-19
It has been shown, that a lot of the deaths from Covid-19 are over seventy.
I am seventy-two and a coeliac, which was diagnosed when I was fifty.
As my GP practice nurse said at the time of my diagnosis, as we read my doctors notes together, the signs are there of coeliac disease in a lot of my visits to a doctor.
So why wasn’t I diagnosed earlier?
- There wasn’t a test for young children until 1960, so my early bad health couldn’t be diagnosed.
- No clue as to my problems was obtained until an elderly but extremely competent locum decided that my blood should be analysed as a fiftieth birthday present. I had no B12 and was running on empty.
- Eventually, I was sent to Addenbrooke’s and I was diagnosed by a blood test. I suspect it was a trial of a new genetic test, as I got the result by post in two days.
How many undiagnosed coeliacs are there in those over seventy, who because they are coeliacs, have a compromised immune system?
I would be undiagnosed but for that elderly locum!
How many other coeliacs are there in the UK population?
- Age UK has a figure of twelve million who are over 65 in the UK.
- If 1-in-100, as stated by Coeliac UK, in the UK are coeliac, that is 120,000 coeliacs over 65.
Note that as of today 177,388 have been diagnosed with Covid-19.
Conclusion
Many of those 120,000 coeliacs will have been born before 1960 and have a high probably of not having been diagnosed. for the simple reason, that a childhood test for coeliac disease didn’t exist.
Will these undiagnosed coeliacs have a compromised immune system, that makes them more susceptible to Covid-19?
It has been said, that a good immune system helps you fight Covid-19!
The Anonymous Widower 